WI: Breznev assassinated, 1/22/69

Hard to say but Breznev was pretty much the worst person to be in charge, during the problems the U.S.S,R faced in the late 60's/1970's.

His main ''skill'' was being so inert & gormless that no-one would seriously try to oust him lest a rival gain power...
 
Kosygin, economic reforms, USSR likely still around today in some form.
It's interesting if the "Chinese scenario" could be made to work om the USSR, ie an authoritarian state but with a capitalist economy. It's not what Kosygin and those around him wanted, bit those kinds of reform often take off in a direction their planers never intended.
 
It's interesting if the "Chinese scenario" could be made to work om the USSR, ie an authoritarian state but with a capitalist economy. It's not what Kosygin and those around him wanted, bit those kinds of reform often take off in a direction their planers never intended.

I don't see it. Despite Mao's best efforts, China still had large reservoirs of entrepreneurial energy and tradition that it seems Russia lacked.
 
I don't see it. Despite Mao's best efforts, China still had large reservoirs of entrepreneurial energy and tradition that it seems Russia lacked.

Not at all, the Gorbachev reforms were both botched and indecisive. Ideally the place to start reforms in the U.S.S.R would’ve been in agriculture. The U.S.S.R had plenty of growth capacity and a far better infrastructure, industry and educated population than the PRC.

If anything China had a worse starting point than Russia would've had. After all the U.S.S.R was stable and relatively well off. China had just spent the last twenty years ruled by Comrade Crazy-Pants.
 
There is no detente then. Brandt may not have a partner to assist him in his Ostpolitik.

I have doubts about economic reform in the Soviet Union. There were plenty of people willing to stop it. It can easily be blocked or just not implemented. Kosygin had plenty of enemies and could be easily removed from power. Attempts to shift emphasis from heavy industrial production to consumer goods is going to be opposed by the military.

There is a lot of dissent building up at this time. Hardliners will want someone who can quash it lest things get out of hand. That will hurt Kosygin's attempts at reform. I think it likely he gets pushed out and someone else takes over. Maybe Defense Minister Andrei Grechko? Kosygin may still have some sort of job and power, but he won't be the paramount leader.
 
Also? A Soviet leader being assassinated would have brought the knives out pretty fast. Only the fact that everybody hated and feared Stalin prevented anyone from leaking that the doctors treating him were perhaps... less than vigilant than usual.

The USA would have had to deal with a new Soviet leader casting suspicious glances at the CIA, and the nuclear threat would be on everybody's minds.

How about Brezhnev inconveniently overdosing on sleeping pills? I don't remember when he got addicted to them, but there's a possibility, and any doctor or coroner worth their salt could prove an overdose was the cause of death, even if the Soviet leadership wouldn't be too keen to publicize the fact.

Or have him get a heart attack. He had several strokes in the 1970s, and he was already 60 years old by 1966. It's not out of line for him to have gotten a fatal heart attack by 1969, when he would be 63 years old.

Then you have a more stable way for Kosygin to implement the needed reforms, which would mean less dependence by the USSR on the hard currency brought in by high oil prices in the 1970s.
 
Bit of a threadjack, but assuming you lose Brezhnev in '69 is that too early to get Gorbachev? He's a provincial party boss by then and will be appointed to Central Committee two years later OTL so obviously he's caught the eye of the inner party. Maybe some people vouch for him and get him up to senior Party positions (not GenSec yet but close) quicker?
 
Brezhnev dying prematurely would also have interesting side effects in the space program. Mishin is still the head of OKB-1 and Glushko doesn't yet have total control over the Soviet program, for good or ill. If (a big if) there is an anti-Brezhnev turn afterwards, you might even see Chelomey return from the dead, as it were, and become again a third leader in the space field, especially if Blackfox is correct and Minister Grechko becomes the General Secretary, as Chelomey was supported by him.

What that might do, since Mishin and by extension OKB-1 and their associated manufacturing plants is unlikely to be enormously more competent than IOTL and Glushko isn't going to be calling the shots after absorbing OKB-1, is basically kill Soyuz and Salyut in favor of the TKS and Almaz, at least in the longer run (in the shorter run, the Soyuz will probably still be used). In practice, this wouldn't make a huge amount of difference in the design of Soviet and Russian space stations, but it would be interesting.
 
Bit of a threadjack, but assuming you lose Brezhnev in '69 is that too early to get Gorbachev? He's a provincial party boss by then and will be appointed to Central Committee two years later OTL so obviously he's caught the eye of the inner party. Maybe some people vouch for him and get him up to senior Party positions (not GenSec yet but close) quicker?
Gorbachev rose under the patronage of Andropov and Suslov (who also helped Andropov), so he might rise faster ITTL since I don't think Kosygin will be able to check Suslov as much as Brezhnev.

What were Kosygin's looks on foreign policy? I've read contradicting sources.
 
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