WI:Britain breaks the Union blockade

During the US Civil War, Britain and France both loved the thought of the breakup of the United States, according to historian Kenneth C. Davis. Lord Palmerston, the Prime Minister, saw it in British interests for the United States to break up, and was sympathetic to the Confederates. British merchants also knew that the blockade would close lucrative Southern ports to trade. The US blockade at first could be argued to be in violation of international law, since it at first was largely a paper blockade, yet the Union still stopped and searched merchant ships at sea. Growing Union naval power eventually made it a real blockade, though.

I know that the British saw the loss of the lucrative Union wartime market as far more troublesome than the loss of southern cotton exports, but WI the British and maybe also the French government, thinking of their interests, decided that the potential breakup of the United States was worth it?

Once the British and maybe the French decide its worth it, they will officially proclaim that as the blockade is illegal, it is also illegal to stop and search their merchant ships. It'll be just like Suez and Libya, where foreign powers intervene officially to enforce international law or human rights, and don't proclaim their greater interests (nobody ever intervenes for human rights or international law, countries act only in their own interests).

The Royal Navy and possibly the French Navy are then dispatched to force an end to the blockade. With the blockade shattered, the Confederates can freely export cotton for hard currency (if they're smart, they'll lift their so-called cotton embargo they imposed to pressure the Europeans to recognize them, or the British and French will simply recognize them when they intervene). Using their hard currency, the Confederates can now buy weapons and supplies at a high rate and freely import them. Daily life in the Confederacy will also be normal, due to the fact that trade is now free.

Such intervention will have to take place by early or mid 1863 at the very maximum, because Union naval power was growing, and not only was it switching from a largely paper blockade to an actual one, it would be much harder to defeat the Americans at sea.

So what happens? Keep in mind it was blockade runners that allowed the Confederacy to survive as long as it did. There was no way the Confederates could have lasted nearly as long as they did without these shipments of weapons, munitions, essential supplies such as blankets and medicine, as well as civilian goods for the population. Or, would the overwhelming industrial strength and far larger population of the north still be too much for the Confederates? There are only two scenarios in this case: either they win the war, or they last longer, but they eventually get overrun by the sheer weight of northern power.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
There were many reasons that the British did not recognize the Confederacy and attempt to raise the blockade. Firstly, this would obviously result in war with the United States, which would have brought an invasion of Canada and the unleashing of Northern commerce raiders against the British merchant marine. It also would have meant that the British would no longer be able to import American grain or export their manufactured goods to the United States.

But going with your POD and assuming that the British and French decide that the pluses of recognizing the Confederacy and breaking the blockade outweight the minuses, I cannot see how this can result in anything other than a Confederate victory. Inflation was the single greatest cause of the Confederacy's defeat, and while it would still be an immense problem it would not be nearly the problem it was IOTL. The free export of cotton will allow the Confederacy to bring in hard currency reserves, and the very fact that the British and French have granted them diplomatic recognition will give the Confederate currency a much stronger value. It will also allow the South to float loans with British and French bankers at better interest rates.

Militarily, every soldier the Union deploys on its northern border against Canada is one less soldier than can deploy against the Confederacy. The easier importing of weapons would help a lot, but would not be decisive; thanks to Josiah Gorgas, the Southern armies usually had plenty of rifles and artillery. More important to the war effort would be non-sexy stuff like shoes, uniforms, saddles and rail iron.
 
There were many reasons that the British did not recognize the Confederacy and attempt to raise the blockade. Firstly, this would obviously result in war with the United States, which would have brought an invasion of Canada and the unleashing of Northern commerce raiders against the British merchant marine. It also would have meant that the British would no longer be able to import American grain or export their manufactured goods to the United States.

But going with your POD and assuming that the British and French decide that the pluses of recognizing the Confederacy and breaking the blockade outweight the minuses, I cannot see how this can result in anything other than a Confederate victory. Inflation was the single greatest cause of the Confederacy's defeat, and while it would still be an immense problem it would not be nearly the problem it was IOTL. The free export of cotton will allow the Confederacy to bring in hard currency reserves, and the very fact that the British and French have granted them diplomatic recognition will give the Confederate currency a much stronger value. It will also allow the South to float loans with British and French bankers at better interest rates.

Militarily, every soldier the Union deploys on its northern border against Canada is one less soldier than can deploy against the Confederacy. The easier importing of weapons would help a lot, but would not be decisive; thanks to Josiah Gorgas, the Southern armies usually had plenty of rifles and artillery. More important to the war effort would be non-sexy stuff like shoes, uniforms, saddles and rail iron.

Conceivably, the British could announce that their goal is simply to enforce international law, and that they will limit themselves to breaking the blockade. If the British commit no ground troops, Lincoln might decide holding the Union together is more important and want to commit the full resources of the Union to winning the war, though other members of his cabinet would oppose. I would expect Seward to lead the opposition. If the US invades Canada, the best British response is a blockade along both its coastlines, which will remain in place until the US withdraws from Canada.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Conceivably, the British could announce that their goal is simply to enforce international law, and that they will limit themselves to breaking the blockade. If the British commit no ground troops, Lincoln might decide holding the Union together is more important and want to commit the full resources of the Union to winning the war, though other members of his cabinet would oppose. I would expect Seward to lead the opposition. If the US invades Canada, the best British response is a blockade along both its coastlines, which will remain in place until the US withdraws from Canada.

Seward had made it perfectly clear, through Ambassador Charles Adams, that any recognition of the Confederacy would mean an immediate state of war. If the British recognize the Confederacy and the Union respond with anything less than war, the Union will lose all international credibility.
 
Seward had made it perfectly clear, through Ambassador Charles Adams, that any recognition of the Confederacy would mean an immediate state of war. If the British recognize the Confederacy and the Union respond with anything less than war, the Union will lose all international credibility.

So the Union invades Canada, the British and maybe the French impose a blockade, and possibly send in ground troops to fight with the Confederates and advisers to professionalize the Confederate army. The Union is forced into a humiliating peace that includes total withdrawal from Canada, reparations to both the Confederates for the war and to the British and French for commerce raiding, and the return of all escaped slaves.
 
So the Union invades Canada, the British and maybe the French impose a blockade, and possibly send in ground troops to fight with the Confederates and advisers to professionalize the Confederate army. The Union is forced into a humiliating peace that includes total withdrawal from Canada, reparations to both the Confederates for the war and to the British and French for commerce raiding, and the return of all escaped slaves.

Yeah, I can REALLY see Britain an France firming a treaty with so many new slaves :rolleyes:
 
Yeah, I can REALLY see Britain an France firming a treaty with so many new slaves :rolleyes:

Technically, it's the Confederates' victory, the British and French just helped. They will be adamant about this in any treaty. Though perhaps the Confederates will be persuaded into letting the already escaped slaves go by the British and French due to something like: "We, your victorious and powerful allies, who are the only reason you won in the first place, think this might be a good idea".
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
and possibly send in ground troops to fight with the Confederates and advisers to professionalize the Confederate army.

I doubt it. What would be the point? The South had plenty of professional military officers. Neither the British nor the French had the logistical ability, or the desire, to send a large land army to fight alongside the Confederacy in Virginia or Tennessee, and the British would have been preoccupied with defending Canada in any event. The Confederates wouldn't want them there, anyway, out of fear of post-war meddling in the South's affairs. Whatever outright military help the British and French would have given would have been on the sea.
 
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