WI: Brian Topp wins 2012 NDP Leadership Election

He came fairly close and was leading in the polls, so what would this year's Election look like if he did win, beating Tom Mulcair? Would the New Democrats be more to the left?
 
The NDP would probably be a bit more to the left, yes.

As for how Topp's leadership would look like, it's worth keeping in mind that, at the time, theoretical polls had him performing significantly worse than Mulcair, with the NDP falling into third-place nationwide and tanking (comparatively) in Quebec. I'm not saying that Topp wouldn't be able to recover - indeed, Mulcair had been in third-place for most of the last few months, and look at where he is now - but the fact that Topp performs 20-points worse than Mulcair in Quebec and falls to third-place behind the Conservatives and the pre-Trudeaumania Liberals indicates he may well be in trouble for the first few months of his leadership.

That said, I think this produces too many butterflies to be able to determine how the 2015 election would shape out. For instance, if the Liberals end up returning to second, would Trudeau still feel it's necessary to run for the leadership, or would Bob Rae find the permanent leadership a more attractive job and decide to enter the race, as many expected IOTL? If Topp follows through on his promise to seek a seat in the House of Commons by asking one of the party's Quebec MPs to resign, will he actually be able to win given that the NDP may have sunk significantly in the province while the Bloc may have experienced a rebound? And, if the Bloc has in fact returned to their former levels of support, will Daniel Paille decide to stay on as leader, or in the event that he does will someone else replace him instead of Mario Beaulieu? Frankly, I think the political landscape would just change so significantly with Topp as leader instead of Mulcair that I think it's too hard to predict what would happen.

All that said, assuming everything goes relatively similarly to OTL, with all of the other party leaders being the same as OTL, I imagine the NDP is probably doing worse overall. Topp, due to his Western connections (involvement in the BC NDP, his former role of Chief of Staff to Roy Romanow, etc.) may have more appeal west of Ontario than Mulcair (given that he's from Quebec, as well as some of the more negative remarks he's made about things like pipelines and the oil industry), though I'm almost certain the party will be doing far worse in Quebec (with the prime benefactors likely being the Liberals and the Bloc).
 
The NDP would probably be a bit more to the left, yes.

As for how Topp's leadership would look like, it's worth keeping in mind that, at the time, theoretical polls had him performing significantly worse than Mulcair, with the NDP falling into third-place nationwide and tanking (comparatively) in Quebec. I'm not saying that Topp wouldn't be able to recover - indeed, Mulcair had been in third-place for most of the last few months, and look at where he is now - but the fact that Topp performs 20-points worse than Mulcair in Quebec and falls to third-place behind the Conservatives and the pre-Trudeaumania Liberals indicates he may well be in trouble for the first few months of his leadership.

That said, I think this produces too many butterflies to be able to determine how the 2015 election would shape out. For instance, if the Liberals end up returning to second, would Trudeau still feel it's necessary to run for the leadership, or would Bob Rae find the permanent leadership a more attractive job and decide to enter the race, as many expected IOTL? If Topp follows through on his promise to seek a seat in the House of Commons by asking one of the party's Quebec MPs to resign, will he actually be able to win given that the NDP may have sunk significantly in the province while the Bloc may have experienced a rebound? And, if the Bloc has in fact returned to their former levels of support, will Daniel Paille decide to stay on as leader, or in the event that he does will someone else replace him instead of Mario Beaulieu? Frankly, I think the political landscape would just change so significantly with Topp as leader instead of Mulcair that I think it's too hard to predict what would happen.

All that said, assuming everything goes relatively similarly to OTL, with all of the other party leaders being the same as OTL, I imagine the NDP is probably doing worse overall. Topp, due to his Western connections (involvement in the BC NDP, his former role of Chief of Staff to Roy Romanow, etc.) may have more appeal west of Ontario than Mulcair (given that he's from Quebec, as well as some of the more negative remarks he's made about things like pipelines and the oil industry), though I'm almost certain the party will be doing far worse in Quebec (with the prime benefactors likely being the Liberals and the Bloc).

This. Canadian politics has not been known for its stability lately.
 
Paille resigned for health reasons. Beaulieu could be butterflied given how narrow his win was. Bellevance is meh but not actively toxic like Beaulieu, so no Duceppe comeback. Bloc would be ignored as per OTL, and while Topp would not have Mulcair's personal reputation, the other parties' flaws and NDP qualities are still there.
 
Paille resigned for health reasons. Beaulieu could be butterflied given how narrow his win was. Bellevance is meh but not actively toxic like Beaulieu, so no Duceppe comeback. Bloc would be ignored as per OTL, and while Topp would not have Mulcair's personal reputation, the other parties' flaws and NDP qualities are still there.

Yeah, I think it's pretty likely that Paille resigns either way, but what I meant was that compared to OTL there would likely be a lot more people who think being Bloc leader is actually a worthwhile job. People like Pierre Paquette or maybe Duceppe a year earlier.
 
Having dealt with Brian Topp personally on a couple of occasions, I came away seriously underwhelmed. I think he can be a decent staffer and strategist, but does not have the chops to lead a party. Under Topp the NDP would be in the low-20s'.
 
Having dealt with Brian Topp personally on a couple of occasions, I came away seriously underwhelmed. I think he can be a decent staffer and strategist, but does not have the chops to lead a party. Under Topp the NDP would be in the low-20s'.

Exactly. He's the type of person that you can tell is an impressive, backroom political strategist but would not necessarily fare all that well as an actual politician.
 
For instance, if the Liberals end up returning to second, would Trudeau still feel it's necessary to run for the leadership, or would Bob Rae find the permanent leadership a more attractive job and decide to enter the race, as many expected IOTL?

Even if Rae decides not to run and Trudeau does, there could be some serious changes. Trudeau's campaign was that, essentially, he was the party's only hope to remaining relevant; but with the party in better shape, that argument evaporates. Garneau would become a serious contender and probably the favourite to win. Joyce Murray won't run on a platform of co-operation with the NDP, and will likely do better (though probably not win). And maybe a few other people would toss their hat into the ring now that the leadership isn't a poisoned chalice— Scott Brison?

I agree with you that this changes the political landscape so much as to be completely unpredictable.
 
Even if Rae decides not to run and Trudeau does, there could be some serious changes. Trudeau's campaign was that, essentially, he was the party's only hope to remaining relevant; but with the party in better shape, that argument evaporates. Garneau would become a serious contender and probably the favourite to win. Joyce Murray won't run on a platform of co-operation with the NDP, and will likely do better (though probably not win). And maybe a few other people would toss their hat into the ring now that the leadership isn't a poisoned chalice— Scott Brison?

I agree with you that this changes the political landscape so much as to be completely unpredictable.

Well, if he ran, I still think Trudeau would be the frontrunner (although probably not against Rae). Even if people aren't voting for him just because he's seemingly the most electable candidate, he still received the votes of nearly 80% of Liberal supporters (and on the first ballot), which isn't exactly a narrow victory.

But yeah, I imagine the race would be closer and, particularly if Trudeau sat out, I imagine we could see campaigns from people like Brison and Dominic LeBlanc.
 
It's my understanding that a large part of Trudeau's appeal was that he could bring an amount of celebrity and attention to the then-ailing, distant-third-place party. Likewise, Garneau's campaign struggled because he was seen as too old and too boring to lead the Liberals in a crucial time.

In a scenario where the NDP is lead by Topp (who has no charisma), and is trailing the Liberals under an interim leader, neither argument has any standing. The Liberals don't need a shot in the arm, they're already doing fine. So that changes the nature of the leadership race entirely.
 
So, would the NDP be more to the left, and hence look like OTL 2015 Greens? Or would they go farther left?

Would the Socialist clause be scrapped from the party constitution?
 
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