WI: Brazil takes Rio de La Plata

Plumber

Plumber

I remember reading a comment a while ago that Brazil could have assimilated Argentina if their invasions during the Napoleonic Wars had been more successful since Argentina was so lightly populated. How much divergence is required for this to happen, and what would be the ramifications of UltraBrazil on geopolitics (assuming a butterfly net until the independence wars are over).

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A very lazy map of ~1815

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archaeogeek

Banned
The main problem with this idea is that Brazil in 1815 had only two million inhabitants while Rio de la Plata had one; you'd have a situation more akin to Quebec, especially as OTL Brazil had very low immigration and Argentina and the Guays had almost none.
 
ByzantineCaesar

ByzantineCaesar

Even if Dom João VI takes Argentina (remember that the Portuguese court is installled at Rio de Janeiro by this time) I doubt that D. Pedro I would have been able to hold this all together. I'm currently reading the book 1822 about the Brazilian independence. Brazil was at this time bankrupt (because D. João VI took all the money from Brazil when he returned to Lisbon in 1821), had no army and no navy. 2 out of 3 Brazilians were slaves. When D. Pedro I declared the independence, in 1822, the northern provinces sided with Portugal. In fact, prior to January 1822, there were no desires of independence by the people, but the continuation of the United Kingdoms of Brazil, Portugal and Algarve. The provinces were rivals and only the Southeastern region (Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro) attended the independence at once. Look what happened to Uruguay. By 1828 it was already separated from the rest of the country.

But if you want a Brazilian/Portuguese Rio de la Plata, I think the best scenario for this to happen is in 1750, if Portugal does not sign the Treaty of Madrid and therefore continue with their tiny colony in the Rio. Maybe they could expand later to Argentina.

Well, I'm not an expert about Brazilian history (I think I wouldn't be able to give the reasons I gave if you opened the thread last month :p) and I expect that Gonzaga and other fellow Brazilians in AH.com will give better answers :).
 
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wolf_brother

Banned
Well, we end up with two very large, very powerful republics acting as dual-hegemons on the two continents of the Western Hemisphere.

EDIT: Four, possibly, great powers if Mexico pulls its act together ATL and the remaining South American nations band together to resist wanked-Brazil.
 

Fearless Leader

Donor
Perhaps the British invasions of the Rio de la Plata are delayed somewhat and occur following the relocation of the Portuguese court to Brazil? Let's say the joint Anglo-Portuguese invasion occurs in 1809ish in TTL and benefits from superior intelligence etc. leading to the relatively painless annexation of the region to Brazil as a semi-autonomous region. (Local government with John VI as the constitutional monarch). This also leads to developments in Brazil proper as John VI is forced to grant similar concessions to his own people.

This system results in the broadening of the conflict as similar movements occur in the rest of Spain's South American colonies. If the Portuguese played their cards right they could very easily come to dominate South America and "Brazil" could be a truly continental state....though it would end up more like a confederacy of constitutional monarchies in perpetual personal union.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Fearless Leader said:
Perhaps the British invasions of the Rio de la Plata are delayed somewhat and occur following the relocation of the Portuguese court to Brazil? Let's say the joint Anglo-Portuguese invasion occurs in 1809ish in TTL and benefits from superior intelligence etc. leading to the relatively painless annexation of the region to Brazil as a semi-autonomous region. (Local government with John VI as the constitutional monarch). This also leads to developments in Brazil proper as John VI is forced to grant similar concessions to his own people.

This system results in the broadening of the conflict as similar movements occur in the rest of Spain's South American colonies. If the Portuguese played their cards right they could very easily come to dominate South America and "Brazil" could be a truly continental state....though it would end up more like a confederacy of constitutional monarchies in perpetual personal union.
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The portuguese have no cards to play, Brazil was large but had less population than New Grenada and only a third of the population of South America; the Guaranis of Paraguay hated the portuguese and they were a quarter to half a million, and about half of Brazil's population was slaves, a slave-freemen ratio much much higher than what was found on the spanish side, and such an invasion and control over the area would be horribly ASB; this super Brazil wank wouuld fall apart about as soon as the revolution begin; hell it would probably fall apart by 1810 when Francisco de Miranda proclaims the independence of Colombia for the first time. And that's assuming it's even possible for it to happen, since control would require enormous naval effort: even the British couldn't take Rio de la Plata.
 

maverick

Banned
The issue of the slave population and other structural problems was also why the Brazilian army was so dependent on Mercenaries during her first 50 or so years of existence. Anyhow, Invasion in 1815 wouldn't work.

1750 would be a good date, or even in 1776, when the Portuguese managed to occupy Buenos Aires and the Banda Oriental. If Pedro de Zeballos is defeated and the Portuguese get some British help, maybe IOTL Uruguay and Buenos Aires and even part of Mesopotamia could be part of Brazil.

Here's my idea: France and Spain declare war on Britain over the Falklands issue in 1770, prompting Portugal to join Britain and the proto-American rebels to come out and be crushed while the majority of the population get behind the British Government. With British Help, Montevideo and Buenos Aires are captured by Portugal, as happened IOTL IIRC, causing the Rio de la Plata and the Parana to become Portuguese Rivers.

Cordoba and Tucuman resist the invasion nevertheless, probably the same could apply to Paraguay, but I can't be sure.
 

Gonzaga

maverick said:
1750 would be a good date, or even in 1776, when the Portuguese managed to occupy Buenos Aires and the Banda Oriental. If Pedro de Zeballos is defeated and the Portuguese get some British help, maybe IOTL Uruguay and Buenos Aires and even part of Mesopotamia could be part of Brazil.
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I'm not sure if it could be possible in this period. After all, one reason why Zeballos was so successful in his invasion IOTL was that the Portuguese army was in a poor state at the time.

Interesting enough, if the Iberian Union had lasted longer Buenos Aires could have been maybe "half" Portuguese. IIRC in 1640 circa 25% of the population of Buenos Aires was Portuguese/Brazilian, mostly people involved in the commerce of sugar and tobbaco in exchange for the Peruvian silver.
 

Petete123123

I think you have a possibility, but it should be in 1600, 1650 at the latest. Why? Because before this our Litoral(Parana and Uruguay river zones where really low populated).

What's my POD? Well, say that in the Portuguese Restoration War, they do better and capture the part I mentioned from Argentina, which is possible with naval support. Buenos Aires is really small at this time, Montevideo doesn't exist, so the only difficult city is Asunción. Suppose they conquer it, so that in the peace this part of the Viceroyalty of Peru is given to Portugal. The rest remain as part of it and with independence will become part of a more powerful Chile. Maybe we can see some people in Litoral move to Southern Buenos Aires, like the Boers creating their own country but I really don't know.

In the 18th Century, large numbers of Portuguese people will come to the American colonies, so suppose some will come here, especially to Buenos Aires, which will grow really fast as it gives access to the Matto Grosso, the Misiones and Paraguay. Here expect also that Northern Argentina will see some cash crops and also some African slaves together with Guarani ones.

At the time of independence this part of the country will have double population than OTL(remember is not the whole of Argentina). I believe that if the Brazilian independence happens as OTL, it would be too big. So suppose that it separates. Maybe from Sao Paulo state to the South it's the Kingdom of Platina and the other is the Kingdom of Brazil.

I see the Southern Kingdom more able to atract immigrants, and also more able to colonize Chaco and Patagonia, winning most of it, except for Neuquen and what's in front of the island of Chiloe.
But I see it becoming a republic by 1850/60. Then more immigrants start to come, especially like 2,5 or 3 million Italians. It would abolish Slavery by 1850, because most of it wealth would be because of cattle.

Then the destiny of the country depends on its culture and values. It can become 1st World or it can remain a 3rd World like Argentina. And the population would be something between 75 and 120 million inhabitants, putting my bet in 100 million.

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Admiral Brown

archaeogeek said:
The main problem with this idea is that Brazil in 1815 had only two million inhabitants while Rio de la Plata had one; you'd have a situation more akin to Quebec, especially as OTL Brazil had very low immigration and Argentina and the Guays had almost none.
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There were no census, so it's hard to know, but according to my figures "argentina" had 600.000 inhabitants in 1810, counting the indians in Patagonia and Chaco.

I still think, though, it's quite big to get assimilated. But maybe if Portuguese is the official guvernamental language and, when immigration comes in huge nombers (IOTL this happened after 1862, but ITTL it might start earlier), immigrants are taught Portuguese at school, it might be possible. After all, both nations would have the sama religion, and Portuguese is closer to Spanish than French is to English.

The problem is that Brazil didn't have the means to conquer and hold Argentina by force in 1810/20. But, if argentinians see that the only why to be free from Spain is with a Portuguese Monarch, they might rebel and name somebody lik Carlota Joaquina as Constitutional Queen. Maybe, later, a personal union takes place, and her heir becomes king of Argentina and Brazil.
 

Admiral Brown

maverick said:
1750 would be a good date, or even in 1776, when the Portuguese managed to occupy Buenos Aires and the Banda Oriental. If Pedro de Zeballos is defeated and the Portuguese get some British help, maybe IOTL Uruguay and Buenos Aires and even part of Mesopotamia could be part of Brazil.
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Che, maverick, ¿Ocuparon Buenos Aires? ¿La ciudad o la actual provincia? No sabía.
 

maverick

Banned
Admiral Brown said:
Che, maverick, ¿Ocuparon Buenos Aires? ¿La ciudad o la actual provincia? No sabía.
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No, creo que lo confundi con la Segunda Expedicion de Cevallos y el asunto de Colonia de Sacramento en 1776, que supuestamente le dio el prestigio a Buenos Aires para liderar las provincias contra los portugueses o algo asi.

Wikipedia sin embargo cuenta cinco intentos de tomar Buenos Aires:

1582: corsario Ingles que trata de tomar Martin Garcia pero falla;
1587: Thomas Cavendish trata de tomar la ciudad pero falla;
1658: un intento de parte de Luis XIV
Un Cuarto intento bajo un tal Aventurero de Pintis
1699: invaden unos piratas daneses, y despues de un tiempo aparece un pirata frances en el Rio de la Plata.
 

Admiral Brown

Gonzaga said:
Hmm, a French attempt during the age of Louis XIV! This one maybe could be more AH potential.
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There's a story about it in a fictional book by Mujica Laines, Misteriosa Buenos Aires, named "Toinette".

Apparently, the invasion was stopped thanks to the helps of some Dutch shipps who were trading in the port. Had it not been for these ships, the French would have disembarked, and would have faced an army formed mostly of Guaranny indians educated and trained in Jesuits missions.

Of course, if the French had attacked fast, the authorities wouldn't have had time to ask the Dutch for help and to called this Indian soldiers. The city would have fallen easily. Of course, the fall of the city doesn't imply the fall of the whole "Argentina"...
 

Admiral Brown

maverick said:
No, creo que lo confundi con la Segunda Expedicion de Cevallos y el asunto de Colonia de Sacramento en 1776, que supuestamente le dio el prestigio a Buenos Aires para liderar las provincias contra los portugueses o algo asi.

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Todo bien, me sonaba raro, nomás:)

Soldados brasileros sí marcharon por las calles de Buenos Aires... en 1852 ;)
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Admiral Brown said:
There were no census, so it's hard to know, but according to my figures "argentina" had 600.000 inhabitants in 1810, counting the indians in Patagonia and Chaco.

I still think, though, it's quite big to get assimilated. But maybe if Portuguese is the official guvernamental language and, when immigration comes in huge nombers (IOTL this happened after 1862, but ITTL it might start earlier), immigrants are taught Portuguese at school, it might be possible. After all, both nations would have the sama religion, and Portuguese is closer to Spanish than French is to English.

The problem is that Brazil didn't have the means to conquer and hold Argentina by force in 1810/20. But, if argentinians see that the only why to be free from Spain is with a Portuguese Monarch, they might rebel and name somebody lik Carlota Joaquina as Constitutional Queen. Maybe, later, a personal union takes place, and her heir becomes king of Argentina and Brazil.
Click to expand...

Add another 300.000 and you have Paraguay :p
 

Admiral Brown

Petete123123 said:
I think you have a possibility, but it should be in 1600, 1650 at the latest. Why? Because before this our Litoral(Parana and Uruguay river zones where really low populated).

What's my POD? Well, say that in the Portuguese Restoration War, they do better and capture the part I mentioned from Argentina, which is possible with naval support. Buenos Aires is really small at this time, Montevideo doesn't exist, so the only difficult city is Asunción. Suppose they conquer it, so that in the peace this part of the Viceroyalty of Peru is given to Portugal. The rest remain as part of it and with independence will become part of a more powerful Chile. Maybe we can see some people in Litoral move to Southern Buenos Aires, like the Boers creating their own country but I really don't know.

In the 18th Century, large numbers of Portuguese people will come to the American colonies, so suppose some will come here, especially to Buenos Aires, which will grow really fast as it gives access to the Matto Grosso, the Misiones and Paraguay. Here expect also that Northern Argentina will see some cash crops and also some African slaves together with Guarani ones.

At the time of independence this part of the country will have double population than OTL(remember is not the whole of Argentina). I believe that if the Brazilian independence happens as OTL, it would be too big. So suppose that it separates. Maybe from Sao Paulo state to the South it's the Kingdom of Platina and the other is the Kingdom of Brazil.

I see the Southern Kingdom more able to atract immigrants, and also more able to colonize Chaco and Patagonia, winning most of it, except for Neuquen and what's in front of the island of Chiloe.
But I see it becoming a republic by 1850/60. Then more immigrants start to come, especially like 2,5 or 3 million Italians. It would abolish Slavery by 1850, because most of it wealth would be because of cattle.

Then the destiny of the country depends on its culture and values. It can become 1st World or it can remain a 3rd World like Argentina. And the population would be something between 75 and 120 million inhabitants, putting my bet in 100 million.

View attachment 121289
Click to expand...

Not bad but, if the POD is in 1650, why are the Malvinas British? :p
 
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