alternatehistory.com

During the US Civil War, Britain and France both loved the thought of the breakup of the United States, according to historian Kenneth C. Davis. Lord Palmerston, the Prime Minister, saw it in British interests for the United States to break up, and was sympathetic to the Confederates. British merchants also knew that the blockade would close lucrative Southern ports to trade. The US blockade at first could be argued to be in violation of international law, since it at first was largely a paper blockade, yet the Union still stopped and searched merchant ships at sea. Growing Union naval power eventually made it a real blockade, though.

I know that the British saw the loss of the lucrative Union wartime market as far more troublesome than the loss of southern cotton exports, but WI the British and maybe also the French government, thinking of their interests, decided that the potential breakup of the United States was worth it?

Once the British and maybe the French decide its worth it, they will officially proclaim that as the blockade is illegal, it is also illegal to stop and search their merchant ships. It'll be just like Suez and Libya, where foreign powers intervene officially to enforce international law or human rights, and don't proclaim their greater interests (nobody ever intervenes for human rights or international law, countries act only in their own interests).

The Royal Navy and possibly the French Navy are then dispatched to force an end to the blockade. With the blockade shattered, the Confederates can freely export cotton for hard currency (if they're smart, they'll lift their so-called cotton embargo they imposed to pressure the Europeans to recognize them, or the British and French will simply recognize them when they intervene). Using their hard currency, the Confederates can now buy weapons and supplies at a high rate and freely import them. Daily life in the Confederacy will also be normal, due to the fact that trade is now free.

Such intervention will have to take place by early or mid 1863 at the very maximum, because Union naval power was growing, and not only was it switching from a largely paper blockade to an actual one, it would be much harder to defeat the Americans at sea.

So what happens? Keep in mind it was blockade runners that allowed the Confederacy to survive as long as it did. There was no way the Confederates could have lasted nearly as long as they did without these shipments of weapons, munitions, essential supplies such as blankets and medicine, as well as civilian goods for the population. Or, would the overwhelming industrial strength and far larger population of the north still be too much for the Confederates? There are only two scenarios in this case: either they win the war, or they last longer, but they eventually get overrun by the sheer weight of northern power.
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