WI: Brittany as a French Portugal

On a basic level, could the duchy of Brittany ever reach a point where it becomes an outward-looking, benign nation on France's north-western border? Looking at it, Portugal and Brittany do share some similarities, such as:
- Cultures that are similar but district from their larger neighbors
- Long histories of autonomy from the nearby lords
- Large stretches of coastline

The main differences that I can find are a maritime tradition, a strong economy, and an incentive for France to leave Brittany independent. So, is there a way for Brittany to remain independent of France (probably with an averted War of Breton Succession or some way to stop Charles VIII's marriage to Anne of Brittany), develop a strong maritime tradition, and become explorers of the new world? I would think that they'd be much more like the Dutch than the Portuguese in their early days - trading the commodities of day-to-day life, like grain, salt, and timber, rather than becoming involved with the spice trade.

What effects could Breton colonies have? Could the northeastern US be colonized by the Bretons? Could they be a benign trading partner to the French, like the Portuguese were with the Spanish in the 15th century?
 
You'd have to begin with the Dukes of Brittany not being in the habit to invite the English Kings to invade France everytime they feel like rebelling against the French Kings.

In fact, I think you need to start way earlier. If you manage to avoid the Normans reducing the Kingdom of Brittany to the County of Brittany, that would be a good start. Any PoD later than that, I do not see working.
 
- Cultures that are similar but district from their larger neighbors
Not exactly.
Nobles and urban elites were already francised, at the point they made French the "official language" of Brittany more than one century before France.

Furthermore, Brittany, at the contrary of Portugal, harbour a french speaking communauty representing from 1/4 to 1/2 of the whole region.

- Long histories of autonomy from the nearby lords
Again, that's not the case there.
Autonomy or independence was fluctuating. In some periods, breton lords were indeed largely autonomous but Brittany was often influenced if not taken over during its history. Franks, Capetians, Normans, Angevins (before and after they were on English throne), etc.

It's explained by the fact geography doesn't really help Brittany to have a defensible position up to Lower Brittany (that is admittedly the place where Breton was more preserved and that knew more independent position towards France, but also a poorer region).

Furthermore, and again at the difference of Iberic peninsula, Brittany can't expand in richer and foreign (as from a different religion) regions as Portugal did (while, admittedly, they raided western France). What's more important : France can't as well. Without Al-Andalus, it's probably that Spain would include *Portugal as it did historically.
I think there's more or less the same reasoning to apply there.

The main differences that I can find are a maritime tradition, a strong economy, and an incentive for France to leave Brittany independent.
These features weren't that much different than what existed in France at the same time, on all the atlantic coast, and I don't see a real incitative to leave it independent, seeing that it was considered as part of the kingdom.
In fact, French kings regularly intervened in Brittany, directly or indirectly.

So, is there a way for Brittany to remain independent of France (probably with an averted War of Breton Succession or some way to stop Charles VIII's marriage to Anne of Brittany), develop a strong maritime tradition, and become explorers of the new world?
Brittany wasn't independent from France, at least not since the Carolingian era. With more or less important periods of autonomy, it was considered as part of the kingdom.
(Mostly because due to regular divisions or wars between Breton lords, the royal support was a decisive tool to gain the upper hand).

It was at the point that John II tried to make the french king his successor, plan that was rejected and eventually led to a civil war between Pro-Valois and Pro-Plantagenet claimants.

At the end of HYW, a series of small conflicts won by Valois made clear that depsite the independent stance of Brittany during the previous conflict wasn't to be tolerated by Valois. Let's be clear : Brittany didn't had the military means to win a war at this point.

- - -​

Not that Brittany couldn't gain a real independence (the only way to really ensure it last), but you'll need a far earlier PoD. I develloped that a bit there for what could be the "most recent" PoD.

Basically :

1) Bretons defeat Guillaume Longue-Epee in 931, that dies, and keep maritime Brittany
2) Breton rulers manage to keep the whole thing more or less unified, depsite recurrent troubles

And that says nothing, of course, about tentatives from Normans or Angevines, not talking of France. Still a good bet, I think.
 
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