WI Britain pulls a 'Copenhagen' and pre-emptively attacks the Imperial German Navy?

I was personally thinking of a 1908 POD when I started the thread simply because the Entente was a thing, the HSF was more developed by then, dreadnaughts had come into the game etc. However, having heard what other people have had to say on the matter on the thread I have reconsidered and now find a 1904 POD quite a bit more interesting, as it creates something seemingly closer to the Russo-Japanese War than WW1. As such, if anyone is stuck for a more precise POD I'll go with 04.
Ok then! So the Russo-Japanese war has or has not started yet, Is this before or after the Entente? And if after, did the UK give France a heads up on their intentions? Do the French applaud the UK actions? If they do so publicly, this leads to war with Germany, sooner than OTL I would think. Will Germany DoW the UK immediately, or at some future time {There will be war, no doubt about it at all, but the time and place will be Germany's choice}, depending on if they need time to build up their forces to crush any UK allies on the ground?
 
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So the Russo-Japanese war has or has not started yet, Is this before or after the Entente?
After the Entente, after the DOW for the Russo-Japanese War. They were both early in the year anyway, and I expect an embattled and distracted Russian Navy could give Britain quite a boost in confidence.
did the UK give France a heads up on their intentions?
I don't see why not. Britain would be very much shooting themselves in the foot if they chose to take on Germany without the support of their own only continental ally.
 
Ok, so let's see if I have the times figured out a tiny bit better....

This "Copenhagening" takes place sometime in 1904, and some interesting things are also going on in history around the same time.

Anglo-Japanese Alliance
Russo-Japanese War
Entente Cordiale

So, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was a British attempt aimed at Russia, to have Japan curtail Russian ambitions in asia, first signed on Jan 30th, 1902. This does not make the Czar well disposed towards merry old England.

Russo-Japanese War, which starts on 9 Feb, 1904. Which just happens to begin with a Japanese surprise attack on the Russian Pacific fleet, based at port Arthur.

The Entente Cordiale, signed in April, 1904...Just 2 months after the Czar's fleet is hard hit...

And then, the RN decides on a surprise attack upon the German navy.

Yep, the UK/France can definitely count on the Czar's support and friendship in this ATL.

So, this gives us quite a different picture of the situation in this alternate timeline from our own, and WWI is not going to start 10 years later, but likely the day the UK decides to make their own surprise attack. Germany sees the Russians attacked by a British ally (Japan), who happened to be allied to Britain's newest friend (France), and then sees her own fleet attacked by the British. Hmmmm. Russia sees Germany, ruled by the Czar's cousin, Willy, getting the same treatment as he himself has just received, and so NO, there will be no fighting between Russia and Germany. The only two significant remaining questions I see are dealing with France and the United States.

France, is she part of the happy "Imperialist World War" that the UK is behind? France, and not Britain, shares a land boarder with Germany, did the UK tell France about the planned attack, so the french could mobilize their army (goodbye element of surprise), or did the UK leave their ally hanging out in the wind?

The United States, up to now enjoying her isolationist existence apart from the Spanish-American War now sees a very disturbing pattern developing, what with not one, but two wars of aggression started off by surprise attacks upon the naval forces of Russia and Germany, and both these attacks by island nations that are dependant upon imported goods not just to feed their industry, but their populations as well. Global crushing of potential naval rivals? The USA and Japan are definitely already looking at each other as rivals for trade in Asia (The Germans, with a loss of some of their fleet, and their involvement in a major land war in Europe unless the French drop the alliance with the UK like the proverbial hot potato, not so much anymore), and by the British acting in such a fashion, who knows what is to come next?

So, some interesting variations for us to play with here. Are the attacks confined to just the two outlined, or are/is the strategy more global, IE, are the French in on it and readying themselves for war with Germany? Is the USA left out of the planning, and just assumed to be up for going along with the new world order? Or are there other plans, to account for the USA's own fleet?

Now where do we go from here...?
 
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After the Entente, after the DOW for the Russo-Japanese War. They were both early in the year anyway, and I expect an embattled and distracted Russian Navy could give Britain quite a boost in confidence.

I don't see why not. Britain would be very much shooting themselves in the foot if they chose to take on Germany without the support of their own only continental ally.
Excellent! So now we come to Canada. Are the UK leaders willing to take the risk of possible US intervention against them, because the USA military forces are not up to European standards, or do they need to pre-emptively strike the USA as well?
 
In other words, do we see the first "Imperialist World War" starting on two continents, or three?
 
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I don't see why not. Britain would be very much shooting themselves in the foot if they chose to take on Germany without the support of their own only continental ally.

Well you're already attacking one potential continental rival without a DoW, in effect reducing any captured RN personnel in this harebrained stunt to the level of pirates, why not try for crippling TWO continental rivals, and see if you can get most of a generation of France killed off while you provide "Naval Support"
 
Ok, so let's see if I have the times figured out a tiny bit better....

This "Copenhagening" takes place sometime in 1904, and some interesting things are also going on in history around the same time.

Anglo-Japanese Alliance
Russo-Japanese War
Entente Cordiale

So, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was a British attempt aimed at Russia, to have Japan curtail Russian ambitions in asia, first signed on Jan 30th, 1902. This does not make the Czar well disposed towards merry old England.

Russo-Japanese War, which starts on 9 Feb, 1904. Which just happens to begin with a Japanese surprise attack on the Russian Pacific fleet, based at port Arthur.

The Entente Cordiale, signed in April, 1904...Just 2 months after the Czar's fleet is hard hit...

And then, the RN decides on a surprise attack upon the German navy.

Yep, the UK/France can definitely count on the Czar's support and friendship in this ATL.

So, this gives us quite a different picture of the situation in this alternate timeline from our own, and WWI is not going to start 10 years later, but likely the day the UK decides to make their own surprise attack. Germany sees the Russians attacked by a British ally (Japan), who happened to be allied to Britain's newest friend (France), and then sees her own fleet attacked by the British. Hmmmm. Russia sees Germany, ruled by the Czar's cousin, Willy, getting the same treatment as he himself has just received, and so NO, there will be no fighting between Russia and Germany. The only two significant remaining questions I see are dealing with France and the United States.

France, is she part of the happy "Imperialist World War" that the UK is behind? France, and not Britain, shares a land boarder with Germany, did the UK tell France about the planned attack, so the french could mobilize their army (goodbye element of surprise), or did the UK leave their ally hanging out in the wind?

The United States, up to now enjoying her isolationist existence apart from the Spanish-American War now sees a very disturbing pattern developing, what with not one, but two wars of aggression started off by surprise attacks upon the naval forces of Russia and Germany, and both these attacks by island nations that are dependant upon imported goods not just to feed their industry, but their populations as well. Global crushing of potential naval rivals? The USA and Japan are definitely already looking at each other as rivals for trade in Asia (The Germans, with a loss of some of their fleet, and their involvement in a major land war in Europe unless the French drop the alliance with the UK like the proverbial hot potato, not so much anymore), and by the British acting in such a fashion, who knows what is to come next?

So, some interesting variations for us to play with here. Are the attacks confined to just the two outlined, or are/is the strategy more global, IE, are the French in on it and readying themselves for war with Germany? Is the USA left out of the planning, and just assumed to be up for going along with the new world order? Or are there other plans, to account for the USA's own fleet?

Now where so we go from here...?

A rather interesting turn of events and departures. I am uncertain if the German threat is sufficient to provoke such an attack in 1904, I would think it might occur after the First Moroccan Crisis, but if it is 1904 then I suspect the Entente is not yet firm enough to guarantee France goes to war with Germany and the linkages do not exist for this to be a coordinated plan, the French will be simply along for the ride. I would agree that this should rupture the Franco-Russian alliance if France stands with the UK or quashes the Entente as the French feel tossed to the wolf given that Russia is not poised to draw away any German forces in the event of war. Here I would accept both the USA and Russia realigning with Germany who while humiliated and knocked out as the arguable second ranked naval power, is still the strongest continental power. Without a navy the German threat to the USA evaporates. Both the USA and Russia have ambitions and are similarly situated, Russia seeing itself being picked off by Britain in a proxy fight and the USA facing a British strike if she asserts herself, the British look bent on hegemony, so it might not get you an alliance, but the USA and Russia are not going to be Germany's enemy when the UK asks.
 
A rather interesting turn of events and departures. I am uncertain if the German threat is sufficient to provoke such an attack in 1904, I would think it might occur after the First Moroccan Crisis, but if it is 1904 then I suspect the Entente is not yet firm enough to guarantee France goes to war with Germany and the linkages do not exist for this to be a coordinated plan, the French will be simply along for the ride. I would agree that this should rupture the Franco-Russian alliance if France stands with the UK or quashes the Entente as the French feel tossed to the wolf given that Russia is not poised to draw away any German forces in the event of war. Here I would accept both the USA and Russia realigning with Germany who while humiliated and knocked out as the arguable second ranked naval power, is still the strongest continental power. Without a navy the German threat to the USA evaporates. Both the USA and Russia have ambitions and are similarly situated, Russia seeing itself being picked off by Britain in a proxy fight and the USA facing a British strike if she asserts herself, the British look bent on hegemony, so it might not get you an alliance, but the USA and Russia are not going to be Germany's enemy when the UK asks.
Well said! Keep in mind that what I outlined is from OTL, and I make assumptions about France/UK, and had to ask the questions about Canada/USA.
 
Well said! Keep in mind that what I outlined is from OTL, and I make assumptions about France/UK, and had to ask the questions about Canada/USA.

This would likely cement the traditional antipathy towards the British running in American sentiment as well as fuel the paranoia that underpinned War Plan Red. Here it would be more than mere contingency, I think the USA takes an Anglo-American war seriously and Canada is the focus of our concerns. Here the US Army gets a much more ardent boost, the Navy can draw upon support to build a genuine fleet, etc. If we have TR in office I think he goes rather ape nuts. The USA will demand strength to defend itself and pursue the Monroe Doctrine actively versus the Europeans, here the British in the Americas. Given the trade routes from the planned Panama Canal will pass through British possessions, the Caribbean will be a hot spot for perceived moves to stage war upon America. This might birth the aspirant super power America.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
That was my though, as well, but I expressed it badly. I would see the USA applying pressure to the UK to pay reparations, and accept naval treaties that would forever eliminate the thought of the preemptive strike being viable in the future. Thing is, if the UK did do something like this, then I don't see them being 'reasonable' anytime soon.

One of the other possibilities not yet covered is, are the French on board with this, or just along for the ride? What about a joint strike by the RN and the MN?

I would go then you get a French/Anglo/Japanese Alliance. The Three Emperor league reforms. Italy will be neutral or pro-Germany. France get curb stomped by the Heer plus an A-H army or two. Ottomans loyalty can be bought. And it is pre-Balkan wars, so it might be a good time for Russia and/or A-H and/or Italy to try to grab some part of the Ottoman empire.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Just discovered this TL...

... Fisher wanted to 'Copenhagen' the HSF in the 1890s and was refused due to poor form and minefields. There were literally MILLIONS of German mines in the Heligoland Bight and off the Baltic Coast. Many of them are still there.

To take the Grand Fleet into the Heligoland Bight invites mines, but also torpedo attack by destroyers, cruisers, Schnellboote and eventually the Unterseeboote. Churchill could be an ass, but not even Fisher was nuts enough to actually attack Wilhelmshafen and lose the Grand Fleet. That is why both sides tried to draw the other out of harbour to somewhere like the Dogger Bank or Jutland. Only shallow-draught boats like the Coastal Motor Boats (CMB) could cross the minefields unmolested. I never used Heligoland in my book for more than CMB and folboat raids into the Friesland area, for the Jade was well mined and the few shipping channels under the guns of the German coastal fortifications.

So I'm sorry, CommanderVonBruning, but the OP is a non-starter on many levels. You might want to consider a Wattenzee Kanal through the tidal mudbanks from Emden to Cuxhaven, though - I am amazed that this was never dredged for commerce and naval purposes.

I enjoyed the book and the film of 'The Riddle of The Sands', though - the book was/is a favourite of my grandfather, my father and myself. Jurgen Andersen was superb as the Commander - easily the equal of Simon MacCorkindale in his role as Arthur Davies. I salute you, sir.

My reading has the HSF defensive mine fields as poorly organized in July 1914.
 
IF they attack out of the blue, they will be regarded as the main war mongers and won't get much support.
They'll have french support at the very least. War mongering maniacs they were at that time.
Attacking Wilhelmshaven i could see happening but having a British Fleet sail undetected true the Kattegat to attack Kiel i do not see happening.
Agreed. They would have to force their way through, which would potentially involve a third copenhagening of Copenhagen - or crushing the Royal Danish Navy at sea.
 
I dont see much of an immediate international reaction. Sure there is anger and mistrust to the british on all sides but nobody - including the USA - will do much. Germany will be very angry but cant do anything while Brittain can go picking up german colonies if he likes. In the end this will be a short war and huge british victory with low immediate costs (the bad blood created with Germany for a long time is another matter).

How would Germany react? Its army is untached and its nacy destroyed. Do they give up on the navy for a while and pour the now available money in the army or try very hard to rebuild as soon as possible? How will this effect WWI? The german-british relation will be worse than OTL however Brittain wont have much reason to fight as Germany is no longer a threat. Or could Germany be so angered by this that they try for a continental bloc by trying to come to terms with France - maybe giving back Metz?
 
One thing that strikes me, is that attacking a country wihtout a formal declaration of war was seen a a very big no.no in those times and could have potentialy very serious diplomatic and economoc consequences.

There will be alot of Anti-british propaganda deploring "Treacherous Albion" in the German press, but more seriously, other countries and economic players could come to see the British as someone whose words cannot be trusted.
 
One thing that strikes me, is that attacking a country wihtout a formal declaration of war was seen a a very big no.no in those times and could have potentialy very serious diplomatic and economoc consequences.

There will be alot of Anti-british propaganda deploring "Treacherous Albion" in the German press, but more seriously, other countries and economic players could come to see the British as someone whose words cannot be trusted.

What? Noooooooo, nonsense. Everyone will happily continue being Englands inferiors and not at all be terrified that they'll be next and start embarking on massive military buildups of their own for the strike they "Know" is coming! (Enjoy that naval arms race and military alliances directed against England, London).

Or, you know. Simply going "Fuck it", and starting to funnel arms, funding, and advisors into the Raj to any and all would be rebellions...

On a more serious note, the RN itself could suffer major casualties from the strike itself if it got unlucky...
 
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