WI: Bourbon Poland?

The Peace of Krakow and the end of the War of the Confederation of Lublin

Austria would meet with representatives in Krakow, and would come together to the Treaty of Krakow in March of 1731. Austria would cease support of Augustus III, and would return its Polish gains from the War of Spanish Succession. In return, France would return the Duchy of Lorraine and its conquests along the Rhine, and recognize the Grand Duchy of Tuscany as a Hapsburg dominion. Austria would recognize the Spanish Bourbon's claim of Naples and Parma, and Sardinia would gain the former remains of the Duchy of Milan.

In return for Austria's support of the election of Ludwik II, the young prince was arranged to marry the Archduchess Maria-Theresa, foreshadowing the delicate statecraft the future king would have to maintain in his reign. Ludwik II would be crowned king of Poland in Krakow in June with his young bride, with the help of the french army stationed nearby to help coerce the Szlachta. However, the fighting would not end until 1734 when Russia would agree to peace after a Franco-Polish counteroffensive had reached Minsk, and a stalemate had been reached.
 
The reign of Ludwik II

Poland would be at peace with the treaty of Smolensk, in which Russia had received the territories from Polish Livonia to Mscislaw and little Russia. In return, Russia would sign an agreement to respect the territorial integrity of the commonwealth, and pledge to abstain in interfering in its domestic affairs. Ludwik II would also promise to take no punitive action against the Szlachta in the Confederation of Lublin as a sign of his respect of the nobles' rights.

Ludwik would spend the early years of his reign stabilizing the kingdom, while pursuing a foreign policy that would avoid conflict. Poland would not be included in the Bourbon family compacts, as Ludwik sought to strike a balance between his relatives and his Hapsburg in-laws, avoiding the status of client state of either. Ludwik would sign the Pragmatic sanction in 1736, assuring his father-in-law that he would recognize Maria-Anna as the legitimate heir. That December, Maria-Theresa would give birth to a son, Franciszek-Karol, the first member of the House of Hapsburg-Conti.
 
The reign of Ludwik II (continued)

Ludwik's reign was one of a delicate balancing act, straddling the chasm between his ancestral Bourbon France, and the neighboring Hapsburg domains of his wife. In the Sejm, the two major factions were the French party, lead by
Stanisław Leszczyński, the father-in-law of Louis XV. The Queen herself was considered to be the most prominent member of the rival Austrian party, and many saw her strong-willed personality and influence over her husband as a threat. Maria-Theresa became the bête noire of many for her intolerant religious opinions and absolutist views. Despite the devotion Ludwik had to his wife, he would resist being pulled into war.

The War of Austrian Succession

Charles VI's death in 1740 meant that Maria-Anna, would be the only heir. Prussia's desire to seize Silesia would trigger war, and the question of Poland's position would dominate the Sejm. Stansislaw Leszcy
ński relayed messages from Louis XV reminding Ludwik of France's support of his grandfather and their role in securing his rise to the throne. Temptation existed with the possibility of making Ludwik's newborn second son, Ludwik the future King of Bohemia or Hungary. The Queen begged Ludwik to try and influence the Szlachta to defend her sister, reminding them of Prussia's seizure of Pomerella and Poznan. Because of the clash of interests between the two parties, the Sejm was unable to declare war, and was deadlocked in neutrality.
 
The peace of Aix-la-Chapelle and the New Order in Europe

The treaty of Aix-la-Chapelle had seen the great ambitions of the powers of Europe frustrated. France had only minimal gains in the Duchy of Lorraine, and was frustrated about ceding the Border Towns. Louis XV blamed the relief expedition to Louisbourg for his weakness in negotiating posture with the Netherlands, and would bring a decisive shift in France's colonial policy by writing off New France as largely a failed endeavor. Given Dupleix's success in the capture of Madras, France had decided to focus its efforts in controlling the East Indies. Louis XV would be sore at Ludwik for his failure to assist the Allied Cause, and was attributed saying "(he)forsake his heritage for that Austrian tart." Indeed Ludwik's acquiescence to the Szlachta joining the Imperial Army as auxiliaries had proved to be decisive in Austria's bargaining posture at the end of the war.

Austria had managed to largely preserve itself by agreeing to cede Silesia. Prussia's rise as a major military power threatened Austria and France. Poland would benefit from the rise of Prussia in gaining a common enemy that would unite the internal factions and ending internal instability. With France bitter at Poland, and Austria's crumbling alliance with Britain, the two would forge an alliance of their own over concerns of Prussia's rising star. With the uncertain future of the Hapsburg-Lorraine Dynasty as Maria-Anna would die in childbirth with her fourth child, the Archduchess Carolina, Maria-Theresa was positioning her own children as the heirs of her sister.
 
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