Is is possible for the Brazilian Empire to defeat the United Provinces of Rio De La Plata in the Cisplatine War?
Is is possible for the Brazilian Empire to defeat the United Provinces of Rio De La Plata in the Cisplatine War?
This was a war that pitted Brazil against Argentina (or, as known back then, Provincias Unidas del Río de la Plata) and Uruguayan rebels.You tell us.
First up, can you explain what the Cisplatine war was? Who fought in it? When? Why? How did it run in our timeline?
You tell us.
First up, can you explain what the Cisplatine war was? Who fought in it? When? Why? How did it run in our timeline?
I don't know what it is about Latin American threads, but they always go like this. Someone posits an incredibly obscure reference: "What if Martinez had shot Umboca in the Ortega/Nyalathotep Crisis?" As if we're all supposed to know what the hell it was all about. Then if we're lucky, there's an impenetrable little discussion like "Well, then Pickman would have probably allied with Randolph Carter" "But what about Akely." Which goes on for half a dozen posts and then dies, and the rest of us are going WTF? Or you get a situation where it just dies on the order paper.
I dunno. I'd like to think that there's potential for more. Set out some background, explain some premises, inspire people to be interested, to do some research, to discuss and push and prod.
Don't mind me. I'm just being a curmudgeon.
What? The Cisplatine War was a Brazilian victory. Uruguay wasn't re-annexed to Argentina, and effectively became a Brazilian puppet.
You tell us.
First up, can you explain what the Cisplatine war was? Who fought in it? When? Why? How did it run in our timeline?
I don't know what it is about Latin American threads, but they always go like this. Someone posits an incredibly obscure reference: "What if Martinez had shot Umboca in the Ortega/Nyalathotep Crisis?" As if we're all supposed to know what the hell it was all about. Then if we're lucky, there's an impenetrable little discussion like "Well, then Pickman would have probably allied with Randolph Carter" "But what about Akely." Which goes on for half a dozen posts and then dies, and the rest of us are going WTF? Or you get a situation where it just dies on the order paper.
I dunno. I'd like to think that there's potential for more. Set out some background, explain some premises, inspire people to be interested, to do some research, to discuss and push and prod.
Don't mind me. I'm just being a curmudgeon.
What? The Cisplatine War was a Brazilian victory. Uruguay wasn't re-annexed to Argentina, and effectively became a Brazilian puppet.
Sure. Have the Brazilian army defeat the Argentine one at the Battle of Ituzaingo and route it. With the Brazilian Navy blockading the River Plate, Argentina probably wouldn't be able to support a counter-offensive. Brazil probably can't found an invasion of the United Provinces by that time either, but any peace treaty by that ATL time would be favourable to Brazil.Is is possible for the Brazilian Empire to defeat the United Provinces of Rio De La Plata in the Cisplatine War?
Sure. Have the Brazilian army defeat the Argentine one at the Battle of Ituzaingo and route it. With the Brazilian Navy blockading the River Plate, Argentina probably wouldn't be able to support a counter-offensive. Brazil probably can't found an invasion of the United Provinces by that time either, but any peace treaty by that ATL time would be favourable to Brazil.
I don't the consequences for Brazil. As for Argentina, Rivadavia and his attempts at an unitarian constitution will fall, Dorrego is likely to be elected (as in OTL) as his successor and, with the Argentine defeat at Ituzaingo, the returning army might not coup him. He might not be able to hold into power in the long run anyway, but it could butterfly away Rosas.
The thing is, that Argentine military defeat might actually benefit Argentina, or United Provinces of the South in ATL, as it provides a chance for political stability as it removes a fair portion of the unitarian party military support. Also, while the peace treaty should be favourable to Brazil, it also ends border issues with Brazil and meddling in Uruguayan politics also becomes impossible, as there is no Uruguay. There might not be enough internal support for a jingoistic attempt to retake the Cisplatine Province (as the Uruguayans would be competitors), so in the long run, relations between the United Provinces and Brazil could actually be better than in OTL.
And no Uruguay also means the War of the Triple Alliance, as we know it, can not start - again, no meddling in Uruguayan policies. That doesn't mean Solano Lopez wouldn't, eventually, try to invade the United Provinces to get a sea port, but the United Provinces might not (and should not) be allied with Brazil in ATL.
And of course, that begs the question: without Uruguay, where are wealthy Argentines and Brazilians going to store the money they don't want their governments to know they have? Guess Paraguay would end up as both a fiscal and customs paradise in ATL
Yes, no country got what it wanted, but at least Argentina got a slightly better situation than before the begining of the war, when Uruguay was in Brazilian hands..
You tell us.
First up, can you explain what the Cisplatine war was? Who fought in it? When? Why? How did it run in our timeline?
I don't know what it is about Latin American threads, but they always go like this. Someone posits an incredibly obscure reference: "What if Martinez had shot Umboca in the Ortega/Nyalathotep Crisis?" As if we're all supposed to know what the hell it was all about. Then if we're lucky, there's an impenetrable little discussion like "Well, then Pickman would have probably allied with Randolph Carter" "But what about Akely." Which goes on for half a dozen posts and then dies, and the rest of us are going WTF? Or you get a situation where it just dies on the order paper.
I dunno. I'd like to think that there's potential for more. Set out some background, explain some premises, inspire people to be interested, to do some research, to discuss and push and prod.
Don't mind me. I'm just being a curmudgeon.
I feel the same when I read really specific American Civil War questions.
If one doesn't know the basics of the context - chances are - he or she won't be very helpful in a specific question.
But a generic reference to an unambiguous event or historical figure shouldn't shut people out. If one wants to keep up, well... there's always this.
Will this make Dom Pedro I stay as Emperor?
Will this make Dom Pedro I stay as Emperor?
maybe, but as someone pointed out earlier it might mean that the War of the Ragamuffins goes differently with Uruguay revolting, possibly leading to the Riograndense Republic and the Juliana Republic gaining independence, which probably wouldn't be good for the monarchy.
Which begs the question: Why bother?
Say, if the imperial troops had focused on defending Montevideu and Colónia after driving the Argentineans out of Cisplatine, would this problem still be that relevant? The Armada can prevent enemy troops from crossing into the province by patrolling the Uruguay River, after all.I think it depends on how Brazil wins the war. Only winning at Ituzaingó (or Passo do Rosário, as we call it) wouldn't make the conflict end as a Brazilian victory. Our army was still in bad conditions, the government finnances were in bad conditions and we were depending on mercenary troops that were revolting because they weren't being paid. It all depends on how longer could Argentina continue the fight, and even then we probably would have to face "guerrillas" in the countryside.
So, we probably only would have a longer war, creating even more difficulties to the government. I don't think the situation for Pedro I would be much improved by 1831.