WI: British naval Cold War strategy?

Riain

Banned
I read a comment today along the lines of any small European country could raise a division for NATO but only Britain could contribute a strike carrier to Strike Fleet Atlantic.

WI in the mid to late 60s as Britain withdrew from the world role ahe gave the highest priority to the RN forces with NATO roles, and only after these were met would BAOR and RAFG receive equipment and funding? Would it be a viable strategy? What gear would be bought and what would be sacrificed to get it?
 
Are we going to see the CV's going into RN service as a result of this change? That is one thing I would like to have seen happen, back when. My own question would be, can renting out flight training on such a ship make enough of a dent in it's overall costs, such that the RN could have a second one in service?
 

Riain

Banned
I think the major naval responsibility of the RN was Strike Group 2 of Strike Fleet Atlantic . This was downgraded to ASW group 2 when Ark Royal was decommissioned. At some point SFA had amphibious forces added to it, and the RM and Dutch Marines were tasked with defending Norway.

So I think 2 carriers would be required, one always available for SG2 and the other in refit, training/workup or out of area tasks but chopped to SG2 in WW3. Plus a decent amphibious flotilla; commando carrier and LPD.

The decision chronology was back to front: it was decided to ditch the carrier force to save money but keep the far East commitment. Once it became obvious that the far east commitment was the real drain in 1968 it was ended. Ideally these decisions would be reversed, the commitment dropped and then the fleet cut to suit the NATO role, which would allow 2 carriers and an amphibious squadron.

Going forward would the Army have to lose a division and the RAF a Group in 76 and/or 81 defense reviews to keep this RN strike fleet up to strength? Would that be a good trade off?
 

Pangur

Donor
I recall some discussion in the early 80`s re specialisation which to a large degree is what you are suggesting. At the time what was being put forward was that the UK concentrated on AWS rather than a strike carrier. If they did got with the latter a few matters would surely need to adressed - one carrier or two? and next up would be the other ships required to build out the carrier fleet. Thats all going to be very expensive and if the budgets stay the same then suggested something else has to go. - BAOR at the time would be first to be seriously cut back as well as the RAF loosing a fair chunk of the Tornado builds
 

Riain

Banned
I don't think it would be too much more than OTL. CVA01 & 02 would be built instead of the Ark Royal and Tiger rebuilds and Invincible and Illustrious with CVA01 manpower coming from the 2 unconverted ships. Hermes probably still gets the commando/ASW conversion so her manpower is the same as OTL. Eagle then CVA02 would use about 900 men from OTL Blake and the rest would have to come from elsewhere, RAF/Army. The RAF would not get the Eagle's (CVA02's) CAG so would be short 3 squadrons.

4 Bristols would be built, but 3 or 4 T42s wouldn't so providing the money and manpower. The OTL Invincible class Ark Royal could be built as a commando carrier to replace Hermes in the 80s.

It would be in the 80s that the real crunch would come in manpower, I wonder if brigades might be sacrificed to find the allocation.
 

Riain

Banned
Dunno, but as David Hobbs said, anyone can find a brigade and even a division but a fleet carrier with an all-weather, long-range CAG is beyond virtually all NATO countries.

If you go along with that idea then who cares if the Army is short a brigade and the RAF a wing, as long as the strategic key CBG and Amphibious Group are kept up to strength and meeting their commitment.
 
I've read somewhere that the RN was still the 3rd largest navy (after the US Navy and the Soviet Navy) well into the 1980's. If so, when did the Soviet Navy surpass the Royal Navy, and when did the RN lose its 3rd largest status?
 
The point of NATO was not to win a cold war conflict but to deter the Soviet Union from starting one. The purpose of the BAOR (until quite late in the day) was not to stop a Soviet attack but to persuade them that the loss of the BAOR would be considered serious enough that nuclear weapons would be used. Just like the US ground troops in Europe the BAOR was a hostage/tripwire intended as a sign of commitment to the alliance and to Western Germany in particular. This role could not be fulfilled by naval or air forces based in the UK, so reducing its manpower would weaken the alliance, and was why a political crisis in NATO erupted every time the UK sought to redeploy troops from Germany to the UK (to reduce foreign exchange costs). The question of how much money needed to be spent on equipment for the BAOR is a much more open one, but military pride and political credibility played roles here, while the suggestion above seems to be that manpower was a key constraint in any case, as was a treaty signed by the British promising to maintain certain troop levels on the continent.

In other words a weakened BAOR would make sense from a purely British perspective as long as everyone else continued to believe the UK would risk a nuclear exchange to defend Bonn or Berlin, but this condition probably wouldn't hold as the belief would probably be affected by a reduction in the BAOR in an unquantifiable way. Every other NATO member faced a similar dilemma, namely how much could they reduce their predeployed forces without damaging their perceived commitment to the alliance, but the perceived commitment of the US (especially) and the UK were fundamental to the alliance working so once in office politicians tended to be reluctant to make changes with a huge but unquantifiable risk attached.
 
The point of NATO was not to win a cold war conflict but to deter the Soviet Union from starting one. The purpose of the BAOR (until quite late in the day) was not to stop a Soviet attack but to persuade them that the loss of the BAOR would be considered serious enough that nuclear weapons would be used. Just like the US ground troops in Europe the BAOR was a hostage/tripwire intended as a sign of commitment to the alliance and to Western Germany in particular. This role could not be fulfilled by naval or air forces based in the UK, so reducing its manpower would weaken the alliance, and was why a political crisis in NATO erupted every time the UK sought to redeploy troops from Germany to the UK (to reduce foreign exchange costs). The question of how much money needed to be spent on equipment for the BAOR is a much more open one, but military pride and political credibility played roles here, while the suggestion above seems to be that manpower was a key constraint in any case, as was a treaty signed by the British promising to maintain certain troop levels on the continent.

In other words a weakened BAOR would make sense from a purely British perspective as long as everyone else continued to believe the UK would risk a nuclear exchange to defend Bonn or Berlin, but this condition probably wouldn't hold as the belief would probably be affected by a reduction in the BAOR in an unquantifiable way. Every other NATO member faced a similar dilemma, namely how much could they reduce their predeployed forces without damaging their perceived commitment to the alliance, but the perceived commitment of the US (especially) and the UK were fundamental to the alliance working so once in office politicians tended to be reluctant to make changes with a huge but unquantifiable risk attached.

In other word from a NATO Centric POV a strong BOAR and strong RAFG was seen as a 'must have' while the RN having a strike carrier capability was seen as a 'very nice to have' but only after Amphibious and ASW capability (both of which would support the Central Europe centric strategy - holding Norway and Defending Convoys bringing reinforcements and supplies etc)

Today we see a situation where the need for BOAR and RAFG has gone and the danger of hundreds of SSNs, SSGNs and SS swamping the North Atlantic have also gone - so the next desirable thing is a strike carrier and Amphibious group which is where the UK are arriving at today after waking from 10 - 15 years of the Peace dividend and adventures in the middle east.

But back then Britain had to be shown to be strong in the region as an example to others that the UKs main commitment was the on going security of western Europe. Therefore Strike Carries dropped off the end of the 'I want' list.

Perhaps if other European Nations stood up more forces, France remains a core member of NATO (Perhaps also sharing the Strike carrier role) - Britain might be able to put more effort into the more technical and challenging tasks such as a maintaining capability for a modern CBG

Say France commits to Maintaining 2 modern Decks as does the UK - ensuring that the 'European' NATO can Guarantee 1 and probably 2 CBGs. That might work.
 

Riain

Banned
The point of NATO was not to win a cold war conflict but to deter the Soviet Union from starting one. The purpose of the BAOR (until quite late in the day) was not to stop a Soviet attack but to persuade them that the loss of the BAOR would be considered serious enough that nuclear weapons would be used. Just like the US ground troops in Europe the BAOR was a hostage/tripwire intended as a sign of commitment to the alliance and to Western Germany in particular. This role could not be fulfilled by naval or air forces based in the UK, so reducing its manpower would weaken the alliance, and was why a political crisis in NATO erupted every time the UK sought to redeploy troops from Germany to the UK (to reduce foreign exchange costs). The question of how much money needed to be spent on equipment for the BAOR is a much more open one, but military pride and political credibility played roles here, while the suggestion above seems to be that manpower was a key constraint in any case, as was a treaty signed by the British promising to maintain certain troop levels on the continent.

In other words a weakened BAOR would make sense from a purely British perspective as long as everyone else continued to believe the UK would risk a nuclear exchange to defend Bonn or Berlin, but this condition probably wouldn't hold as the belief would probably be affected by a reduction in the BAOR in an unquantifiable way. Every other NATO member faced a similar dilemma, namely how much could they reduce their predeployed forces without damaging their perceived commitment to the alliance, but the perceived commitment of the US (especially) and the UK were fundamental to the alliance working so once in office politicians tended to be reluctant to make changes with a huge but unquantifiable risk attached.

Assuming this simplistic view is true, I would say it's partly true at best, why is 53,000 (in 1967) the right number of hostages and not 52,000 or 51,000?

What about the deterrent value of 1 or 2 fleet carriers fighting REFORGER units through, supporting the Amphibious operations in Norway and fighting the Soviet Navy in its own backyard? Why can't the carriers count as hostages too : if you sink a carrier and overrun BAOR you'll eat Polaris?
 
Cutting a brigade from BAOR does not necessarily mean more sailors for the RN. Boots on the ground do have more symbolism than ships over the distant horizon.
 

Riain

Banned
Cutting a brigade from BAOR does not necessarily mean more sailors for the RN. Boots on the ground do have more symbolism than ships over the distant horizon.

It depends on how you look at these things, if British governments prioritize the RN contribution to NATO over that of BAOR/RAFG then these would lose forces when the pressure to cut is applied.

As for symbolism, I doubt that the Soviets cared for it as much as they cared about military capability. To put it into perspective if the British lost a division NORTHAG and CENTAG would still have something like 34 divisions but if Britain kept 2 strike carriers in service the number of carriers in the Atlantic would go from 6 to 8. To me this is more symbolic and represents something that only Britain could provide.
 
As for symbolism, I doubt that the Soviets cared for it as much as they cared about military capability. To put it into perspective if the British lost a division NORTHAG and CENTAG would still have something like 34 divisions but if Britain kept 2 strike carriers in service the number of carriers in the Atlantic would go from 6 to 8. To me this is more symbolic and represents something that only Britain could provide.
I think it's more Britain will only use nukes if they lose men in the boar. If the BOAR is cut there's no chance Britain will lose nukes so we have a greater chance of a conventional war. Not sure it's right but it could be.

Would it really go from 6 to 8. Perhaps I am being somewhat paranoid but I feel that we would be as likely to see a cut in American Atlantic carriers if Britain have a few in service.



 

Riain

Banned
I think it's more Britain will only use nukes if they lose men in the boar. If the BOAR is cut there's no chance Britain will lose nukes so we have a greater chance of a conventional war. Not sure it's right but it could be.

Would it really go from 6 to 8. Perhaps I am being somewhat paranoid but I feel that we would be as likely to see a cut in American Atlantic carriers if Britain have a few in service.



BAOR/RAFG would not be gutted to provide CVA01/02, a new Commando carrier and 4 T82s to the RN because Britain built 3 Invincibles, Bristol and 14 T42s IOTL. The RN only has to provide the manning difference between 2 Invincible and 2 CVA and 3 or 4 T42 and 3 T82. This might be 3000 men or so from the Army/RAF, given 1/3 deployment that means a cut of 1000 men in Germany. Surely if 53,000 is enough to eat a Polaris then 52,000 is too.

IIRC post Vietnam the USN had 12/13 carriers, half of them allocated to the Atlantic Fleet. I think that the forces in the Med had 2 on station while those allocated to the Atlantic spent most of their time in the Western Atlantic and had to cross the ocean in WW3. If the RN built 2 CVA 1 would be in the eastern Atlantic all the time and would be joined by 2 USN CV in WW3, which is a massive increase of presence.

The more I look at it and break down the philosophy the more it looks reasonable to me.
 
As I pointed out months ago there are number of ways the 1960/70s RN could fund CVA-01/02. The difficulty would be staffing which could be done by reducing the number of ASW Frigates etc. The ASW mission could be relegated to other NATO members.

BAOR/RAFG is more important than RN
 
Last edited:
From a NATO perspective, what's the NATO value of another strike carrier vs. better ASW/more boots the ground? From a naval perspective, the best thing the Brits could do was keep the Channel and North Sea free and clear of Soviet subs so as to keep SLOC open. And boots in Germany was always at a premium, regardless as to where they were coming from so another brigade always matters.

We had a long thread about the role of airpower in a hypothetical conventional WWIII. Naval power works the same way. No point in controlling the seas if the Red Army is crossing the Rhine before adequate reinforcements get there. And one more strike carrier just wont matter enough to take resources away from the Army or ASW.
 

Riain

Banned
@Riain I's symbolism to our NATO allies, not the Soviets. It says we're willing to shed blood to defend their countries and not just retreat behind the North Sea and the Channel.

Fair enough, but again let me stress that BAOR/RAFG are not going to be disbanded, they will lose less than 5% of its peacetime deployed strength in return for the deployed naval strength to be at least doubled. What's more the fighting strength need not be cut quite that much if the forces are kept whole in Britain and deployed when needed, like the 2nd infantry division.
 
That's fair enough but cuts to the army do not automatically equal increases in strength of the navy. It's not as if you can turn squaddies into Matelos.
 
Top