I'm writing this thread as i feel like "US-pliant Brazil" is way too common a trope in AH circles. I'm aiming for a conflict in a 20th century level of tech, but i've out this in Before 1900 due to the PoD.
So, assume that Dom Pedro II's two legitimate sons survive beyond the 1840's, into adulthood. Things develop more or less like OTL until the 1880's, as the political miasma of Pedro's late reign is avoided. Slavery is abolished a few years earlier than OTL, Brazil doesn't fall into economic mismanagement at the hands of not-so-republican governments (such as those of Deodoro da Fonseca and Floriano Peixoto), the "coffee and milk" oligarchy is also avoided, and the empire trudges into the 20th century with stable economic and demographic growth as a regional powerhouse.
Eventually, a "Kaiser Wilhelm" figure ends up succeeding to the throne, with ambitions of "liberating" Latin America from the American yoke and the Monroe Doctrine and creating his own sphere of influence over the Hispanic American countries, with Brazil at the helm. Compare this to the Japanese Empire, who supported pan-Asianism as a façade for its imperialist ambitions to subjugate the Chinese and Southeast Asians.
Eventually, crises flare up between the US and the Brazilian Empire, war looms on the horizon. It eventually comes somewhere in the late 1930's or 1940's.
I posit the following questions:
Economically speaking, which side is more likely to win this war?
It seems like a Brazilian invasion of the United States is as much a pipe dream as OTL's Japanese overtures for taking the Pacific states, but, looking at Brazil's deep geography, it seems quite well suited for a defensive war against an invading force, if the evacuation of the coast can be well executed.
Depending on who wins, what will the peace terms be like? Brazil would likely be aiming for defensive buffer zones, while the US will likely seek Brazil's unconditional surrender.
What will be the interlocking alliance systems of this war within America?
While Brazil's subjugation of Latinos into its own sphere would certainly raise eyebrows, some Latin American republics could end up allied with Rio to get a one-up on their rivals. Argentina will obviously be on the US sphere, so i expect a two-front war for Brazil. How will Mexico react?
What will the war look like in military terms?
I'd wager that it could be a primarily naval war with terrestrial operations more-or-less dependant on the naval theatres, as OTL's Pacific War. Naval theatres of operation could include the Caribbean (obviously), and perhaps also the Pacific... if Brazil can cross the Magellan Strait, they'd likely fortify the bottom tip of South America to blockade Argentina, while avoiding risky sorties into the Pacific. Terrestrial theatres could include the practical entirety of South America.
Lastly, assuming that European history develops more or less like OTL, how will the European powers react to this situation?
So, assume that Dom Pedro II's two legitimate sons survive beyond the 1840's, into adulthood. Things develop more or less like OTL until the 1880's, as the political miasma of Pedro's late reign is avoided. Slavery is abolished a few years earlier than OTL, Brazil doesn't fall into economic mismanagement at the hands of not-so-republican governments (such as those of Deodoro da Fonseca and Floriano Peixoto), the "coffee and milk" oligarchy is also avoided, and the empire trudges into the 20th century with stable economic and demographic growth as a regional powerhouse.
Eventually, a "Kaiser Wilhelm" figure ends up succeeding to the throne, with ambitions of "liberating" Latin America from the American yoke and the Monroe Doctrine and creating his own sphere of influence over the Hispanic American countries, with Brazil at the helm. Compare this to the Japanese Empire, who supported pan-Asianism as a façade for its imperialist ambitions to subjugate the Chinese and Southeast Asians.
Eventually, crises flare up between the US and the Brazilian Empire, war looms on the horizon. It eventually comes somewhere in the late 1930's or 1940's.
I posit the following questions:
Economically speaking, which side is more likely to win this war?
It seems like a Brazilian invasion of the United States is as much a pipe dream as OTL's Japanese overtures for taking the Pacific states, but, looking at Brazil's deep geography, it seems quite well suited for a defensive war against an invading force, if the evacuation of the coast can be well executed.
Depending on who wins, what will the peace terms be like? Brazil would likely be aiming for defensive buffer zones, while the US will likely seek Brazil's unconditional surrender.
What will be the interlocking alliance systems of this war within America?
While Brazil's subjugation of Latinos into its own sphere would certainly raise eyebrows, some Latin American republics could end up allied with Rio to get a one-up on their rivals. Argentina will obviously be on the US sphere, so i expect a two-front war for Brazil. How will Mexico react?
What will the war look like in military terms?
I'd wager that it could be a primarily naval war with terrestrial operations more-or-less dependant on the naval theatres, as OTL's Pacific War. Naval theatres of operation could include the Caribbean (obviously), and perhaps also the Pacific... if Brazil can cross the Magellan Strait, they'd likely fortify the bottom tip of South America to blockade Argentina, while avoiding risky sorties into the Pacific. Terrestrial theatres could include the practical entirety of South America.
Lastly, assuming that European history develops more or less like OTL, how will the European powers react to this situation?