In all seriousness,there's plenty of so called useless territory in the British Empire.Selling such a large piece of territory to an Oriental country will probably be hard to justify in face of the British public,since the British have always justified their conquests as bringing the light of civilization to the unclothed and uncleaned.The British were always racist as fuck to the Japanese even after the Russo-Japanese War and their alliance.I also don't think the Japanese will have any problems with the British owning Formosa either.The Japanese needed their alliance with Britain more than Britain needed an alliance with them.Without their alliance with Britain,they'd be fighting both France and Russia in a potential Russo-Japanese War assuming that isn't butterflied.
WI Britain seized Taiwan in Opium War I or II?
- Thread starter raharris1973
- Start date
I don't think the Manchus would be overthrown if they just bowed to British pressure around the same circumstances as OTL,but if the British gets more forceful and does more damage than OTL,it's hard to tell.
I do wonder, would this instead increase Qing efforts in modernization? Or would it lead to the Qing going full isolationist? Taiwan's position as a springboard to Southern China could very well freak the Qing out.
The Qing did give a significant effort at modernization.Their records have shown that even in face of threats,their efforts aren't successful.The 'greater' the effort at modernization,the greater the chance of potentially breaking the Qing Empire.The Hundred Days reform showed this.If the modernization efforts are too strong and radical,you might just face a full scale conservative revolt.
My view:
China could not physically resist a British demand for and occupation of Taiwan, at least in the 2nd Opium War, which saw them march to Beijing and burn down the palace. They could well succeed in demanding Taiwan in the 1st opium war too. It's an island. Britain is good at conquering those, and at making sure enemy armies don't show up on them.
Once a British possession, Britain wouldn't sell it.
London could only use Taiwan as a *supplement* for Hong Kong and mainland treaty ports, not a substitute for them.
Uses for Britain of Taiwan: A naval, military and trade waypoint in the Far East. A base that can be food self-sufficient. From northern Taiwan it is a shorter hop to further up the Chinese coast, Korea, the Ryukyus and Japan.
Taiwan could be a multicultural environment, with South Asian coolies working there as well as Chinese and expat Brits. The size of the Indian population will depend on if the availability of India labor is higher and its price is lower than Chinese labor, at least to the point that it compensates for additional travel costs.
There could be a substantial body of ethnic Chinese troops recruited in Taiwan, who, like the Indians, could take part in imperial policing missions.
A British Taiwan is a Taiwan that is not available for the Japanese later. The effects could go further than that however. With a more robust and forwardly placed base in the Far East, Britain can exert more power there and possibly forestall power political rivalries between Japan, Korea and China. If Britain used its extra power projection to stop anhything like the Sino-Japanese war before it starts, or to head off annexation of Korea, the three countries may be less focused on each other as the enemy in the 20th century and get along. They could all see Britain as the big regional bully and agree on that.
That might make their geopolitical attitudes more like those of people in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia, who looking back would see Britain as the main villain. While there's no reason it would be more cohesive, there could be more genuine pan-Asianism in the region as one consequence of this.
China could not physically resist a British demand for and occupation of Taiwan, at least in the 2nd Opium War, which saw them march to Beijing and burn down the palace. They could well succeed in demanding Taiwan in the 1st opium war too. It's an island. Britain is good at conquering those, and at making sure enemy armies don't show up on them.
Once a British possession, Britain wouldn't sell it.
London could only use Taiwan as a *supplement* for Hong Kong and mainland treaty ports, not a substitute for them.
Uses for Britain of Taiwan: A naval, military and trade waypoint in the Far East. A base that can be food self-sufficient. From northern Taiwan it is a shorter hop to further up the Chinese coast, Korea, the Ryukyus and Japan.
Taiwan could be a multicultural environment, with South Asian coolies working there as well as Chinese and expat Brits. The size of the Indian population will depend on if the availability of India labor is higher and its price is lower than Chinese labor, at least to the point that it compensates for additional travel costs.
There could be a substantial body of ethnic Chinese troops recruited in Taiwan, who, like the Indians, could take part in imperial policing missions.
A British Taiwan is a Taiwan that is not available for the Japanese later. The effects could go further than that however. With a more robust and forwardly placed base in the Far East, Britain can exert more power there and possibly forestall power political rivalries between Japan, Korea and China. If Britain used its extra power projection to stop anhything like the Sino-Japanese war before it starts, or to head off annexation of Korea, the three countries may be less focused on each other as the enemy in the 20th century and get along. They could all see Britain as the big regional bully and agree on that.
That might make their geopolitical attitudes more like those of people in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia, who looking back would see Britain as the main villain. While there's no reason it would be more cohesive, there could be more genuine pan-Asianism in the region as one consequence of this.
That would actually be interesting, with one major thing to add. I'd imagine that it'd be kinda like Singapore, with the British importing some Indian coolies, though they also import Chinese laborers who are closer. Just like in Singapore, because the Chinese laborers start out free, they're at an economical advantage compared to the Indian coolies. That's essentially why Chinese dominate Singaporeon economics, though that's still changing.
But yeah, I'm really interested in seeing the effects on Japan, Korea, and China. Japan still sees Korea as a dagger pointed at the heart of Japan, but Korea, at this point in time, isn't really a threat to anyone. On the other hand, Britain has a naval base that could easily dominate Japan, Korea, and southern China, which is arguably more dangerous to all three countries than each other.
Japan isn't stupid enough to try to fight the British off, so they might still take Korea as IOTL (though I can't really see them getting much else, given that the Europeans will want to take more concessions from China). But after that, China and Japan might actually become really friendly as they find that their biggest mutual threats are the same - the British and the Russians. Japan suddenly has a vested interest in propping the Qing up against the Russians and British.