WI: Brian Boru survives Clontarf

What would have happened if Brian Boru and his sons had survived the Battle of Clontarf? I understand (correct me if I'm wrong) that after Clontarf Boru would have been essentially been ruling over all of Ireland. I know he was an old man, but it doesn't seem all that implausible to me that he could have lived on for five more years or so and consolidated it, and then passed his kingdom on to an able son who does some more consolidating, turning Ireland into a proper feudal kingdom.

Now, I understand a united Ireland would never become a world power, but I do think this would have butterflied William Strongbow's invasion (which established the first English prescence in Ireland), or at least made it much mroe likely that his initial invasion would be repelled. I also think its likely that Ireland could have kept its independence-Portugal, after all, successfully remained seperate from Spain, and it seems to me that the two situations would have been somewhat similar. Furthermore, I understand that early medieval Ireland had a seafaring culture, and while I don't really see them becoming a naval power, I can see an Irish sugar island or two in the Caribbean, and perhaps an outpost somewhere in North or South America. Assuming no butterflies, they might grab a small chunk of Africa for themselves in the 1880's

In the 19th century, Ireland wouldn't have suffered from a class of foreign, largely absantee landlords of a different denomination from the populace, so it might have had greater economic development and a somewhat higher population (maybe 8 million or so for the whole island). Best case scenario-Ireland develops, economically, like Britain and the other areas of Northern Europe, and in 2011 is a rather small but well-off independent, Gaelic-speaking country.

Thoughts?
 
What would have happened if Brian Boru and his sons had survived the Battle of Clontarf? I understand (correct me if I'm wrong) that after Clontarf Boru would have been essentially been ruling over all of Ireland. I know he was an old man, but it doesn't seem all that implausible to me that he could have lived on for five more years or so and consolidated it, and then passed his kingdom on to an able son who does some more consolidating, turning Ireland into a proper feudal kingdom.

Now, I understand a united Ireland would never become a world power, but I do think this would have butterflied William Strongbow's invasion (which established the first English prescence in Ireland), or at least made it much mroe likely that his initial invasion would be repelled. I also think its likely that Ireland could have kept its independence-Portugal, after all, successfully remained seperate from Spain, and it seems to me that the two situations would have been somewhat similar. Furthermore, I understand that early medieval Ireland had a seafaring culture, and while I don't really see them becoming a naval power, I can see an Irish sugar island or two in the Caribbean, and perhaps an outpost somewhere in North or South America. Assuming no butterflies, they might grab a small chunk of Africa for themselves in the 1880's

In the 19th century, Ireland wouldn't have suffered from a class of foreign, largely absantee landlords of a different denomination from the populace, so it might have had greater economic development and a somewhat higher population (maybe 8 million or so for the whole island). Best case scenario-Ireland develops, economically, like Britain and the other areas of Northern Europe, and in 2011 is a rather small but well-off independent, Gaelic-speaking country.

Thoughts?
It all depends on if Ireland could develop a strong monarchy with a more centralized administration rather than the decentralized tribalism of earlier times, I would say.
 
It all depends on if Ireland could develop a strong monarchy with a more centralized administration rather than the decentralized tribalism of earlier times, I would say.

So let's assume that it does. Tara or Dublin would probably be the capital. England will likely turn its sights on Ireland at some point, regardless of Norman intervention. Now, if it's Saxon England that does the invading, Ireland might have a decent chance to repel, perhaps even launching retaliatory raids. Anglo-Normans, though, have heavy cavalry, not something that Irish warfare is prepared to deal with effectively. Guerrilla warfare should be able to wear down the invading force in that case, but much hinges on how well the O'Briens have been able to forge a national identity, and the loyalty of the nobles and population.

Past this though, much is possible.
 
So let's assume that it does. Tara or Dublin would probably be the capital. England will likely turn its sights on Ireland at some point, regardless of Norman intervention. Now, if it's Saxon England that does the invading, Ireland might have a decent chance to repel, perhaps even launching retaliatory raids. Anglo-Normans, though, have heavy cavalry, not something that Irish warfare is prepared to deal with effectively. Guerrilla warfare should be able to wear down the invading force in that case, but much hinges on how well the O'Briens have been able to forge a national identity, and the loyalty of the nobles and population.

Past this though, much is possible.

I would imagine the first capital would be at Tara, but that over time it may drift towards Dublin, Waterford, Wexford or even Cork to have a better trade position.
 
I would imagine the first capital would be at Tara, but that over time it may drift towards Dublin, Waterford, Wexford or even Cork to have a better trade position.

I think a good central location would probably work best, leaving the latter three out.

Butterflies could have untold effects on things like the Age of Exploration and the Reformation. The first is going to happen at some point, and it'll probably still be the Iberian kingdoms that take the lead on that, provided that the Reconquista proceeds as scheduled. If not, perhaps Andalusia will fill the vacuum, perhaps not. I'd imagine so, and depending on how much of Iberia remains under Muslim rule, Galicia, Asturias and Navarre would form its initial competition. Again, butterflies will make this a very preliminary guess, but assuming that northern Europe turns out more or less as OTL, with England, France and the Dutch Republic* as the main seafaring powers, Ireland would definitely join in this game. It has about the same, if not greater, population as the Netherlands, combined with not having to worry about land invasion and ports opening directly into the Atlantic. Newfoundland seems the most likely bit of North America to become Irish, which then opens the way into the St. Lawrence Valley. In the Caribbean, well, open season.

Now, still assuming minimal butterflies and the Church still being corrupt, would Ireland follow along with the Reformation, perhaps hearkening back to the old Irish Church, more or less equivalent to what became the Church of England. Now, does England still become Protestant? Without the specific circumstances of OTL, it'd probably be messier, think the French Wars of Religion, but I think it would still happen, based on England's trade links with Scandinavia and northern Germany. If not, well, it has a perfect excuse to launch an attack on the Irish heretics...

*But without Spain... Ai...
 
I think a good central location would probably work best, leaving the latter three out.

Butterflies could have untold effects on things like the Age of Exploration and the Reformation. The first is going to happen at some point, and it'll probably still be the Iberian kingdoms that take the lead on that, provided that the Reconquista proceeds as scheduled. If not, perhaps Andalusia will fill the vacuum, perhaps not. I'd imagine so, and depending on how much of Iberia remains under Muslim rule, Galicia, Asturias and Navarre would form its initial competition. Again, butterflies will make this a very preliminary guess, but assuming that northern Europe turns out more or less as OTL, with England, France and the Dutch Republic* as the main seafaring powers, Ireland would definitely join in this game. It has about the same, if not greater, population as the Netherlands, combined with not having to worry about land invasion and ports opening directly into the Atlantic. Newfoundland seems the most likely bit of North America to become Irish, which then opens the way into the St. Lawrence Valley. In the Caribbean, well, open season.

Now, still assuming minimal butterflies and the Church still being corrupt, would Ireland follow along with the Reformation, perhaps hearkening back to the old Irish Church, more or less equivalent to what became the Church of England. Now, does England still become Protestant? Without the specific circumstances of OTL, it'd probably be messier, think the French Wars of Religion, but I think it would still happen, based on England's trade links with Scandinavia and northern Germany. If not, well, it has a perfect excuse to launch an attack on the Irish heretics...

*But without Spain... Ai...

In relation to the Irish Celtic Church, from what I've read, a lot of the customs of the Celtic Church were still common into the late 12th Century, with Catholicism only really winning out because of Influence from England. Certainly if Ireland is united in about 1000ad, it increases the likelyhood of a distinctly Irish Church surviving until the 16th Century, at which point the clergy may decide to just make the differences official.
 
In relation to the Irish Celtic Church, from what I've read, a lot of the customs of the Celtic Church were still common into the late 12th Century, with Catholicism only really winning out because of Influence from England. Certainly if Ireland is united in about 1000ad, it increases the likelyhood of a distinctly Irish Church surviving until the 16th Century, at which point the clergy may decide to just make the differences official.

Ooh, good point, I forgot that bit about Laudabiliter... That's a pretty decent possibility. Of course, that could also be another source of conflict.
 
Ooh, good point, I forgot that bit about Laudabiliter... That's a pretty decent possibility. Of course, that could also be another source of conflict.

I was thinking it could be a situation whereby a particularly astute archbishop could play up on the important missionising credentials of the Irish Church as an excuse to allow 'certain lamentable idiosyncracies that remain within the heirarchy for the timebeing'. Essentially making sure that the key cathedrals and most important monastaries are at least favouring, if not following outright, the full Catholic Rites, while the smaller parish churches are left to do their own thing.
 
I was thinking it could be a situation whereby a particularly astute archbishop could play up on the important missionising credentials of the Irish Church as an excuse to allow 'certain lamentable idiosyncracies that remain within the heirarchy for the timebeing'. Essentially making sure that the key cathedrals and most important monastaries are at least favouring, if not following outright, the full Catholic Rites, while the smaller parish churches are left to do their own thing.

So, Uniate, more or less?
 
So, Uniate, more or less?

Yes, but in a more unofficial sense. The reformation would either bring an official stamp of approval on the state of affairs, or if the Pope goes full on counter-reformation stamp out all heresy, then it would probably break off. Expect a splinter group rejecting all Catholic tendencies as the 'Reinstated Celtic Church' or something similar anyway.
 
In relation to the Irish Celtic Church, from what I've read, a lot of the customs of the Celtic Church were still common into the late 12th Century, with Catholicism only really winning out because of Influence from England. Certainly if Ireland is united in about 1000ad, it increases the likelyhood of a distinctly Irish Church surviving until the 16th Century, at which point the clergy may decide to just make the differences official.

Although your timing is right, I disagree with the conclusion. Making a distinction between the "Celtic Church" and the Catholic Church is anachronistic. The "Celtic Church" is part of the Catholic Church, and it deviated in only a few ways from the mainstream Latin practice, notably in being monastic based rather than diocese based.

The Gregorian Reforms will be unaffected by what is going on in Ireland, and the Papacy is unlikely to tolerate deviationism in any Latin rite country. Whenever the reformers gain control of the Papcy and attempt to implement them, they will try to standardize practice throughout the West. The Uniate Church is not a precedent because the Greek Rite Churches were long standing and considered orthodox; Uniatism was only a means to extend papal authority. The "Celtic Church" will be brought inline the same as all the others so that all use the same liturgical rite. This will not be done by force, but through continued Papal diplomacy and centralization. The Pope, not the King of England, will be driving this.

In so far as there is the zeitgeist of the times, the trend will be towards the "Gregorian" Reforms (obviously, the the actual name of the reformer may be different ITL), not against it. The intellectual and spiritual climate of the times will incline people towards union and not nationalist division.

I'm sure there will be some idiosycracies unique to the Irish Church, but ultimately they won't disrupt communion with Rome. Expect to see most of the difference to be in the monasteries of Ireland which will have a different tradition than the continental monastic orders. Maybe a different style of illumination continues. That won't affect the actual clergy. In terms of liturgy, organization, and praxis, I'm very confidant the Irish Church will be the same as the rest of Europe.
 
I think a good central location would probably work best, leaving the latter three out.

Butterflies could have untold effects on things like the Age of Exploration and the Reformation. The first is going to happen at some point, and it'll probably still be the Iberian kingdoms that take the lead on that, provided that the Reconquista proceeds as scheduled. If not, perhaps Andalusia will fill the vacuum, perhaps not. I'd imagine so, and depending on how much of Iberia remains under Muslim rule, Galicia, Asturias and Navarre would form its initial competition. Again, butterflies will make this a very preliminary guess, but assuming that northern Europe turns out more or less as OTL, with England, France and the Dutch Republic* as the main seafaring powers, Ireland would definitely join in this game. It has about the same, if not greater, population as the Netherlands, combined with not having to worry about land invasion and ports opening directly into the Atlantic. Newfoundland seems the most likely bit of North America to become Irish, which then opens the way into the St. Lawrence Valley. In the Caribbean, well, open season.

Now, still assuming minimal butterflies and the Church still being corrupt, would Ireland follow along with the Reformation, perhaps hearkening back to the old Irish Church, more or less equivalent to what became the Church of England. Now, does England still become Protestant? Without the specific circumstances of OTL, it'd probably be messier, think the French Wars of Religion, but I think it would still happen, based on England's trade links with Scandinavia and northern Germany. If not, well, it has a perfect excuse to launch an attack on the Irish heretics...

*But without Spain... Ai...

I don't see how whats going on in Ireland would have any effect on whether the reconquista happens or not.

At any rate, this sounds more or less like what I was thinking of-a surviving Ireland as a low to mid-range sea power that keeps on England's good side (or occaisionally allies with France or Spain). As I said in the OP, sort of the Portugal of the British Isles, to England's Spain.

What sort of sea power could this Ireland establish? I can imagine trade outposts in India and Indonesia during the early age of exploration, though one of of the big boys (England, France, Dutch*, maybe even Spain) will probably wind up pushing them out of most of it. An Irish Saint Lawrence valley, though, seems like an interesting idea-IOTL Irish fishermen reached Newfoundland (it has a Gaelic name that translates to "Land of the fishes", the only place outside Ireland with a unique Irish exonym), and in this TL I can see them claiming Newfoundland in the 1500's, then using it as a base to colonize OTL Quebec. Since not that many other countries would be too interested in the "few acres of snow", there's probably a better than even chance that Ireland would keep it, at least till it starts trying to break away.

Also, just how different was the "Celtic Church" from the rest of Catholicism? And what would Irish relations with the main Catholic hierarchy and the Papacy most likely be?

And one rather minor thing-according to wikipedia, the harp as a symbol of Ireland didn't come into use until after the Anglo-Norman invasion. If this is true, then what would likely be TTL Ireland's symbol? Might they just adopt a generic lion or eagle, like a lot of the eastern and northern European countries that got exposed to heraldry rather late? I don't know how long Ireland would maintain its old trade and cultural links with Scandinavia, but its fun to think of them importing, say, the Nordic Cross flag. (Of course, this brings up a much wider point-would TTL Ireland's culture even be recognizable as "Irish"? How much of what we think of as "Irish culture" originates from the Anglo-Normans and British?)

*I think that, due to their central location in the northern European trade network, the Dutch are going to be wealthier than Ireland is, and consequently will have more resources at their disposal
 
I don't see how whats going on in Ireland would have any effect on whether the reconquista happens or not.

Five hundred years of butterfly effect?

At any rate, this sounds more or less like what I was thinking of-a surviving Ireland as a low to mid-range sea power that keeps on England's good side (or occaisionally allies with France or Spain). As I said in the OP, sort of the Portugal of the British Isles, to England's Spain.

Pretty much, yeah.

What sort of sea power could this Ireland establish? I can imagine trade outposts in India and Indonesia during the early age of exploration, though one of of the big boys (England, France, Dutch*, maybe even Spain) will probably wind up pushing them out of most of it.

Outposts in Africa, India and Indonesia-Malaysia, yeah, and probably a little island or two in the Caribbean. Mind you, outposts in India depends on who owns India, and how well...

An Irish Saint Lawrence valley, though, seems like an interesting idea-IOTL Irish fishermen reached Newfoundland (it has a Gaelic name that translates to "Land of the fishes", the only place outside Ireland with a unique Irish exonym), and in this TL I can see them claiming Newfoundland in the 1500's, then using it as a base to colonize OTL Quebec. Since not that many other countries would be too interested in the "few acres of snow", there's probably a better than even chance that Ireland would keep it, at least till it starts trying to break away.

Exactly, it's pretty much the most worthless bit of North America, so there shouldn't be much competition for it early on, even with the fur trade being as important. On the other hand, they're going to have to be careful about not irritating the other North American powers, or else they'll end up just like Canada...

Also, just how different was the "Celtic Church" from the rest of Catholicism? And what would Irish relations with the main Catholic hierarchy and the Papacy most likely be?

Different tonsure, different calculation for the date of Easter, service in the vernacular, nothing terrible.

I'd say it depends on Spain, and how threatening Islam seems to be in the West. Without a Reconquista, Ireland'll just be seen as weird, a little different but still Catholic, more or less. With, Ireland'll be two steps from heresy, which must be prevented and suppressed at all costs.

And one rather minor thing-according to wikipedia, the harp as a symbol of Ireland didn't come into use until after the Anglo-Norman invasion. If this is true, then what would likely be TTL Ireland's symbol? Might they just adopt a generic lion or eagle, like a lot of the eastern and northern European countries that got exposed to heraldry rather late? I don't know how long Ireland would maintain its old trade and cultural links with Scandinavia, but its fun to think of them importing, say, the Nordic Cross flag. (Of course, this brings up a much wider point-would TTL Ireland's culture even be recognizable as "Irish"? How much of what we think of as "Irish culture" originates from the Anglo-Normans and British?)

I lack the necessary information to comment on this, except to state that I didn't know the harp was of Norman origin. Hmm.

*I think that, due to their central location in the northern European trade network, the Dutch are going to be wealthier than Ireland is, and consequently will have more resources at their disposal

That is a fair point, I hadn't thought of that. I suppose an early enough start could help Ireland catch up a bit, but your point is quite valid.
 
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