WI: Britain and France Don't Declare War On Germany After Poland Invasion

Invading France would risk an eventual Soviet invasion of Nazi Germany, though.

Not any more then it did OTL, what with the non-aggression pact and Stalin being cautious and all. Militarily, Hitler believed Russia an afterthought... a bankrupt regime of cultureless barbarians squatting in the ruins of a civilization whose only greatness had been transplanted onto it by its now usurped ruling class (Hitler was fond of pointing to all the German blood in the Czars).

Hitler actually wanted to invade France immediately after the war with Poland, and was only stopped by his horrified generals stalling until winter arrived. It's pretty clear that whatever his immediate reaction might have been to the Allies' own reaction to his attack on Poland, Hitler had been itching to have a go at France for years. Hitler was also fully aware of the increasing pace of French re-armament, something he harangued his generals with repeatedly in October of 1939 when they pleaded with him for more time to rest and plan. Basically, so long as France was mobilizing and re-arming, Hitler was always going to push to attack them as soon as possible.

There's a risk that when the Soviets attack Finland that Britain declares war on them. If that happens Germany is may do the same.

Which is why Stalin probably doesn't attack Finland in the winter 1939/40. He only did that OTL when the rest of Europe was embroiled in war with itself. So the IATL Winter War is liable to come in 1940/41 once Hitler attacks the French.

A Rhine border might be problematic due to logistics, though. After all, there won't be any Lend-Lease to the Soviet Union in this TL.

Given that a 1940 Barbarossa would see the Germans stall out around the D'niepr river line, the lack of L-L doesn't matter much in the face of all the extra economic resources the Soviets retain.
 
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Please keep in mind that Hitler was pragmatic in regards to some territorial claims, though. Indeed, that's why he was willing to sell out the South Tyrol Germans.

Thus, why not do a similar deal with France in regards to the Alsace-Lorraine Germans (many of whom considered themselves to be French, for the record)?

A Rhine border might be problematic due to logistics, though. After all, there won't be any Lend-Lease to the Soviet Union in this TL.

South Tyrol is part of an integral allied nation of the Reich whose favor Hitler needed. That being the operative difference. It also wasn't a traditional part of the modern nation of Germany (part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire). Alsace and Lorraine were different. Hitler wanted those areas and wanted them bad. Losing them was also a symbol of German humiliation from losing WWI in a way South Tyrol was not.

All depends on how badly the Germans get their tails kicked.
 
I suspected it might to an extent. Depends if Churchill is prepared to accept the fait acompli re Poland and go after his No1 bugbear - communists.

No, his No. 1 bugbear was Nazism. Sure, communism was his original enemy, but he realised how much greater a threat Nazism was. He didn't spend the late 30s warning of the threat of Stalin, put it that way.

If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
South Tyrol is part of an integral allied nation of the Reich whose favor Hitler needed. That being the operative difference. It also wasn't a traditional part of the modern nation of Germany (part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire). Alsace and Lorraine were different. Hitler wanted those areas and wanted them bad. Losing them was also a symbol of German humiliation from losing WWI in a way South Tyrol was not.

All depends on how badly the Germans get their tails kicked.
Actually, Alsace-Lorraine appears to have been rather minor for Hitler:

https://books.google.com/books?id=z...e&q=hitler alsace-lorraine statements&f=false
 

Well, the general tone of the source seems to be that he considered Alsace-Lorraine a detail in a much larger overall plan to take all of France, so he didn't feel the need to focus in too hard on that specifically because it would have been redundant, being already covered within larger themes and concepts.

Honestly that worldview probably makes war with France even less avoidable.
 
"We must at last become entirely clear about this: The German people's irreconcilable mortal enemy is and remains France."
-Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf

Hitler would probably have invaded France in May of 1940 anyway. Hitler clearly believed France would have to be defeated before Germany could attain her destiny. It makes military sense anyway: Germany can't afford a massive war against Russia if there's a chance that France could stab them in the back at any time. And Hitler saw France as ultimately the greater threat and the one that would have to be dealt with soonest. By comparison, he was rather dismissive of the Soviets.
IIRC, the quote is a bit away, Hitler in 1928 wanted to crush SU first, then France. That might change by 1939 but it does fit the concept of dismantling his enemies in short decisive campaigns and leave the biggest task last.
 
Invading France would risk an eventual Soviet invasion of Nazi Germany, though. Indeed, either Nazi Germany risks a French invasion by attacking the USSR or risks a Soviet invasion by attacking France. Thus, I suspect that Hitler will go for the USSR since that's where the Communist threat is and where the overwhelming majority of his desired Lebensraum is.

On the other side of the scale there is

1. France is less powerful than the SU. Hitler's typically bullyish MO was to attack the weakest target first, gather strength, then move on to the next one.
2. France is also smaller than the USSR, both in terms of sheer area and in terms of travel speeds (which depend on good infrastructure). Exactly because Germany would risk once again to be in the position of fighting on two fronts (something Hitler rightly loathed), taking care of the quickest business first made sense exactly as the last time this happened (WWI).
 

Greenville

Banned
Really I think if there is no declaration of war, Germany begins even earlier with the Soviet invasion. Without needless intervention in Greece and around the Aegean to help Italy before Operation Barbarossa, I think it may go better considering it will have more troops available without the occupation of France and other countries. If it begins earlier well before the winter, there's a good chance that the German army does reach Moscow and capture it. I expect a long term battle however like in Stalingrad or Leningrad, but it could be captured. The Germans get further, but probably lose in the end.
 
Really I think if there is no declaration of war, Germany begins even earlier with the Soviet invasion. Without needless intervention in Greece and around the Aegean to help Italy before Operation Barbarossa, I think it may go better considering it will have more troops available without the occupation of France and other countries.

Er. Is Germany attacking the USSR in 1940? Then you do know how many troops it had, the same it had for the campaign in the West. Which is not "more troops" than OTL 1941.

Or is Germany attacking the USSR in 1941 without having invaded France, Holland, Belgium etc.? In that case, Germany might have more men than in OTL 1941, sure. That does not necessarily equate with having more troops.

Just to talk about trucks, in 1941
- 13 of the infantry divisions of the 3. Welle were equipped with French or other foreign motor vehicles;
- 2 of the infantry divisions of the 4. Welle were equipped with French motor vehicles;
- all 5 infantry divisions of the 5. Welle were equipped with captured or foreign-produced motor vehicles;
- all 4 infantry divisions of the 6. Welle were equipped with captured motor vehicles;
- 1 infantry division of the 7. Welle was equipped with French motor vehicles;
- all 10 infantry divisions of the 11. Welle were equipped with captured motor vehicles;
- 4 infantry divisions of the 12. Welle were equipped with foreign-produced motor vehicles;
- all the 9 infantry divisions of the 13. Welle were equipped with captured motor vehicles;
- all the 8 infantry divisions of the 14. Welle were equipped with captured motor vehicles.
The occupation-duty divisions of the 15. Welle (the "700" series) also were of course equipped with locally procured vehicles, but they wouldn't be deployed to frontline combat in the SU.
 
Anyone have knowledge of when the German leaders actually expected a war with France, or the USSR? Hitler himself was a bit surprised or nonplussed when Britain and France actually declared war and mobilised their army's Sept 39.
 
Anyone have knowledge of when the German leaders actually expected a war with France, or the USSR? Hitler himself was a bit surprised or nonplussed when Britain and France actually declared war and mobilised their army's Sept 39.

That depends when. For instance, in 1937, we know from the Hossbach memo that Hitler was telling his generals that war with Britain and France would be unavoidable in the end, and that delaying it beyond 1943 to 1945 would have been a mistake, since by then those two "hate-inspired" enemies would have rearmed to a point as to deny the current German advantage.

Then, in late 1938-early 1939, the gigantic (and unfundable) Plan Z would have envisioned a Kriegsmarine capable to slug it out with the Royal Navy by 1948, and ready to make a reasonable attempt at that by 1946.

Later in 1939, before the invasion of Poland, he told his generals that he reckoned Britain would not be ready for a war before 1941-42, and he also made clear that he did not want war with Britain as he attacked Poland, but he'd be ready to have it later.

On top of those variations, you also have to add that what he said isn't necessarily what he really believed.
 
That depends when. For instance, in 1937, we know from the Hossbach memo that Hitler was telling his generals that war with Britain and France would be unavoidable in the end, and that delaying it beyond 1943 to 1945 would have been a mistake, since by then those two "hate-inspired" enemies would have rearmed to a point as to deny the current German advantage.

Then, in late 1938-early 1939, the gigantic (and unfundable) Plan Z would have envisioned a Kriegsmarine capable to slug it out with the Royal Navy by 1948, and ready to make a reasonable attempt at that by 1946.

Later in 1939, before the invasion of Poland, he told his generals that he reckoned Britain would not be ready for a war before 1941-42, and he also made clear that he did not want war with Britain as he attacked Poland, but he'd be ready to have it later.

On top of those variations, you also have to add that what he said isn't necessarily what he really believed.
Plans are, of course, just plans, but I think it's probably not unreasonable for a German strategist in mid-1939 to believe that the invasion of Poland would simply lead to one more round of crisis negotiations, especially given that the Soviets would be invading, too. It's obviously a miscalculation in hindsight, but I don't think it's totally irrational at the time.

And if war doesn't come over Poland and Hitler doesn't attack France, it's a safe bet the French and British are going to hesitate about going to war to save the communists. Wouldn't it be more likely to be Stalin's original plan in reverse, i.e. wait on the sidelines while the communists and the fascists kill themselves off?

I mean, to an extent that's what happened anyways.

Edited to add: having said all of that, I'm surprised there hasn't been much debate over the most obvious consequence of no war in 1939, which is that when the Germans launch Sea Lion in 1940, it'll come as a complete strategic surprise to the British and they'll fold within days.
 
Edited to add: having said all of that, I'm surprised there hasn't been much debate over the most obvious consequence of no war in 1939, which is that when the Germans launch Sea Lion in 1940, it'll come as a complete strategic surprise to the British and they'll fold within days.

Well, sure, I'd say within hours. But it won't be as great a surprise as the German landing on the moon in 1941.
 
France would have it coming sooner or later anyhow. The NAZI power-base had just too many WWI generals hungry for glory and spoiling for a rematch. One of them would eventually launch an invasion just to keep all his rivel genera;s from going in first and stealing his thunder.
This is the Wermacht, not the Kwangtung Army.
 

Archibald

Banned
France motto was "wait until 1941, wait until 1941, wait until 1941." And also "wait until 1941". By this time both army and air force would have been massively enlarged and better equiped. More D-520s, the first Arsenal VG-33s (160 of them were to roll out of production lines by July), and a mass of american aircrafts (DB-7, Martin 167, hundreds of Curtiss including P-40s, and even a handful of freakin' B-24 Liberators). The Armée de l'air plan for 1941 was to grow to 9500 combat aircrafts. Same for the army, large number of tanks. The infamous "single man turret" would be on the way out. Also more radios.

The major issue with France not declaring war in September 1939 is the 3rd Republic instability. The government would have fallen (as usual since 1877).With Reynaud gone Daladier would probably step in. There was little to none alternative.
Daladier and Reynaud both wanted to declare war. Despite the trauma of 1914-18 France was going to war sooner rather than later. Hitler was seen as a growing threat and, not being an island, France had to re-arm.
 
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That depends when. For instance, in 1937, we know from the Hossbach memo that Hitler was telling his generals that war with Britain and France would be unavoidable in the end, and that delaying it beyond 1943 to 1945 would have been a mistake, since by then those two "hate-inspired" enemies would have rearmed to a point as to deny the current German advantage.

Then, in late 1938-early 1939, the gigantic (and unfundable) Plan Z would have envisioned a Kriegsmarine capable to slug it out with the Royal Navy by 1948, and ready to make a reasonable attempt at that by 1946.

Later in 1939, before the invasion of Poland, he told his generals that he reckoned Britain would not be ready for a war before 1941-42, and he also made clear that he did not want war with Britain as he attacked Poland, but he'd be ready to have it later.

On top of those variations, you also have to add that what he said isn't necessarily what he really believed.

& Where does war with the USSR lie in the German record, such as it is? I'm fairly sure Hitler himself was not thinking 1946 or something. If the third hand info I've heard is accurate then 1940 or 41 was the nominal window.

So: 1939- Poland

1940-41- USSR

1942-43- France

Along the way a formal agreement dividing the world with Britain, and the US would have the Monroe Doctrine stuffed where the Sun don't shine allowing the Reich's commercial domination of Latin America.
 
& Where does war with the USSR lie in the German record, such as it is? I'm fairly sure Hitler himself was not thinking 1946 or something. If the third hand info I've heard is accurate then 1940 or 41 was the nominal window.

So: 1939- Poland

1940-41- USSR

1942-43- France

Along the way a formal agreement dividing the world with Britain, and the US would have the Monroe Doctrine stuffed where the Sun don't shine allowing the Reich's commercial domination of Latin America.

was there ever any indication that occupying the Low Countries was to be separate campaign? a defensive campaign that might stop there and then possibly USSR?

although obviously by the time it was carried out that was not the plan.
 
Not that I've noticed, but there is not a lot of literature in English on German war plans. The only remotely complete one I've run across is Mays 'Strange Victory' that focuses exclusively on the development of the Plan Yellow (Case Gelb). Mays does make a remark on a proposal in January or February 1940 the Netherlands be dropped from the plan. No violation of Dutch nuetrality. The air force leaders protested as they felt the Dutch airfields would be essential for 'attacking England'. So the Netherlands invasion was retained in Plan Yellow.

Notice how the Siegfied Line fortifications extend north behind the Masstrict appendix. That suggests the predominate concept was one of defending east of that border.
 
... The Armée de l'air plan for 1941 was to grow to 9500 combat aircrafts. Same for the army, large number of tanks. The infamous "single man turret" would be on the way out. Also more radios.

...

Thats near 75% of what the Allies had based in the UK for Op OVERLORD in 1944. Add in the RAF & the Allied target strength for their 1941 or 1942 offensive against Germany would have rivaled that of the total OVERLORD/DRAGOON operational combat aircraft. OTL the German air force was never able to break above 6,000 operational combat aircraft on all fronts. So, you have to wonder how the war would go from mid or latter 1941 with a rearmed, reorganized, and retrained Allied air force that may outnumber the enemy by 2-1 or better.
 
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Britain and France severely damage their reputations and trustworthiness.

Also, this might bring forward the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union by one year (to June 1940).

You may be right.

What happens is that Russia acts in Finland and then the weakness of the West's response gets manifested in sending troops to Finland's aid through Sweden. Without Germany at war with Sweden, the Wallies probably pressure Norway and Sweden into allowing their troops to pass through. Germany allows it, knowing that denying entry definitely starts was with the West, something Hitler would avoid if it did not cost him anything.

Russia's poor performance in Finland (which ITTL may turn into actual defeat) probably leads to a peace with the West before anything like bombing Baku.

Hitler, smelling Russian weakness, invades Russia roughly around the start date of the OTL invasion of France. ITTL, things are tougher going for Germany, simply because Romania and Hungary will remain neutral and the Baltic states will simply sit idly by. The opening phases of the war will be through a weakly defended Polish frontier and then a tough to crack Stalin Line properly manned in the forests of Belarus. The battle will turn attritional and defensive, which actually plays to whatever strength the Soviet Union will have (as their mindless counter-attacks were what sunk them in 41-42.)

By 43, the Russians will be in East Prussia and Silesia. I presume the Western Allies will then declare war for no better reason than preventing the Russian occupation of Germany. Ironically, we have a Germany split roughly as OTL but without US participation. Russia is much stronger, having never lost Kharkov (and maybe even Kiev.) Russia may then betray Japan and permanently occupy Manchuria and Korea, something the US will not be able to prevent as there is no true alliance between the two powers ITTL.
 
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