What if the British ended up ruling Western Hispaniola (possibly named Saint Dominic Island) instead of the French?
The Spanish are totally going to militarize in response:The French either focus on Jamaica or somewhere else. The Spanish may militarise and populate their share of Hispaniola due to a hostile neighbour nearby.
An English Haiti is pointing a gun at New Spain and New Granada in a way Jamaica could only dream of. You've a number of excellent harbors in the region, its easily defensible (and easy to retreat back to) and its situated nicely in the middle of the Caribbean, allowing it to serve as an excellent launching point and trading station in a way that no other Caribbean colony could be.
Frankly I'd expect it to be a major naval base and pirate enclave for decades to come with piracy and supporting the navy being just as much important to Britain as sugar and coffee would be. I'd also expect a massive increase in smuggling with Spanish Santo Domingo in comparison to OTL, which combined with increased raids is going to force the Spanish crown to act in response to that. Wouldn't surprise me if the English attempt to raid or straight up invade Veracruz at one point.
Furthermore I'd expect the colonial balance of power to shift more south, with the Brits focusing more on Louisiana and their southern colonies as both areas would reinforce each other very well, with Saint Dominic providing defense and, say, Louisiana and the Carolinas providing raw materials and later slaves, (given that they were OTL net exporters of slaves due to natural population growth). Perhaps it might spur some proto-industry down south to supply Princeport's armada. New England in turn may or may not end up neglected, as men and money are diverted south. Which might prompt rebellion, or not. Its hard for me to say.
Dunno, the US equivalent might actually be more Brazil than America as we know it and might be incredibly lopsided, with the population and industry geared in the South. I doubt St Dominic would rebel with her northern sisters. Leaving in a rebellion doesn't really benefit St Dominic; they'd depend too much on the Royal Navy, alongside the European market and there's not much they can earn in trade with other colonies in the area.
However, this increased pressure on Spain is going to have a number of impacts, and thus the Spanish crown might be forced to do its Bourbon esque reforms earlier in the face of British pressure on their trading ports and smuggling. That means more trading ports, and perhaps Colonial wide free trade in order to divert smuggling.
Suppressing rebellions is not going to be easier than the French had it. Slaves will still likely had overwhelming numerical advantage (probably even more so, as English colonies always had less free men of color than comparison to the Romance Speaking ones). As well there is the same geographic pressures that made monitoring and stopping slave rebellions insanely difficult (Mountainous jungle and semiarid terrain combined with disease and lack of infrastructure in the borderlands). High population density (which is inevitable in St Dominic) only adds to slave advantages in wartime, given the ease of organization, coordination and logistics for slave armies in comparison to planning a slave rebellion in say, Brazil.
The one advantage the English had over the French I suppose is that they tended to not be picky about where they're slaves came from, and forcibly integrated the various ethnic groups of their slaves (instead of keeping them separate like the Portuguese) which tended to erode their native cultures. Of course that could backfire by creating a Pan African sentiment amongst slaves.
As for taking the entire Island, I'm eh on that. Conquering the eastern side is a lot harder than people give credit too given the mountain ranges and semi arid regions making marching an army insanely difficult even today, especially if you're doing it from a power base in the west since you have to go through the Cordillera Central and/or Sierra de Neiba. Even a naval invasion of Santo Domingo and Puerto Plata is tricky, and should those be taken then you have to deal with the northern population centers deep inland. To say nothing that the Sword of Damocles a hundred miles west of Santo Domingo prompting Spain to send more settlers immediately.
There won't be a Baez with a British hold on western Hispaniola. He'd be butterflied away. The conditions that led to an annexationist party would also be removed in response to Spanish militarization and economic reform.It would be interesting seeing how things unfold later on should its neighbor the Dominican Republic under President Baez successfully convince the US to annex his nation, combined with no Teller Amendment and the British selling many of its West Indie territories in the aftermath of WW1 to the US.
There won't be a Baez with a British hold on western Hispaniola. He'd be butterflied away. The conditions that led to an annexationist party would also be removed in response to Spanish militarization and economic reform.
Youre not getting an American Hispaniola in more or less any circumstances where the British have Haiti.Perhaps. If a British West Hispaniola potentially butterflies away President Baez, what would be the best scenario to lay the groundwork for an eventual US Hispaniola beyond a Dominican Republic composed of all of the island or another group besides the French and British ruling West Hispaniola (perhaps the Dutch or another group)?
Depending on when this happens then this will probably undercut much of the economic development of the US south
Youre not getting an American Hispaniola in more or less any circumstances where the British have Haiti.
No way in hell the Brits would allow anyone access to a naval base in Samana. And also as Ive mentioned above, the Spanish reforms put in place after the seizing of the western third of the island would make an annexationist faction be butterflied away.
Sure, but that doesnt mean they wouldnt court the eastern side and use influence to deny any American annexation attempts. Tbh I think a US as we know it would be butterflied away due to the change in economics in the Caribbean.You have already mentioned the issues of a British West Hispaniola.
Youre changing a lot. The Devastations of 1606 being averted dramatically alters the situation on every level.So to go in a different direction. What would be the impact of a completely Spanish Hispaniola that followed along similar lines to what eventually became OTL Dominican Republic or a Dutch West Hispaniola (which Spain later formally cedes to the Dutch as it did to the French in OTL) that is considered less of a threat compared to if it were under the British?
You can't.For a Spanish Hispaniola or a Dutch Haiti, the question would be how to recreate a similar scenario to what happened in OTL French ruled / Post-French Haiti yet make both a more attractive prospect to be annexed to the US compared to OTL.