All that is true, but Hitler is still a very shrewd man. I'm going off other people ITT who are saying that Hitler and the top brass thought the French and British would stand by as they did in the Rhineland, Austria, Munich and the annexation of Bohemia. If there are Allied troops in Poland, there is no way for him to deny it.
WI. British and French Troops in Poland.
- Thread starter tallthinkev
- Start date
All that is true, but Hitler is still a very shrewd man. I'm going off other people ITT who are saying that Hitler and the top brass thought the French and British would stand by as they did in the Rhineland, Austria, Munich and the annexation of Bohemia. If there are Allied troops in Poland, there is no way for him to deny it.
This isn't early to mid 1940s Hitler.
Hitler at this point was less demented and more calculating and cautious. The dementia and drug use was just starting to take its toll on his judgement by 39.
Invading is not out of the question, but he would know if Stalin backs out on the invasion he is screwed so he either gets a jointly timed invasion and closer German/Soviet cooperation or its a no go.
Honest question. If the Allies have men in Poland (let's say, after the First Vienna Award) then Hitler's first real aggression of the war may be against France. Presuming that the Allies are actively training and holding joint exercises with the Poles, just how many men will they call up before a France 1939 invasion?
Hitler was not that demented in 1939 as the Poles would invade from the East.
Could if the Poles do nothing or ally with Germany and the same strategy is adapted as it was in 1940.
Wouldn't the French and British be operating on the older plan (not the Dyle plan) for defense? And this would also butterfly the Sickle Cut. The original German plan was essentially to occupy Belgium and Northern France to use as a base to attack Britain and force them to surrender from the air. It wasn't a good plan...
There is no BEF in Sept 1 1939 (in fact, all their armor would be in Poland ATL.) Plus, there is no French Conscription. Germany would outnumber France and depending upon their speed, probably attack through Belgium and possibly out maneuver the French (I am not sold on this, but it is possible.)
Poland if they are smart join the war, but the most they can really hope for is to fight a long hard slog in East Prussia, with French/British support. The Germans would have enough screening divisions to prevent an attack of mainland Germany from Poland.
My personal opinion is the France cannot be knocked out of the war that quickly, though Germany might be able to cut off channel ports and much of France's industry. France would not be in any shape to attack in 1940 (and neither would Britain.) I still don't think Poland could really threaten Germany that same year. If Italy can be swung to the Allies, then perhaps the war is over by 1941 with an Allied victory. If not, it depends whether Germany can really knock out France in 1940 or if Colonial troops, new French conscripts, and British equipment can make it work in holding out.
I am personally not sold that the Germans are strong enough to actually get through Belgium and the French Army at this point in 1939. I leave that for others to argue.
Poland if they are smart join the war, but the most they can really hope for is to fight a long hard slog in East Prussia, with French/British support. The Germans would have enough screening divisions to prevent an attack of mainland Germany from Poland.
My personal opinion is the France cannot be knocked out of the war that quickly, though Germany might be able to cut off channel ports and much of France's industry. France would not be in any shape to attack in 1940 (and neither would Britain.) I still don't think Poland could really threaten Germany that same year. If Italy can be swung to the Allies, then perhaps the war is over by 1941 with an Allied victory. If not, it depends whether Germany can really knock out France in 1940 or if Colonial troops, new French conscripts, and British equipment can make it work in holding out.
I am personally not sold that the Germans are strong enough to actually get through Belgium and the French Army at this point in 1939. I leave that for others to argue.
Hard to say as paths French in such a scenario would be more mentally prepared for going to war if they put troops in Poland as a tripwire.
If they're fighting a two front war in 1939 (when they're also quite unprepared) the Germans are going to lose. For one thing, they've only got a few months left in the campaign season, so either they attack France and get bogged down or do what they did to Poland in 1939. I don't see why they wouldn't be doing that ITTL.
LordKalvert
Banned
Its an interesting question. Hitler decided to move against Poland only after having secured the Soviets. He really didn't think that the Allies would fight. Now such a tripwire might really convey their intentions and even that the Allies would be forced to fight if their men were killed
Couple this move with the sending of strong British forces to France and Hitler may well have been hesitant.
Stalin, on the other hand, had little to fear from a British and French declaration of war- especially if they were fighting Germany as well. Britain and France had no real means of striking at the Soviets
Couple this move with the sending of strong British forces to France and Hitler may well have been hesitant.
Stalin, on the other hand, had little to fear from a British and French declaration of war- especially if they were fighting Germany as well. Britain and France had no real means of striking at the Soviets
Stalin didn't want to end up fighting the British and French though, he was quite paranoid of a grand anti-Communist alliance forming against him. His actions have always been cautious, if the British and France are clearly making a stand over Poland during the summer, he may not judge the situation appropriate.
Deleted member 9338
If the British and French send a total of 10,000 troops I see it having little influence in a battle over Poland, if it actually starts.
Reasons why German may back down:
Reasons why German may back down:
- Soviet Union has second thoughts over a dismemberment treaty dealing with Poland
- Romania enters into the alliance and sends troops to what become the Romanian Bridgehead (see about)
- Italy sees little reason to support Germany and joins the alliance with the
- understanding they keep Ethiopia.
- German Generals get cold feet over Hitler and there is little support for the war.
What Stalin does is a really good question. The above is plausible, but as someone else said he may decide that with Britain and France already in an open war on the western front (if Britain and France aren't planning on this the deployment of their forces to Poland is a suicide mission). The question is how Britain and France react in this case.
Attacking at once would not necessarily be smart at all. Stalin is unpredictable, and there is no guarantee that if he subsequently demands half the country Poland's allies won't tell it to be reasonable, cede half its territory to the Soviets and be grateful for their help. But if things progress to the point where British and French forced are deployed in Poland, it's probably too late to create any serious delay.
Good points mostly. Not sure what Italy would do in this scenario. Britain and France didn't seem too interested in acknowledging Italy's conquests, IIRC. Italy might just decide to stay neutral and hope the war makes everybody to busy for them to interfere in making a fait accompli in Africa.
I think your first two points are more crucial, combined with the OP that Britain and France are committed to Poland's defense. This means that there is no pressure on Poland to not mobilize, significant butterflies there like others mentioned. Combined with Romania entering the war, a PoD I've always thought interesting, AFAIK, they offered OTL. Others have mentioned Stalin's inherent caution, so adding the rest up he might decide to bide his time, probably go after Finland anyway while the capitalists wear themselves out in his POV.
One other thought occured to me. From what I've read Poland's defense strategy was influenced by the need to protect their border and the disputed regions with Germany as 1) That is where the majority of their industry was and 2) They were afraid that Germany would only take Gdansk/the Corridor in a repeat of Czechoslovakia.
If this 10,000 strong force is there in the summer and after, would Poland change their defense strategy due to feeling that they wouldn't have to stand alone or would it maybe be pointed out by the British or French due to the joint training? If the bulk of the Polish forces aren't on the border that would butterfly the encirclements that the Germans acheived OTL.
I'm not 100% on that last part, so if anyone here has more info as to other possible Polish defensive plans I'd appreciate it. Because given the OP and the butterflies from that commitment I could see the Germans possibly stopped before the Bridgehead.
LordKalvert
Banned
Of course not. But a Anglo-French German war is what he wanted- preferably long and bloody
What I'm wondering though is Stalin really had little to fear from an Anglo-French attack in that they would have a hard time getting to him. He might still have been willing to push for an aggressive solution to Poland in conjunction with Hitler
Hitler, on the other hand, may well have backed off. He was totally shocked when the Anglo-French declarations of war came. This scenario makes it likely he would expect such declarations
Yeah. He would say the foreign troops would be withdrawn, or would only defend their own position so that the German troops could just isolate them and later allow their evacuation, or something like that.
I also disagree that Hitler in 1939 would not follow his own wishful thinking.
As to Stalin's decisions, we're talking about two brigades here, a French one and a British one. They won't occupy a lot of territory.
So Stalin will do what he did in OTL - wait and see. If the Allies don't do more on the French-German front and these two small units just start moving out towards Romania (which would be the sensible thing to do), then Stalin will probably go along the lines of OTL; just, maybe, a week later, and taking precautions to avoid a confrontation with the Westerners.
If, regardless of the above, there is a firefight between Soviet troops and the Westerners, it's not a given the Westerners will decide it's wise to declare war on the Soviet Union for that. Yes, I know, they later toyed with the notion to bomb Baku - as a one-off stunt, and I doubt they would declare war for doing that.
This time in history is rife with firefights, full-fledged battles and even invasions that did not bring about a full state of war between the combatants. Soviets vs. Japanese, British vs. French, British vs. Finns, Germans vs. Danes... and even in the case at hand, you have Soviets vs. Poles. With all that Polish troops did occasionally fight the Soviets and that the Soviet invaded and annexed part of Poland, Poland did not declare war on the SU.
Sometimes, both parties simply found it more expedient not to escalate the confrontation.
So Stalin will do what he did in OTL - wait and see. If the Allies don't do more on the French-German front and these two small units just start moving out towards Romania (which would be the sensible thing to do), then Stalin will probably go along the lines of OTL; just, maybe, a week later, and taking precautions to avoid a confrontation with the Westerners.
If, regardless of the above, there is a firefight between Soviet troops and the Westerners, it's not a given the Westerners will decide it's wise to declare war on the Soviet Union for that. Yes, I know, they later toyed with the notion to bomb Baku - as a one-off stunt, and I doubt they would declare war for doing that.
This time in history is rife with firefights, full-fledged battles and even invasions that did not bring about a full state of war between the combatants. Soviets vs. Japanese, British vs. French, British vs. Finns, Germans vs. Danes... and even in the case at hand, you have Soviets vs. Poles. With all that Polish troops did occasionally fight the Soviets and that the Soviet invaded and annexed part of Poland, Poland did not declare war on the SU.
Sometimes, both parties simply found it more expedient not to escalate the confrontation.