WI Britain surrenders in 1940

Best POD is for Churchill to somehow mess up in those crucial days in early May 1940, and Halifax becomes PM instead.
Halifax then might be able to convince the war cabinet to agree to an armistice in late May/June 1940.

Without British support its unlikely the 1941 Yugoslav coup would've happened, that means no German invasion of Yugoslavia and that Barbarossa would begin in May not June 1941.

After that its all open to interpretation.

Wouldn't Stalin be ape on prepping for war with the Nazi Germany? Well, he just wanted the Axis and the Entente to bleed each other out while he preps for war sometime in 1942-44. Wouldn't Stalin crash-course the preparation and heed warnings of an impending invasion, and get his troops and equipment from the Soviet-German and Soviet-Romanian border?
 
It would need to be some sort of peace settlement. I don't see why the UK would surrender unless German troops were storming Buckingham Palace. I don't see the UK accepting a peace treaty that reduces their military. The best Hitler could probably get would be the UK agreeing that Germany can run continental Europe

The UK would then put all their efforts into modernizing and expanding their military. Unless Hitler does something stupid I'm not sure how they get back in the war though. Most likely Hitler would then turn his attention to the USSR and figure he doesn't have to worry about the US and UK for the time being. If Hitler and Stalin are fighting each other sitting on the sidelines and seeing what happens would be the more popular strategy. Maybe after they beat each other up badly the UK government could push that now is the time to liberate Europe.

The UK would probably come out of WWII in a stronger position in this scenario than in real life.
 
They would move the capital to the Cayman islands and keep fighting even if the Germans had been able to conquer the home islands, Britain isn't going to soldier on, no matter.

That'd require a degree of zealousness exceeding even Imperial Japan. If German troops are overrunning the Home Islands there will absolutely be a surrender.
 
Combine a disaster at Dunkirk, the loss of more of the RAF in France and a more rational German plan for the BoB, and finally a German offer that basically offers the UK a status quo peace with no territorial losses with the possible exception of regaining German colonies in Africa, and you may see even Churchill accepting this. Yes, it may be "temporary" but it will take some time before Britain will be in a position to challenge Germany directly on the continent and if Japan attacks in the Pacific as per otl efforts will be directed there.

The US is not going to allow any German access to French and Dutch possessions in the western hemisphere, period, not access to Greenland. The sending of a very few German "armistice control" officers to these places is remotely possible, but much more likely the US sends forces to occupy them pending the restoration of "legitimate" French and Dutch governments, leaving the local civil authorities pretty much in charge. The Germans may not be happy about this but they can't do anything.

With Britain and Germany not at war, I can't see any LL going to Russia when Barbarossa happens, and even if the UK wants to help once the Pacific War kicks off they will not have a lot to spare as an armistice with Germany in fall 1940 means no LL for Britain (or at least much less) until the US/UK are allies against Japan. This means less to spare for Russia under any circumstance, and I can't see a UK which concluded an armistice with Germany risking much to help a USSR which by carving up Poland with Germany set in motion WWII.
 
I'm largely basing the opinion that surrender could have happened off Bungay (Most Dangerous Enemy). He holds that the most likely time for a divergence leading to surrender would be 24-28 May.


It could best be summed up as:

At the time, the country was in shock, and was not committed irretreivably to either continued war or negotiated peace. If a PM started to follow either path, they would not get resistance sufficient to stop them.

I agree in principle, but I don't know who that leader might be. Halifax is awkward; who else is there?

It also requires a "just-right" offer from Hitler. Otherwise there might just be a lot of dithering about terms before the whole thing collapses.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I agree in principle, but I don't know who that leader might be. Halifax is awkward; who else is there?

It also requires a "just-right" offer from Hitler. Otherwise there might just be a lot of dithering about terms before the whole thing collapses.
Halifax is the easy one. But there are other possibilities - not prominent ones in our time line, simply because Churchill soaked up almost all the oxygen, but with Churchill removed somehow then someone could arise. (Probably quite fast.)

I have to make it clear that I don't think that it's necessarily a likely path - but I also don't think it's impossible. We throw that term around too often in AH when what we mean is "unlikely" - or, sometimes, "I don't want to think about it".

Very few things are impossible. A lot of things are improbable, but you're still "allowed" them in your AH so long as you either make it clear it was lucky or make it the PoD - or both.
And have people react properly.

If Britain surrenders, it's not going to be abject - it's going to be something like "France loses X, Belgium loses Y, no free Poland, Britain gives back German colonies and gives Somalia to Italy". A negotiated peace.
Restrictions on the Royal Navy are right out. Restrictions on the British Army might be able to squeeze in, especially if it's coupled with a hard limit on the Kriegsmarine (since that is basically mutually enforced inability for each nation to threaten one another).
That might actually be quite a relief for the British in the summer of 1940, with Sealion's possibility scaring the public.
After all, perceptions drive surrenders.


But what might be a really fun TL is if the negotiations start... and drag on... and drag on... until when they collapse Britain has Spitfires coming out of her ears and the army's back together.

(Bit outside the thread scope, but it's a neat idea. Diplomacy as delaying tactic has a long history.)
 
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