WI: Britain captures Rio de la Plata as a settler colony?

JJohnson

Banned
Let's say the 1806 Rio de la Plata is successful, and the British are able to capture a large portion of South America, say everything south of the Salado river at Buenos Aires and Pilcomayo, and west to the Pacific, since it was sparsely populated at the time, and it becomes a settler colony. What do you see this developing into? How big would it become theoretically as a fourth colony (after Canada, Australia/New Zealand, and South Africa)? What effects does it have on South America? What kind of country (ethnically, linguistically, culturally, etc.) do you see this evolving into?

I have three cases for this:

Case A: This is an additional colony, along with Canada, Australia/NZ, and South Africa for settlers.

Case B: This is a colony in place of Canada, lost in the American Revolution, but Rupert's Land and Newfoundland remain British.

Case C: This is a colony in place of Canada, and Rupert's Land is sold to the US in the late 19th/early 20th century

From just a quick run of numbers of current population:
Canada: 33.4 million
AU: 22.7 million
NZ: 4.4 million
SA: 4.2 million (European)

As a guess:

Case A: OTL it got 6.2 million European settlers already, so I'd guess roughly that plus perhaps another 5 million over 2 centuries from Britain and Ireland, with natural birth rates, would give roughly 15-18 million.

Case B: 6.2 plus perhaps 5-8 million not choosing to live in Rupert's Land due to not being very good land, hostile neighbor, etc. plus those who would've gone to Canada but didn't, maybe another 7 million? 18-21 million up to perhaps 27-29 million with birth rates perhaps?

Case C: 6.2, 8 million from Rupert's Land area, around 10-12 million additional for redirected immigration, giving around 24.2 to 26 million, maybe as high as 31 million-34 million as OTL Canada had? Would it be even higher with the higher amount of arable land and more favorable climate?
 
I think that's too much to conquer. Distances are vast, there is no infraestructure to speak about and the Spaniards will be able to muster a force to counter the British Army. I think a victory might allow them to hold to the western bank of the River Plate and, maybe, a second expedition might be able to secure current day Uruguay. That's likely to be about it.
Not much to do with the new colony at the begining anyway. Use it to trade with the rest of South American, using the vast land/river borders to smuggle goods and avoid trade restrictions and produce wool to supply British textile industry.

As this doesn't seem to butterfly away the Peninsular War, the question is how butteflies affect the Spanish American Independence wars. A big question is whether the British government allows (and support) their River Plate colony to take an offensive role in the war. If they don't (and I guess they wouldn't, as British regiments didn't intervene in the war in OTL), the royalist forces wouldn't be facing a continental sized pincer. Paraguay is likely to still declare independence and it's too isolated for royalist forces to take and Upper Peru is likely to still be a guerrilla nightmare, so maybe what's today center and north Argentina might still be out of reach of royalists. As with OTL, a lot of stuff depends on events in Spain. If an ATL version of the Spanish 1820 revolution still happens, Colombian forces might be able to end the Spanish reign over South America, maybe by the early 1830s. If it doesn't, it might be possible for indepentist movements in South America to fail. Not sure how that's affecting Mexico and Central America's revolutions. Even if the absolutists manage to 'win', Spain would be facing more civil wars in the future, as in OTL, which will replicate in South America, being either second (or third if we count Tupac Amaruc's rebellion) independence wars or continental sized civil wars, depending in the outcome.

Down the road, it means the smaller British colony is likely to have independentist ideas of their own, which are likely to be put down (smaller area, the British naval superiority is unlikely to be contested). Depending on how long that war lasts, it might develop more prosperous than the Spanish colonies, due more time at peace, and could begin to attract immigrants earlier. Decades later, that prosperity is likely to be attributted to the British Ubermensch overlords rather than the more complex military, political and economical causes.

It would develop as an agrarian colony, maybe not unlike New Zeland, and should get dominion status along with Canada, Australia and New Zeland. I'd guess it would end up as a culturally diverse country, specially by late 19th century standards: an indian and catholic background, swamped by European immigration from the Mediterranean and maybe more from the UK and the German states, which adds protestantism, judaism and islam to the mix. Two languages, Spanish (traditionally spoken) and English (used for international trade and government). Likely Europhile, not unlike OTL. I don't know how the educational system tried to forge (or not) a nation state identity in the British dominions given that, by that time, they weren't independent nation states. If the governments try to homogenize the culture, they are likely to try to bury some of these characteristics.
The other question is how wars and land politics affect the gaucho population. If it's left to thrive, it would form the basis of a rural middle class, which would stimulate the economy eventually.
 
Weren't the British forced out by the Spanish colonists there themselves, and that played a large role in the beginning days of the Argentine War of Independence? Even if the Brits manage to do better at putting down/co-opting the Argentinians, there's likely going to be continual resentment there. Even if the Brits only hold Buenos Aires and Montevideo that's still going to be seen as an occupying force, and might, like in South Africa, led to an exodus of Argentinians further in land and up the Plate river. Argentinian Boers?
 
I don't think this is a viable colony without capturing Rio and Montevideo. Otherwise the Spanish will be able to push them out.
 

JJohnson

Banned
Perhaps. So, the British capture and hold Buenos Aires and Montevideo. They perhaps gain everything south of the Salado river and everything encompassed by the Uruguay river in treaty with Spain. The area floods with British settlers. What would you imagine this country looking like by 2000?
 
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