WI: Brown calls an election in 2007

[prime-minister]

Probably been done before, but it's an intriguing concept to me. What if Gordon Brown had called a snap election in 2007 to seek a personal mandate?

Could he have held on on the back of the Brown bounce? Would there have been a coalition of some kind? Any thoughts are welcome.

 

[Pseudo]

Probably been done before, but it's an intriguing concept to me. What if Gordon Brown had called a snap election in 2007 to seek a personal mandate?

Could he have held on on the back of the Brown bounce? Would there have been a coalition of some kind? Any thoughts are welcome.

My instant reaction is that he would have won an election with a slightly reduced majority in the autumn of 2007 since the financial crisis had yet to hit and it was backing off from the autumn election in OTL that started to see confidence in his leadership wane. I'm not sure whether he'd win a sprig 2012 election, but he could hold out until autumn 2012 and hope to benefit from the post-olympic feel good factor, maybe he might co-opt the "This is for everyone" slogan and run with it.

 

[Thande]

I tend to think that the polls would initially suggest that Labour would make gains on 2005, but that would evaporate over the course of the campaign and it would end up with Labour taking some losses and ending with a majority of say 25-45, depending on how disaster-prone Brown's campaign performance ends up being.

Cameron would stay on--it was always understood that he would be a two-election project and he'd make some gains of seats in places like Kent and Essex that barely hung on for Labour in 2005--but the Lib Dems would probably take some losses to the Tories and ditch Menzies Campbell.

Scotland would be fascinating, with both Labour and the Lib Dems led by Scots and the Lib Dems trying to defend some Iraq-driven 2005 gains that might snap back with Brown replacing Blair.

Brown would then hold on for the next 5 years as the financial crisis hit, survive several rather half-hearted coup attempts and cabinet resignations, and end up going down to the Tories in 2012 both out of fatigue and the economy remaining in dire straits. Hard to say how big or narrow a defeat it would be though.

 

[Will Lucky]

I still think the expenses saga will be interesting to watch in this Parliament.

 

[Thande]

I still think the expenses saga will be interesting to watch in this Parliament.

I forgot about that, that would certainly have a different impact depending on when and how it breaks.

 

[RepMR]

I think it'd be very likely if the financial crisis, expenses scandal and other damaging crises to Brown's leadership go as they do OTL then he'll likely be forced to resign in either 2009 or 2010 as there would still be time to run in a new PM before 2012. One big reason as to why this didn't happen OTL is because nobody wanted to roll and risk being PM for less than 18 months

 

[Ivir Baggins]

I think it'd be very likely if the financial crisis, expenses scandal and other damaging crises to Brown's leadership go as they do OTL then he'll likely be forced to resign in either 2009 or 2010 as there would still be time to run in a new PM before 2012. One big reason as to why this didn't happen OTL is because nobody wanted to roll and risk being PM for less than 18 months

So PM Miliband?

 

[The Oncoming Storm]

Something else to consider is what if the HMRC discs fiasco came out more or less as IOTL which could have been right in the middle of the campaign. Alistair Darling was first notified of their loss on November 10th and revealed it to Parliament on the 20th. If they admit it in the middle of the campaign then their agenda is overshadowed for the remainder, but if they try to hide it for a while longer it could either be leaked by the press and admitting that they knew after polling day will look dishonest and there'll be quite a reaction from voters who think they were deceived.

 

[Meadow]

So PM Miliband?

Impossible to say. Mili-D was The Next Leader IOTL and it didn't happen for him. Balls would make a much more competitive run for the leadership ITTL, and might win. Mili-E probably wouldn't run. Alan Johnson probably doesn't want to be leader in any TL, but he'd stand a chance.

Basically, Mili-D stands a good chance, but he stood a very good chance IOTL - and he lost.

 

[Will Lucky]

Any of the older hands at the wheel, Johnson, Straw, Darling or Harman for example stand out as succeeding halfway through the Parliament. But it would still be the scenario where the Conservatives are maintaining 15 point leads. Some might want one of them to take the fall if defeat looks likely in a couple of years time.

If the Conservatives were to campaign with Lisbon as a centre of the of their campaign that might negate the Iron cast guarantee in the future...maybe.

And of course what state are the Liberals in? Presumably they've lost about 10-15 seats to the Conservatives and Labour which has its obvious butterflies.

 

[Pseudo]

If Brown fails to achieve a majority but Labour remains the largest party does he give Campbell electoral reform without a referendum, as he offered to Clegg in 2010? If so, that'll really make the next election interesting.

 

[Meadow]

If Brown fails to achieve a majority but Labour remains the largest party does he give Campbell electoral reform without a referendum, as he offered to Clegg in 2010? If so, that'll really make the next election interesting.

He wouldn't be as desperate as in 2010, so I think a referendum would be part of the deal. It might be AV+, though (Brown allegedly toyed with putting it in The Next Manifesto when he came in as PM!) which could indeed make things interesting.

 

[AdmiralBlake]

Im much more pessimistic about the size of Labour's majority, im thinking around 10-15 seats. In that situation, and assuming that there'd probably be by-election's due to expenses in 2009-10, what are the possibilities of Lib Lab Pact 2: Callaghanesque bugaloo?

 

[Maeglin]

Im much more pessimistic about the size of Labour's majority, im thinking around 10-15 seats. In that situation, and assuming that there'd probably be by-election's due to expenses in 2009-10, what are the possibilities of Lib Lab Pact 2: Callaghanesque bugaloo?

For starters I can't see the SNP voting to bring down another Labour Government.