WI: Brezhnev Assassinated

In 1969 Viktor Ilyin tried to assassinate Soviet Premier Leonid Brezhnev by shooting at his motorcade that was entering the Kremlin. The car that he shot at however did not contain Brezhnev, but rather 4 cosmonauts. Brezhnev had entered the Kremlin through a different gate.

What would have happened if Brezhnev was in the car that was fired upon and had been killed? How would the Soviet Union be affected and what would be its future?
 
Well, that completely depends on who becomes the next General Secretary. I'm thinking Mikhail Suslov the man you are looking for... but I might be wrong. The guy actually put together a plan for triggering a nuclear war between the USA and the PRC, by shooting off a nuclear missile from Chinese waters (by submarine of course) to hit Hawaii. They hoped to be the sole survivor of a nuclear war. For some reason, I think it would be more devastating than they thought... as in, the US would still shoot nukes off against the USSR.

But yeah, just gotta determine who becomes the SU head of state and I might be able to help you out more.
 
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The guy actually put together a plan for triggering a nuclear war between the USA and the PRC, by shooting off a nuclear missile from Chinese waters (by submarine of course) to hit Hawaii. They hoped to be the sole survivor of a nuclear war. For some reason, I think it would be more devastating than they thought... as in, the US would still shoot nukes off against the USSR

:eek: Now how would that turn out?
 
Well, that completely depends on who becomes the next General Secretary. I'm thinking Mikhail Suslov the man you are looking for... but I might be wrong. The guy actually put together a plan for triggering a nuclear war between the USA and the PRC, by shooting off a nuclear missile from Chinese waters (by submarine of course) to hit Hawaii. They hoped to be the sole survivor of a nuclear war. For some reason, I think it would be more devastating than they thought... as in, the US would still shoot nukes off against the USSR.

But yeah, just gotta determine who becomes the SU head of state and I might be able to help you out more.

And the US wouldn't have a clue due to their having observed the test launches of Soviet missiles and their knowing their flight characteristics?
 
Well, that completely depends on who becomes the next General Secretary. I'm thinking Mikhail Suslov the man you are looking for... but I might be wrong. The guy actually put together a plan for triggering a nuclear war between the USA and the PRC, by shooting off a nuclear missile from Chinese waters (by submarine of course) to hit Hawaii. They hoped to be the sole survivor of a nuclear war. For some reason, I think it would be more devastating than they thought... as in, the US would still shoot nukes off against the USSR.

But yeah, just gotta determine who becomes the SU head of state and I might be able to help you out more.

Suslov is a good candidate, but my impression of him has always been that he prefered working in the shadows. He might prefer a puppet ruler.

Kosygin might manage to take control with Brezhnev's death. This would result in a significant change in Soviet policy.

Podgorny is a possibility, although I do not know too much about him.

Pelshe is a possibility. Suslov might try to install him as a protegee/puppet, and he was a power in his own right.

Just throwing the idea out, but I suppose Mikoyan might concievably be brought out of retirement as an interim head of state.

And the US wouldn't have a clue due to their having observed the test launches of Soviet missiles and their knowing their flight characteristics?

I think the theory hinges on the Russian intelligence not knowing how much the Americans knew about the state of Chinese missiles (the US knew that the chinese did not have a missle to launch from a golf, nor a warhead for the missile, but the russians may not have known that the Americans knew that).
 
Well, if Suslov wanted to remain in the shadows, so to speak, then no doubt either Andropov or Pelshe, both his proteges, would probably be made the head of the Soviet Union... I would think Pelshe would be the better choice for Suslov, as he was higher in de jure rank than Andropov as of 1969. However, Suslov will determine policy, so look to him to figure out what happens. You probably won't get too many divergences until Suslov's death (1982), after which Pelshe will soon die as well (1983). Will Andropov take power for a year, before he too dies in 1984? Most likely. Will Chernenko take power after him? Most likely, and he'll keep it until 1985, when he dies of old age. And then Gorbachev will rise to power... all OTL stuff, though.

How to get Kosygin in there... hmmm...
 
If Pelshe had become General Secretary after Brezhnev's assassination, would Alexei Kosygin have been able to implement his economic reforms?

Would there have been anyway to avoid the years of "stagnation and decline" that the Soviet Union experienced during the Brezhnev years?
 
The only way I can see Kosygin at the top is similar to how Gorbachev did so- the more hardline sections of the party see several of their leaders die off in quick succession, leaving little contest to his ascension. Problem is, Suslov dies in 82, Pelshe in 83, and Andropov in 84, while Kosygin died in 80.

now, suslov dying earlier is quite possible, as he was rather sickly, and may be necessary for this scenario. So Brezhnev is assassinated in 1969, and Pelshe succeeds him, with Suslov acting as the power behind the throne. Andropov is sidelined by Pelshe with tacit approval from Suslov, to remove a potential rival. Kosygin takes advantage of the chaos to reestablish and strengthen himself, and Suslov/Pelshe for whatever reason do not stop him. Suslov dies in 1976 as a result of his heart trouble, (maybe earlier would be better; say around '71 or '72). Pelshe himself had lung cancer, although I cant remember when he got it, so maybe stress from the aftermath of Suslov;s death eventually leads to his own demise a year or two later. Brezhnev, one of Kosygin's main opponents is now gone, and with Suslov and his protegee's either dead or out of the way, Kosygin might rise to power in the vacumn.

Now, the problem is, especially if we use Suslov's health to get the ball rolling, we leave Kosygin with a truncated term unless we can find a way to extend his life (two or three years may be interesting, but will not have major ramifications). we are probably going to have to move up Suslov's death to make this work (more time for Kosygin and Pelshe is less established), which causes complications of it's own (for one, Pelshe's own health).

Now, maybe if somebody else was in Brezhnev's car (anybody know who the occupants were IOTL), that could give us more butterflies to work with.
 
Constantinople said:
Jesus returns to Earth and takes all the atheist communists to heaven. The world goes into a tailspin of confusion.

Haha, uh, thanks for that prediction, Constantinople... :confused::D

I really think making Suslov die that early would constitute a double POD. I hate to be a downer, but well, that's not the kind of elegance I'd prefer. Maybe the successful assassination of Brezhnev inspires a copycat attempt on the next General Secretary, pretty soon?

Let's go in a different direction, if you don't mind, a more dystopic one. Suslov was very opposed to detente. Without Brezhnev, the detente begun in the early 1970s with SALT would not have begun. Things would continue to escalate. What could that do? Well, either it would cause nuclear war, or the increasing spending causes the USSR to unwind sooner, which might lead to more favorable conditions than the alternative.
 
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Haha, uh, thanks for that prediction, Constantinople... :confused::D

I really think making Suslov die that early would constitute a double POD. I hate to be a downer, but well, that's not the kind of elegance I'd prefer. Maybe the successful assassination of Brezhnev inspires a copycat attempt on the next General Secretary, pretty soon?

Let's go in a different direction, if you don't mind, a more dystopic one. Suslov was very opposed to detente. Without Brezhnev, the detente begun in the early 1970s with SALT would not have begun. Things would continue to escalate. What could that do? Well, either it would cause nuclear war, or the increasing spending causes the USSR to unwind sooner, which might lead to more favorable conditions than the alternative.

So I take it that Alexei Kosygin would not have been anymore successful with his economic reforms under Suslov than he was under Brezhnev? Are proposed reforms to shift the emphasis in the Soviet economy from heavy industry and military production to light industry and the production of consumer goods incompatible with the hard-line communists?
 
Triton said:
So I take it that Alexei Kosygin would not have been anymore successful with his economic reforms under Suslov than he was under Brezhnev?

I doubt he would be successful. Suslov had enough power for a long enough time... why didn't he give the go ahead for economic reforms? Furthermore, the guy is a hawk who pushed for confrontation with the West, so I don't think military expenditures (and the related heavy industries) would be cut by any amount. However, Suslov was Gorbachev's patron as well as Andropov's and Pelshe's... I'd love to know whether or not Suslov judged Gorbachev's politics correctly, or just admired a young competent partymember with ambition.

Triton said:
Are proposed reforms to shift the emphasis in the Soviet economy from heavy industry and military production to light industry and the production of consumer goods incompatible with the hard-line communists?

While I can't say the reforms are incompatible, hard-line communists did show that they wanted to keep the course they had been following for decades. Too many still remember the successes of the 1950s-1960s, when emphasis on heavy industry worked really, really well, and want to keep to the same pattern. And yet, there did exist economic reformers like Kosygin, Kruschev and others throughout the Soviet Union as a minority... so, its not incompatible, but it is implausible that a minority group could gain a consensus in the Party before a few more people die off.
 
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