Based, you do have it?
EDIT: Turns out I have it lmao. Is this:
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"From the commercial point of view, Argentina and Brazil were of less relative importance for Uruguay, because the magnitude of exports to those countries in the period studied was much lower than those destined for the United States.
As can be seen in Graph 4, Uruguayan exports to Brazil underwent large fluctuations during the years prior to 1965. The year in which Brazil received the largest proportion of Uruguayan exports was 1956, representing 14.3% of the total. In 1965, however, Uruguay only exported 1% of its production to its northern neighbor.
On the other hand, exports from Uruguay to Argentina had a much smaller significance: this country received a maximum of 4% per year of Uruguayan shipments abroad, in 1949. The limited relevance of the neighbors as commercial destinations for Uruguay between 1946 and 1965: while, on average, 20% of Uruguayan exports went to the United States annually, as shown in Graph 1, only 5% went to Brazil, and 1% to Argentina, illustrated in Graph 4."
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"On the other hand, the data on direct foreign investments from Brazil and Argentina indicate that they were also substantially lower than those from the United States (Nicolau, 1968), and there was no economic aid from these countries to Uruguay during this period. Thus, Uruguay's vulnerability with respect to its neighbors, unlike what happened with the United States, did not focus in this historical period on commercial or financial relations. Consequently, Argentina and Brazil had relatively few resources with which to pressure Uruguay in the economic sphere so that it would agree to align with their preferences in this period."
(Florencia Salgueiro Rubio, 2022)
Uruguay was not dependant of Brazil economy, that is a fair description of the European situation. Europe went protectionist at the end of the 50s and the 60s and we crashed down hard.
And also "a considerable part of the population is Brazilian", where do you get that idea from? Like, people in the frontier speak portuñol yes, but they are Uruguayans lmao. Like Wikipedia (not the best source we agree) says that there are only 42,412 Brazilians in Uruguay.
The US reaction would be "based" because Nixon allowed it.
The americans expressly said that they were ok with an invasion, but an annexation was off the charts. Uruguay had been a pro-US nation thanks to the Batllist, who were in every pan-Americanist stuff the US initiated and who opossed Perón because they were among the first to know he was a fascist.
And Argentinian I spoke to and trust says that Argentina would be forced to invade because Brazilian artillery in Colonia is an existential threat to Argentina given that from there you can bomb Buenos Aires and the Argentinian navy there without the argies being capable of doing anything about it. I agree with your idea that Lanusse would prefer to not anything, but for this Argentinian friend not doing anything would be unacceptable and Lanusse would be removed.
Lanusse was under a threat of a coup under López Aunfranc at this time (because Lanusse wanted to backtrack on his desicion on calling for elections as he realized Peronist would win and Aunfrack was like: my general we can't do that, we just announced that we were going to have them). And so my friend believes that if Lanusse didn't do anything López Aunfrac would have coup him and invade Uruguay to secure at least Colonia.
I still have to get this book to check it, but is on my reading list. Apparently Lanusse was in the talks with Allende and Velasco of forming an anti-Brazilian axis or something, I can't tell precisely because I don't have it, but I plan to do in the future.
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