WI: Brazil without Amazonia

Could the Cerrado support a higher population ITTL? I know it can be semi-arid, but it is good cattle country, and can be used for crops like sorghum.

The soil of the Cerrado is highly acidic and marginal for crops. Until the 1970's, when EMBRAPA, with external funding(mainly Japanese), developed ways to counter that problem, settling in the Cerrado area was pretty sparse.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Could the Cerrado support a higher population ITTL? I know it can be semi-arid, but it is good cattle country, and can be used for crops like sorghum.

It takes a generation to figure out how to handle the fertilizer, find the right crops, get new breeds of cattle, and most importantly, train a deep cadre of agricultural scientific skills. The underlying technology to do this was emerging in the 1910 to 1930 time frame, so with the right POD we can see the area develop as early as the 1940's or so. And this will be the same for most tropical regions that are not deserts.
 
By the way, you guys mean Grão-Pará. Amazônia is the forest, the geographical region is the North. Similar, but not exact same.

(I HATE when people call this land "Amazônia" and not Grão-Pará. Amazônia sounds so... generic. Devoid of personality. Grão-Pará is far cooler and... victorian, so to say)

Something like the Canabagem is still likely to happen there.

Yes.

Cabanagem was caused by the local elites. What happened in the Palhaço Brig did not help matters.
Besides, the region had a local pro-independence, liberal group. What happened is that during the Independence wars, they prepared to revolt and side with Dom Pedro, but the local authorities smasehd them. Then Greenfell showed up and the local elites surrendered and were kept in charge.

Also, one more thing, without Amazonia, there goes big part of reasons to have Brazilia as capital.

Not all of them, there's still the Cerrado and Pantanal areas as a frontier. Its an ancient idea, some believe it comes back from Independence times, but there's evidence the concept existed since the colonial age with Pombal.

I suspect that the capital will still move further west. One good reason to do, would be to make a capital that's not vulnerable to maritime attacks.
Also, Rio is simply not a good place to keep your national capital forever - its full of hills.

Perhaps we will see the capital elsewhere. One site considered for a future new capital was somewhere in São João del-Rei. Not too far from Rio and Sâo Paulo, but far enough from sea attacks. Another site is current-day Formosa, which is quite close to Brasilia and a bit further east.

Another good location might be somewhere in Western Minas Gerais.
 
This is the area being talked about - Amazônia Legal. Not to be mistaken for the Amazon Forest, or the Northern Region, even through these generally overlap.

amazonialegal.jpg


Seems like a huge Grão-Pará/Portuguese wank scenario.
It would require a buff to either of these:
1. Equinoctial France
2. Colonial Portuguese forces, circa 1822
3. Cabanagem

I think the borders of the current North + Maranhão and maybe some of the Araguaia region are a more realistic border, but I can't see how Rio can't retain Mato Grosso in its control.

Another important detail is that this Alternate Grão-Pará (French, Portuguese or Independent) will be pretty important in South American geopolitics. I suspect we will see an alliance of necessity between Grão-Pará and Argentina against Brazil. European powers might want to keep the status quo to prevent Brazil from growing too strong.

Honestly, Brazil won't be TOO weaker without this area. Say, 10-20% weaker, and with far less land area to keep under control. It will tell more with time, through, as the North becomes more important from its resources and popullation. It will start getting felt in the 1890s.
 
Of course, how Brazilian (and world) history will go, its a bit harder to determine.

(if Equinoctial France is a thing, then its pretty much an alien world. I'm considering scenarios 2 and 3)

Will this butterfly the failure of the Cisplatine war, for example? Maybe Brazil scores Cisplatine, and instead Dom Pedro I leaves after Brazil loses a war against Grão-Pará.

IOTL, there was a lot of Portuguese immigration to Brazil, post-independence even. We might see more or less colonists in either country.
The Portuguese will probably focus more on their Grão-Pará colony. One advantage here is that Grão-Pará is already ruled from Lisbon, its not ruled from Rio. This might mean, focus shifts to Grão-Pará, instead of the OTL shift to the African colonies. This might actually end up aborting the Cabanagem, if the Portuguese pay more attention to Grão-Pará. The Liberal Courts are a problem.

We might get at least one or even more wars between the two countries. I believe war or no war are both likely, because both peoples are culturally not very much aggressive and warmongering. A Brazilian War of 1812, so to say. The more time passes, the more probable I find that the status quo solidifies and Grão-Pará becomes Brazil's Canada, so to say.

Anyone knows the state of the Portuguese Armed Forces, post-1822?
 
OK, but Brazil also has other resources, like coffee, sugar, woods, gold, diamonds etc. They also wouldn't have to invest in that area too, administration also costs.
Also, Brazil has other areas where they can move people, it's not so densly populated.

All of which are extensively harvested/mined in the far north of Brazil, using labour which in large part originated from population movements from the Northeast. Now, of course there's lots of other regions for agriculture in Brazil, but removing this extra zone of cash crops and most importantly, removing the rubber boom, will have noticeable effects. Will Brazil industrialize earlier because of it?
 
Of course, how Brazilian (and world) history will go, its a bit harder to determine.

(if Equinoctial France is a thing, then its pretty much an alien world. I'm considering scenarios 2 and 3)

Will this butterfly the failure of the Cisplatine war, for example? Maybe Brazil scores Cisplatine, and instead Dom Pedro I leaves after Brazil loses a war against Grão-Pará.

IOTL, there was a lot of Portuguese immigration to Brazil, post-independence even. We might see more or less colonists in either country.
The Portuguese will probably focus more on their Grão-Pará colony. One advantage here is that Grão-Pará is already ruled from Lisbon, its not ruled from Rio. This might mean, focus shifts to Grão-Pará, instead of the OTL shift to the African colonies. This might actually end up aborting the Cabanagem, if the Portuguese pay more attention to Grão-Pará. The Liberal Courts are a problem.

We might get at least one or even more wars between the two countries. I believe war or no war are both likely, because both peoples are culturally not very much aggressive and warmongering. A Brazilian War of 1812, so to say. The more time passes, the more probable I find that the status quo solidifies and Grão-Pará becomes Brazil's Canada, so to say.

Anyone knows the state of the Portuguese Armed Forces, post-1822?

Interesting ideas Miguel. Don't know how realistic are say Cabanagem suceeding?
Yes, I agree that Brazil will probably want more Uruguay if they don't have Grao Para. I agree that independent Grao Para will become Brazil's Canada, so to say. On the other hand, Grao Para will need foreign protection ( not only Portugal, but probably Britain or France ), because I think that other South American countries like Colombia, Venezuela, Peru etc. will also try to take at least some parts.
 
Tbut I can't see how Rio can't retain Mato Grosso in its control.

.

1024px-Amazonriverbasin_basemap.png


Because of importance of rivers as means of communication, before railways are built.

About inland capital of Brazil, I agree that it makes sense, especially if dangers of Portuguese/British/French Naval shelling/landing of Rio.
 
Interesting ideas Miguel. Don't know how realistic are say Cabanagem suceeding?

Hmmm...

The Cabanagem failed because the movement descended into battle between Felix Malcher's moderates and Eduardo Angelim's more radical wing.

The whole thing started as a fight against the old state elites by powerless local elites and the masses. Malcher wanted to keep the state inside the empire, Eduardo Angelim didn't.

I think, that for it to succeed, it would require the Farroupilha to be worse (perhaps accepting Argentinean support), leaving the Empire busy elsewhere while the Cabanagem gets prepared and obtains more support from the outside.

If its against just Portugal, it might be easier - possibly due to Brazilian support. Then again, it might have undivided attention from the Portuguese.
(or the Portuguese pay more attention to Grão-Pará and just abort the revolt entirely)


Yes, I agree that Brazil will probably want more Uruguay if they don't have Grao Para. I agree that independent Grao Para will become Brazil's Canada, so to say. On the other hand, Grao Para will need foreign protection ( not only Portugal, but probably Britain or France ), because I think that other South American countries like Colombia, Venezuela, Peru etc. will also try to take at least some parts.


AFAIK Britain at the time didn't do huge colonial land-grabs, I read somewhere that it was more of a 1860s and later thing.
I'm not sure anyone is gonna try taking a bite out of Grão-Pará, because these countries are unstable messes and the area is generally pretty bad for fighting. Another detail is that Grão-Pará controls the Amazon Delta, therefore it can always send men up and down the Amazon river with boats, ships, canoes, while their rivals can't do that. Same reason the Portuguese snagged the place from Spain.

France is probably the biggest threat, but if its Portuguese propriety, then I doubt the French will want to start shit with Britain's oldest ally. Considering we did have conflicts involving French Guyana and Brazilian Guyana (Amapá), we may get something happening, but it will likely remain as small as in OTL.

Because of importance of rivers as means of communication, before railways are built.

Good point, but not all these rivers are fully navigable. For example, the Tocantins river is not entirely navigable.
 
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