WI Braganza conspiracy is succesfull in 1483-1484?

After the official accession to the throne in 1481 King Joao II took a series of measures to curtail the overgrown power of his aristocracy and to concentrate power on himself. Immediately, the nobles started to conspire; John II did nothing but observe. Letters of complaint and pleas to intervene were exchanged between the Duke of Braganza and Queen Isabella I of Castille. In 1483, this correspondence was intercepted by royal spies. The House of Braganza was outlawed, their lands confiscated and the duke executed in Evora.
In the following year, the Duke of Viseu, his cousin and brother-in-law was summoned to the palace and stabbed to death by the king himself for suspicion of a new conspiracy. Many other people were executed, murdered or exiled to Castile including the Archbishop of Evora who was poisoned in prison.
WI the Braganzas managed to overthrow Joao II with Castillian help then? How is this altering History? Any thoughts?
 
After the official accession to the throne in 1481 King Joao II took a series of measures to curtail the overgrown power of his aristocracy and to concentrate power on himself. Immediately, the nobles started to conspire; John II did nothing but observe. Letters of complaint and pleas to intervene were exchanged between the Duke of Braganza and Queen Isabella I of Castille. In 1483, this correspondence was intercepted by royal spies. The House of Braganza was outlawed, their lands confiscated and the duke executed in Evora.
In the following year, the Duke of Viseu, his cousin and brother-in-law was summoned to the palace and stabbed to death by the king himself for suspicion of a new conspiracy. Many other people were executed, murdered or exiled to Castile including the Archbishop of Evora who was poisoned in prison.
WI the Braganzas managed to overthrow Joao II with Castillian help then? How is this altering History? Any thoughts?

If the oust of João II occurs before the death of Diogo, the 3rd Duke of Viseu, the Duke of Viseu would still be the strongest (and legitimate) claimant to the throne as a member of the house of Aviz. He would be succeded by his son Afonso.
If the coup happens later, the line of succession would pass to Diogo's brother, Manuel, the 4th Duke of Beja (and OTL's Manuel I).
The ilegitimate origin of Braganza (the founder was an illegitimate son of the founder of the house of Aviz, João I) would give them less support from the people or nobility against an Aviz claimant, in the case the Braganza decided to claim the throne.
I'm afraid Spanish support would not avoid a civil war:( in which the Braganza support would be mostly foreign.
 
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Yep. 1483 IIRC was the year of Henry Tudor's 1st attempt to return from exile and claim the crown (well, at the least to reclaim his Duchy of Lancaster).
 
The ilegitimate origin of Braganza (the founder was an illegitimate son of the founder of the house of Aviz, João I) would give them less support from the people or nobility against an Aviz claimant, in the case the Braganza decided to claim the throne.

If i am not mistaken Joao I himself was illegitimate but this didnt stopped him from claiming the Crown... The Braganzas could follow this precedent and claim the Crown after deposing Joao II...
 
If i am not mistaken Joao I himself was illegitimate but this didnt stopped him from claiming the Crown... The Braganzas could follow this precedent and claim the Crown after deposing Joao II...

It was a different situation. Joao I was supported despite his illegitimacy because the Portuguese were affraid of being dominated by Castile, since the legitimate heir was the queen Beatrice of Castile. They were wrong about a possible union, because the Castilian king already had two heirs from a first marriage, but it doesn't matter.
Also, the Master of Aviz (Joao I) received the support of the commoners, merchants and the Portuguese bourgeoisie against the nobility, who supported Beatrice or the other claimant, John, Duke of Valencia de Campos.

In the case of the Braganzas, they would be supported by the nobility, while the bourgeoisie would support the king, because he was breaking the nobles' power and again investing in the navigations. But nobles never really liked to support bastards in Portugal, as the crisis of 1385 and 1580 showed. Of course, some could accept Braganza, but probably many would prefer to declare the son of John II, prince Afonso, as the new king. He would be only 08-years-old, and so it would be easy to be influenced under a strong regency. It would be better for their purposes than an adult bastard that could be a strong king again.
 
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In the case of the Braganzas, they would be supported by the nobility, while the bourgeoisie would support the king, because he was breaking the nobles' power and again investing in the navigations.

Could this lead to a civil war in Portugal? Commoners and Bourgeoisie against Nobility and Clergy? Braganzas would emerge as popular leaders and heros while Joao II would be villified (sic)...
I dont think that the rest of European Monarchs would like that... It would have set off a dangerous precedent...
 
Could this lead to a civil war in Portugal? Commoners and Bourgeoisie against Nobility and Clergy? Braganzas would emerge as popular leaders and heros while Joao II would be villified (sic)...
I dont think that the rest of European Monarchs would like that... It would have set off a dangerous precedent...
A civil war in the Portugal of the 1480’s, would have (as explained by Gonzaga), all the commoners (including the bourgeoisie - which is very important) and the lower clergy (along with a minor part of the nobility - younger sons and nobles without peerage) supporting the House of Avis, versus, the Braganza being supported by part of the nobility and the higher clergy.
This means that without Spanish support for the Braganzas, the Aviz would win very easily (over 94% of popular support, larger recruiting pool for the respective army).

Spanish support for the Braganza would make that war last longer but it would be costly for the Spanish (and remember the Kingdom of Granada was still around, even if weakened).

Given that the Aviz could present either the infant Prince D. Afonso, like Gonzaga wisely mentions ;), or alternatively the cousins I mentioned before, as viable claimants, the Braganza claim would be weak, and many nobles would support Afonso or other Aviz who would be less violent in the upholding of the Crown's authority.
There’s also the intelligence network of D. João II (one of the best in his time and well established inside the Spanish court and the Portuguese nobility – many agents were nobles themselves*), which would be inherited by the family heir, and that would tilt even more the balance in favour of the House of Aviz.

João II or his family would be seen as the defenders of the Crown (the State) against private interests, and João II was very legalist and defender of national prestige, even if a bit too cold-hearted by every modern viewpoint, although that doesn't prevent him from still being seen today as one of the best Portuguese Kings.

Edit: Given Portugal's geographic isolation, and peripheral situation, there wouldn't be any significant repercussions in the short term.

*People like Afonso de Albuquerque. João II agents could sustain a James Bond-esque story in the late XV/early XVI centuries. :)
 
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I dont think that Granada would interfere in case of a Portuguese civil war... They were on the verge of collapse by 1480 and they were conquered 10 years later... If Isabella I wanted to grasp Portugal she could have supported openly the Braganzas... A royal marriage between Braganzas and Castille would paved the way... Were any eligible offspring to wed then?
Oh and one thing i couldnt calculate is France's reaction... I think that French King wouldnt like a strong Spain in his south borders... Could he had supported Joao II then?
 
I dont think that Granada would interfere in case of a Portuguese civil war... They were on the verge of collapse by 1480 and they were conquered 10 years later...

But Muley Hacen did invade Castile in 1480 in OTL, IIRC. The fool though that it would be a nice movement to improve his popularity in the kingdom. What he received instead was an humiliating defeat that lead to a coup d'etat by his son Boabdil, a disastrous civil war, and a long war of extermination by the combined armies of Aragon, Castile, and crusaders from half of Europe (and it still took a decade!).

If that movement takes place at a moment when Isabella and Ferdinand have their Northern and central armies bogged down in an invasion of Portugal, Granada would be opening a second front, most likely centered around what is now the northern part of the province of Malaga, which was taken by the Castilians by the 1460s. They would still face the Andalusian levees lead by the Marquis of Cadiz and the Duke of Medina-Sidonia and without artillery they would fail to pass the walls of Antequera, but with things going wrong in the Portuguese campaign and a Portuguese fleet stopping the Aragonese one to blockade all supplies to Granada the Granadines might reach the peace talks as victors and even win a pair of frontier villages.

The future effects would be greater. There would be no coup against Muley Hacen nor civil war (at least for a time, civil wars in late Granada weren't really exceptional), no Granada War at the time or shape of OTL, and Granada might even escape the vassal status to Castile while entering a period of Portuguese influence (the Portuguese tried to get Granada on their side during the War of castilian succession after all, so there is a precedent for that). Even more, Navarre did dream for a moment with an anti-Castilian alliance with Granada - as absurd as it seems today it seemed then. But being a part of an anti-Spanish ring with Portugal, Granada and France isn't really that absurd.

Oh and one thing i couldnt calculate is France's reaction... I think that French King wouldnt like a strong Spain in his south borders... Could he had supported Joao II then?

The French supported the Portuguese in 1474 and the Navarrese in 1512. If they get any excuse in the middle, they will mess again.
 
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