WI Brasidas of Sparta and Cleon of Athens survived the battle of Amphipolis?

During the first phase of the Peloponesian War a Spartan army lead by General Brasidas (leader of the Spartan pro-war party) and an Athenian army lead by Cleon (leader of the Athenian pro-war party) clashed near Amphipolis in Macedonia... The result was a stalemate but both leaders were killed in battle... Their deaths lead to the signing of "Nikieios Eirini" (peace of Nikias) between Athens and Sparta...
WI they survived the battle and the result was still a stalemate as in OTL?
How is that changing History? Any thoughts?
 
Assuming both survive, but the battle is still a stalemate, the easy answer is that the war will continue. Probably though Cleon is recalled to Athens and Brasidas to Sparta, the lack of a victory having weakened the pro-war factions in both cities.

The key to the future of the conflict IMO is how Cleon's survival affects Athens' domestic politics. If Cleon and Alcibiades cooperate, then the pro-war faction will dominate. If they Alcibiades doesn't side with Cleon, then Athens policy is unsettled. IMO, Cleon will have to reassert his authority, but he probably manages it. Athens launches an expedition against Melos or the like (an non-subject state in the Aegean) which gives Cleon time to recoup his support.

Sparta meanwhile has to deal with the captive from Pylos and the Athenian fort on Sphacteria. She probably asks for peace, but Cleon manages to get it rejected (this where Alcibiades' loyalites are key, though). Athenian strategy is then two-fold: seek an alliance with Argos and expand forward-fortification from bases around Pylos and Sphacteria. I'd expect that the later occurs first, around 420ish. The prisoners and an eventual Athenian alliance with Argos prevents any Spartan invasion of Attica.

If Athens takes too long, Sparta sends envoys to Persia and even to Sicily trying to find more allies and essentially a navy to attempt to force Athenian subjects to revolt. I doubt Persia is receptive, since Sparta looks more desperate. Sicily is still making do with the declaration of the Congress of Gela, though the situation in Leonitine and Segesta may invite involvement as per OTL.

Athens meanwhile probably focuses on two fronts; without OTL Mantinea and the oligarchic coup at Argos, there's still an active front against an active beligerent so there's no need or pretext for the Sicilian Expedition. Most likely Cleon is looking for a battle in the central Peloponnese or a battle around Corinth. Either way, with Argive support strong and with strong Athenian support for the Argive alliance, Athens has a fair chance of scoring a victory over a Peloponnesian force in a pitched battle. If so, Sparta probably makes a separate peace, but Thebes and Corinth try to fight on. If Sparta manages a victory, it's probably ephemeral as long as Cleon remains in control of Athens. Cleon probably has an easy side besting Nicias while Alcibiades has an incentive to support aggressive schemes in order to find a path to glory.
 
I dont think Persia would involve in this phase... I believe that the Great King would wait to see who is in a better place and then choose to help... (actually flood greece with gold to make sure the war continues)...
 
I dont think Persia would involve in this phase... I believe that the Great King would wait to see who is in a better place and then choose to help... (actually flood greece with gold to make sure the war continues)...

I agree that Persia won't get involved after TTL Battle of Amphipolis, but I think Sparta's situation will only get worse or remain the same. Hence, they probably stay out entirely.
 
Isnt there a distinct possibility to attempt creating unrest to Athenian colonies and allies if they choose to help Sparta?
 
Isnt there a distinct possibility to attempt creating unrest to Athenian colonies and allies if they choose to help Sparta?

OTL Persia only began interferring after the Sicilian Expedition when many of subject-allies had already revolted. If the war remains hot and Athens has avenues of attacking Sparta itself so as to produce a real peace, then Athens probably won't go to Sicily in 415. Or at least not in enough force to suffer the calamity of 413. The allies sent significant portions of troops to Sicily (and to Melos in 417); the citizens lost in that endeavor might have shifted the local political balance.

IMO, the Aegean allies were fairly willing allies so long as Athens remained strong enough to protect them. True, Athens at times was harsh, but no more so than any other ancient imperial power. And probably for the lower classes of those states, the Empire was a good deal because it generated naval employment jobs. The later is particularly important because Persian gold was crucial to Lysander's ability in the Ionian phase of the war to outbid Athens on the pay to rowers. An Athens that's avoided the Sicilian Expedition is still quite strong enough to discipline any rebelious ally.

The problem for Athens is that without the ship stores and gold mines around Amphipolis, the war will get more expensive. This might induce Cleon to raise tribute even more (OTL he raised it around 425) but it definitely means that attempting to retake Amphipolis will remain a primary Athenian goal. This is likely to be something of an Achilles heel for Athens, but if the forces that were sent to Sicily OTL go to Amphipolis under compotent command its recapture is likely (though not guaranteed). IMO, though, a combination of Cleon and Alcibiades (or even the two working against each other) is likely to focus in the aftermath of 422 on courting the Argives in order to force a battle in the Peloponnese. This too will leave loose ends because unlike Thebes in 362 (who need primarily to destroy Sparta) Athens doesn't need to destroy Sparta but her beligerent allies Corinth and Thebes. Even if Sparta comes to terms, these states will continue to fight Athens (as they tried to do between 422 and 418).

Sparta might send an expedition to Ionia or the Aegean, but they had done so in the early years of the war with little success (mostly because they were more arrogant about liberating than the Athenians were at ruling). They might fare better if they send Brasidas, but internal politics may rear their head. Spartan policy can't be too aggressive: they've already gotten the Northern Athenian allies to rebel and they can't do much more without a fleet. And they can't invade Attica while Athens keeps the Spartan prisoners.
 
Well WI Athens uses silver from Lavrio mines in Attica to reinforce her fleet? With a bigger fleet Athens would blockade Corinth and cut her off her trade... Also if Athens manages to ally herself with Argos they could use their armies to attack Corinth... While with Persian gold sends an army against Thebes?? Sparta wouldnt dare to interfere since Athens still holds the Spartan prisoners from Pylos and Sphacteria... Could this work?
 
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