WI Britain and Russia get Bismarcked by Imperial Germany?

What if Wilhelm II's Germany played the same trick on Russia and Britain that it played on Austria and France under Bismarck? By this I mean coaxing one powerful country while invading another, then subsequently invading the remaining one.

Here's a little example I thought of:

- The 1904 Dogger Bank incident is worse than OTL and results in war between Britain and Russia. Germany grabs the opportunity and finds an excuse to fight Russia as Britain's co-belligerent. France, considering its prospects, backs out of its alliance with Russia.
- Britain urges Germany to end the war with the balance of power intact. Germany refuses, and continues to push into Russia.
- After 3-4 gruelling years Germany and Russia sign a treaty similar to Brest-Litovsk, much to Britain's distress. Russia loses even worse to Japan than in OTL. This is in the mid-to-late 1900s.
- Germany consolidates its hegemony in eastern Europe and, intending to expand into Western Europe and challenge Britain's naval dominance, prepares for a war in the west while intensifying its naval buildup. Meanwhile Britain and France formalise an alliance, hoping to counterbalance Germany.
- War comes in the 1910s or '20s. Germany has an even stronger navy, a more experienced army and can focus solely on the west.

Do you think this is plausible? I'll be audacious and say that I reckon this (or something like it later on) could have happened with enough long-term planning and compromise on the part of the Germans. Britain wasn't alarmed by Germany's naval buildup until its fourth naval bill in 1908, whereas at the time it had serious reservations about Russia's expansion into China and possible threat to India.

I'd love to hear your thoughts! :)
 
How could this happen? I don't see how France will back out of the alliance.

Alliances aren't national suicide pacts. France won't fight a war it doesn't think it can win. Russian got itself into this mess, Russian will have to get itself out.

- After 3-4 gruelling years Germany and Russia sign a treaty similar to Brest-Litovsk, much to Britain's distress. Russia loses even worse to Japan than in OTL. This is in the mid-to-late 1900s.

Russia will have collapsed into revolution before then, and Britain would be quite happy to see Germany bogged down trying to pacify the new (pupet) eastern states. With their attention focused on that they're not a threat to Britain.
 
What if Wilhelm II's Germany played the same trick on Russia and Britain that it played on Austria and France under Bismarck? By this I mean coaxing one powerful country while invading another, then subsequently invading the remaining one.

Here's a little example I thought of:

- The 1904 Dogger Bank incident is worse than OTL and results in war between Britain and Russia. Germany grabs the opportunity and finds an excuse to fight Russia as Britain's co-belligerent. France, considering its prospects, backs out of its alliance with Russia.
- Britain urges Germany to end the war with the balance of power intact. Germany refuses, and continues to push into Russia.
- After 3-4 gruelling years Germany and Russia sign a treaty similar to Brest-Litovsk, much to Britain's distress. Russia loses even worse to Japan than in OTL. This is in the mid-to-late 1900s.
- Germany consolidates its hegemony in eastern Europe and, intending to expand into Western Europe and challenge Britain's naval dominance, prepares for a war in the west while intensifying its naval buildup. Meanwhile Britain and France formalise an alliance, hoping to counterbalance Germany.
- War comes in the 1910s or '20s. Germany has an even stronger navy, a more experienced army and can focus solely on the west.

Do you think this is plausible? I'll be audacious and say that I reckon this (or something like it later on) could have happened with enough long-term planning and compromise on the part of the Germans. Britain wasn't alarmed by Germany's naval buildup until its fourth naval bill in 1908, whereas at the time it had serious reservations about Russia's expansion into China and possible threat to India.

I'd love to hear your thoughts! :)

perfidious albion turn round and say 'we're not getting involved in a war against France' and Germany find themselves in a 2 front war
 
IIRC the source that made the Russians trigger happy about IJN torpedo boats on the Dogger Bank was from the Kaiser. The Germans don’t want Russian Naval Power crushed as with The RN vs the Franco-Russians Germany holds the balance.
 
Brest-Litovsk type treaty would be too much. Also this conflict would be a lot less grinding and exhausting then ww1 especially for the Germans and Brits. France could likely back now not wanting to fight Brits and Germany at the same time especially since a country like Italy might also join in against them just to get it’s claims and spoils. Brits would focus on destroying the Russian naval forces, blockades, secure some major points, and let the Germans fight the main Russian military. Russia is probably stubborn and tries to keep fighting at first but Britain and Germany are going to most likely win. Russia tries to give some concessions to Britain to stop the blockades(stuff relating to their expansion in Asia. Britain more wants to contain them not take much directly).

I think Germany going to take a good bit but not as much as the Brest-Litovsk treaty. That would piss off Brits too much. Germany(more so Wilhelm on the navy part) wants a powerful navy but not really war with the Brits. Some in the German military thought Germany should focus on army more and have defensive navy instead. Many German imperialist and militarist are more interested in Europe then overseas colonies unlike Britain or even France. Wilhelm and the most hardline right wingers seemed to be the only people in the empire deadest on expanding oversea colonies and the navy. The Brits are going to be willing to give a bit and work with Germany since they did the bulk of the fighting in Russia but they will try to stop them from expanding too much. The balance of power is a completely bullshit idea encouraged by Britain. It’s more of them making sure no one becomes too powerful on mainland Europe because that could become a threat to homeland security and British global dominance. Britain talking about balance of power is very hypocritical and ironic since they control 2/3 of the world population and never has the sun set on them. British balance of power is similar to US containment of communism. Britain is looking to control trade, the seas, and have allies that can do what they want but be pressured when needed(that’s where British trade and navy comes in).

Germany probably frees(puppets) Poland, Baltic States, and maybe Finland too. Poland and Baltic states will be straight up puppets but Finland is fully independent. Finland would probably be given even more land then otl. There border could be up to St. Petersburg. Germany will have troops stationed in Baltic states after the war to help deal with Russia quickly if they ever become a issue again. Romania could also be given its claims but going any further then that might push things especially with Britain and France. If Britain pulls out before Germany, France attacking the Germans from the west after the British peace out is still something they have to consider and worry about. Demanding Ukraine as a puppet is Germany asking for too much. In otl treaty with Russia in ww1 they didn’t have to care about what other powers thought since they were at war with them. Here they do.

But a victory like this almost secures German dominance of the continental Europe for the most part. The have buffers and allies against Russia. If ww1 went down similar to otl. Germany would be in a great position. They would be in St. Petersburg within the first which is big even if it’s not the capital anymore(if Russian Empire was smart they would have move the capital to Moscow after the war). They probably have their Baltic and Polish puppets ready for Russia. Finland probably on their side and ready too. Romania could go either way. They might be closer to Germany due to them getting land from them(Giving Romania land makes them more open to an alliances and weaken Germany. Also Romania isn’t a threat or have anything Germany directly wants). Germany could still attack Belgium like otl which could lead to a very low point in Anglo-German relations but Britain might not join at least directly due to the advantages the Germans now have. Austria-Hungary, Italy, Bulgaria, and the Ottomans could all be on Germany side. Britain might try to avoid fighting that since Germany is already invading France and Russia at a rapid rate.

Another option is Russia looks away from Europe after losing the war and focuses on expansion in Asia. This would be interesting because the major powers like France, Britain, and Russia will be looking away from Europe while Germany is focused on economic expansion within Europe especially puppets and allies. Russia has the east while France and Britain has its oversea colonies. If Wilhelm is still stepping on the toes of Britain and wasting money on unnecessary navy or colonies while Germany is figuring out how to deal with its new polish and Baltic puppets I would not say it is unlikely he ends up assassinated, coup, or pressured/forced to give up the throne in favor of one of his sons. The German military has a lot of influence especially the army. That growing army feeling towards Wilhelm can go downhill real quick if he starts ignoring their demands especially out east. I think the world wars prevented this from happening to Germany but monarchies with a large stand armies or one that have a good bit of influence seem the more prone to being overthrown by right wing militarists.
 
France, considering its prospects, backs out of its alliance with Russia.
How could this happen? I don't see how France will back out of the alliance.
perfidious albion turn round and say 'we're not getting involved in a war against France' and Germany find themselves in a 2 front war

It can easily happen, at least at the beginning, because by the terms established in the Franco-Russian Alliance Military Convention,which is the basis of the Alliance, France is only obligated to help Russia in war: "if Russia is attacked by Germany, or by Austria supported by Germany" and then, what the French are supposed to do (again, by the explicit terms of the convention) is "employ all her available forces to attack Germany". The only way to activate the Alliance against Britain is for it to be one of the Powers belonging to the Triple Alliance. Because Britain is not part of the Triple Alliance, and nor the Triple Alliance, nor Germany, nor Austria supported by Germany, are involved in this war, France can stay on it (something that they wanted,especially in 1904, which is the same year in which the document that originated the Entente Cordiale was signed) without backing out or breaking the Alliance from a legal point of view. However, if Wilhelm II smells blood and declares war on Russia, then THAT is going to activate the Alliance, and France should be involved. As Scotty said, the French only need to ask the British if they are allied to Germany or just have the same enemy, the Brits are going to say that is just a coincidence (especially if the Kaiser makes public his intention that he wants to upset the "Balance of Power" in Germany´s favour.), and then the French are going to happily bring to Germany a two-front war "Pour Alsace-Lorraine!".

This probably means that the most probable result of this attempt of Wilhem II to play Bismarck will end up starting World War One ten years early, because the Triple Alliance (if we believe Italy´s OTL excuse to not join Germany and Austria-Hungary´ side), is a DEFENSIVE ALLIANCE, so France going to war with Germany can force Austria-Hungary and Italy to go into war with France (Unless Italy blames Germany for starting the war without their imput, pulling out the very same OTL excuse).
 
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