Thomas Wilkins
Banned
What if the British keeps Hong Kong and its New Territories forever instead of a 99 year lease? How will this affect relations with China in the following 20th century?
Just how does Britain keep Hong Kong "in perpetuity"? Do you think Britain has any chance in a war against China?What if the British keeps Hong Kong and its New Territories forever instead of a 99 year lease? How will this affect relations with China in the following 20th century?
What if the British keeps Hong Kong and its New Territories forever instead of a 99 year lease?
Hong Kong proper was already ceded in perpetuity. It was the New Territories that were on the 99-year lease, instead. The easiest way, therefore, to get the New Territories ceded in perpetuity would be around the same time as when Kowloon (which started out also as a leased territory) was ceded - which requires a pre-1900 POD, with the First Convention of Peking in 1860.
Claim that the PRC will not be recognized as a successor state to Qing Dynastic China, from which Hong Kong was extracted from. Brits could use this as a pretext to not hand over the New Territories.
Obviously PRC won't accept this and they will likely go for a hostile approach like a blockade or even military occupation. Even if Hong Kong is reinforced with additional military forces, PLA's sheer numbers would still overwhelm the British. The only chance the British would have is by getting UN support, and to get this they would need to conduct a referendum on whether Hong Kong joins China or remains a colony.
I believe the Hong Kongers wouldn't be too keen on joining Red China, and thus the results would work in the British favour by attracting international support (and opposition to China). From here there could be a variety of options such as UN sanctions against the PRC and/or deployment of a peacekeeper force to the border. Eventually China would be forced to back off (or else Tiananmen Square may turn out differently for them).
And as I noted it will mean about as much as Portugal's right to "perpetual occupation and government of Macao"...
Article 5 states:Can't Britain activate article 5 and call upon other NATO countries to help?