WI British evacuate Gibraltar

The population of Gibraltar is under 30,000. What if, at some point during tensions between the UK and Spain, the British decide to just evacuate Gibraltar's civilian population and find new homes for them in the British Isles, while keeping the military base. There would still be transient military personnel and civilian workers, just no permanent civilian presence. The two likely times for this would be the 1930s and the late 1960s/ early 1970s. Is this POD of no consequence except to the households immediately affected?
 
IMHO hard, as Gibraltar is maybe the most strategic point in all European coasts and any reduction of UK presence there would demonstrate a kind of military fragility, even if the base is kept
During the 1930s Gibraltar was strategic for all routes between UK and Middle East and India (via Suez), Spain in chaos and the Royal Navy still the most powerful in the world
As for 1960/70s, we should remember that Spain wasn’t a NATO member and Morroco a member of the Non Aligned Countries...this time pressure to avoid any disengagement from Gibraltar would come from the US, for which a non-NATO Gibraltar would mean a weakness into the control of Soviet accesses to the Atlantic
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evacuation_of_the_Gibraltarian_civilian_population_during_World_War_II

I didn't realize that. What if they had done the same in 1969, when Spain closed the border?

Spain closing the border is not an issue if the only people on the rock are military personnel (without dependents) who are somewhat used to long supply lines and hardship conditions. You just removed several thousand hostages in any negotiations with Spain. Without a civilian population, the place could become the British version of Guantanamo.
 
What if they had done the same in 1969, when Spain closed the border?

Spain closing the border is not an issue if the only people on the rock are military personnel (without dependents) who are somewhat used to long supply lines and hardship conditions. You just removed several thousand hostages in any negotiations with Spain. Without a civilian population, the place could become the British version of Guantanamo.
What's the advantage to GB of doing so? Did most of the civilians at the time not live and work within Gibraltar and trade via shipping so they should manage and having the civilian population makes the British claim stronger and make the Spanish actions less reasonable and they cant claim to simply be guarding a MoD base from interference?
The hostages are really only hostages if Spain was willing to go to war with GB (and presumably US/NATO) by attacking in 69 this is far worse than the falklands in 82 the V bombers will have the range to inflict significant even if none nuclear revenge....
 
What's the advantage to GB of doing so? Did most of the civilians at the time not live and work within Gibraltar and trade via shipping so they should manage and having the civilian population makes the British claim stronger and make the Spanish actions less reasonable and they cant claim to simply be guarding a MoD base from interference?
The hostages are really only hostages if Spain was willing to go to war with GB (and presumably US/NATO) by attacking in 69 this is far worse than the falklands in 82 the V bombers will have the range to inflict significant even if none nuclear revenge....

Hypothetically speaking, if an armed conflict between Spain and the UK where to occur in the late 1960s or early 1970s with regards to Gibraltar, If the British where able to win and win decisively enough at that, what are the odds of the border of Gibraltar being further altered in favor of the UK?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disputed_status_of_the_isthmus_between_Gibraltar_and_Spain

If Spain where the aggressor, personally, I would not be surprised if the UK forces occupied and incorporated the northern portion of the neutral ground on the isthmus linking Gibraltar with Spain. Granted it would probably not be very heavily developed. I could see the UK easily adding an additional battalion or two of troops on top of the existing local garrison.
 

Ramontxo

Donor
I would really love Franco to try this an lose a short fast war. But sadly he going to war alone against the UK, a NATO nation, is ASB territory.
 
going to war alone against the UK, a NATO nation, is ASB territory.
The real problem for Spain is that Gibraltar is indisputably in Europe, It might not just be UK v Spain......
Article 5
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force,
what are the odds of the border of Gibraltar being further altered in favor of the UK?
Close to zero, nobody on the British/Nato side wants border changes even favourable one as they set a precedent that things can still be changed....
 
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