I know this proposal has been brought up before, but what would be the effects of François Louis, Prince of Conti becoming King of Poland instead of August II? Could the Bourbons be successful in turning the elective monarchy into a hereditary centralized state in the mold of Louis XIV? How also could having Poland-Lithuania as an ally impact France in its quest for dominance? Or would it have nothing more than minimal impact in terms of butterflies.
WI: Bourbon Poland?
- Thread starter M. Adolphe Thiers
- Start date
I guess the real question is, would France's foreign policy be altered by this so that they would back up their cousins position like Spain OTL. It seems logical, since it would be a reversal of the pincer the Hapsburgs had on France. Ultimately the end goal in this TL is to avoid the partition of Poland. I can imagine that Europe would be opposed to having the Bourbons control three kingdoms when Charles II dies, so alternate Wars of Spanish and Polish Successions occur.
Any further help is much appreciated!
Any further help is much appreciated!
I guess the real question is, would France's foreign policy be altered by this so that they would back up their cousins position like Spain OTL. It seems logical, since it would be a reversal of the pincer the Hapsburgs had on France. Ultimately the end goal in this TL is to avoid the partition of Poland. I can imagine that Europe would be opposed to having the Bourbons control three kingdoms when Charles II dies, so alternate Wars of Spanish and Polish Successions occur.
Any further help is much appreciated!
Alright, if the Bourbon replaces Augustus II, we can see immediate changes. Poland-Lithuania stays out of the Great Northern War, first. A Franco-Polish alliance is possible. Sobieski himself considered one back in 1683, until he intervened to save the Hapsburgs at Vienna.
The main question of Francois's election is whether he would focus on imposing order on the chaos of the Sejm, or whether he would go down Augustus's OTL path of getting Poland involved in wars of conquest. Hopefully, Francois would turn his attention internally. He could try to gradually cut down the power of the Sejm. An end to Liberum Veto would do wonders for the Commonwealth.
POD: 1697, François Louis, Prince of Conti manages to arrive in Poland before Elector Frederick Augustus where he is crowned Franciszek I of Poland.
1697: With Franciszek I as the new King of Poland, the balance of power in Europe is threatened. The Bourbon Dynasty has inherited another kingdom, and now surrounds the Holy Roman Empire much like the pincer the Hapsburgs have had on France. With Charles II's succession in question, a sense of unease lingers over the continent. For now, Franciszek is busy with the needs of his kingdom after managing to repel the Saxon army, which is in desperate need of reform. A confederated Sejm is called, as the King tries to assert his control over the objections of the szlachta.
1700: The War of Spanish Succession breaks out as Louis XIV defends his grandson's claim to the Spanish Empire. Franciszek I assists his relative and commits Poland-Lithuania to the Franco-Spanish cause. Leopold I retaliates by assisting the szlachta in rebelling against Franciszek, with Augustus II as pretender to the throne.
1697: With Franciszek I as the new King of Poland, the balance of power in Europe is threatened. The Bourbon Dynasty has inherited another kingdom, and now surrounds the Holy Roman Empire much like the pincer the Hapsburgs have had on France. With Charles II's succession in question, a sense of unease lingers over the continent. For now, Franciszek is busy with the needs of his kingdom after managing to repel the Saxon army, which is in desperate need of reform. A confederated Sejm is called, as the King tries to assert his control over the objections of the szlachta.
1700: The War of Spanish Succession breaks out as Louis XIV defends his grandson's claim to the Spanish Empire. Franciszek I assists his relative and commits Poland-Lithuania to the Franco-Spanish cause. Leopold I retaliates by assisting the szlachta in rebelling against Franciszek, with Augustus II as pretender to the throne.
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The War of Spanish Succession
The early phase of the War does not change much than that of OTL. Prince Eugene of Savoy is successful in Italy, with the Duc de Vendôme unsuccessful in dislodging the Austrian alliance from Italy. However, because of Holy Roman Empire's commitment to the rebellion of Szlachta, the Austrians are unable to commit as many forces to the Spanish dominions. As a result, the French manage halt the Allied advance at Liège, but it is a Pyrrhic victory. The Franco-Bavarian attempt to capture Vienna continues. The Dutch refuse to move their forces out of the Low Countries. The Battle of Vigo Bay destroys the Spanish treasure Fleet.
The early phase of the War does not change much than that of OTL. Prince Eugene of Savoy is successful in Italy, with the Duc de Vendôme unsuccessful in dislodging the Austrian alliance from Italy. However, because of Holy Roman Empire's commitment to the rebellion of Szlachta, the Austrians are unable to commit as many forces to the Spanish dominions. As a result, the French manage halt the Allied advance at Liège, but it is a Pyrrhic victory. The Franco-Bavarian attempt to capture Vienna continues. The Dutch refuse to move their forces out of the Low Countries. The Battle of Vigo Bay destroys the Spanish treasure Fleet.
The Peace of Utrecht
The Battle of Blehheim would mean the end of the Franco-Bavarian advance on Austria. Bavaria would be knocked out of the war, and France would hold a defensive posture against Allied invasion. Prussia would declare its support for the Szlachta, invading Poland in the Spring of 1705. Franciszek I would be tied up for the rest of the war, attempting to expel the German invaders and quelling the revolt. In 1706, the Franco-Spanish forces would successfully siege the city of Turin, advancing to the Po river.
The war would continue on to a stalemate until the untimely death of Emperor Joseph I in 1708 from consumption. With the Treaty of Utrecht, Philip V was recognized as King of Spain after he forfeited his succession from the French throne, insuring the two kingdoms would stay separate. France keeps its conquests in the Duchy of Savoy, with the remaining territory across the Po incorporated into the Duchy of Milan. The transfer of territories occurs otherwise as in OTL with the exception of Poland. Prussia and Austria agree to cease their support of the Szlachta and Augustus II, and in exchange Prussia gains control of Pomerella and Poznan, connecting Prussia to its territories in Brandenburg. Austria gains Krakow and Ruthenia.
The Battle of Blehheim would mean the end of the Franco-Bavarian advance on Austria. Bavaria would be knocked out of the war, and France would hold a defensive posture against Allied invasion. Prussia would declare its support for the Szlachta, invading Poland in the Spring of 1705. Franciszek I would be tied up for the rest of the war, attempting to expel the German invaders and quelling the revolt. In 1706, the Franco-Spanish forces would successfully siege the city of Turin, advancing to the Po river.
The war would continue on to a stalemate until the untimely death of Emperor Joseph I in 1708 from consumption. With the Treaty of Utrecht, Philip V was recognized as King of Spain after he forfeited his succession from the French throne, insuring the two kingdoms would stay separate. France keeps its conquests in the Duchy of Savoy, with the remaining territory across the Po incorporated into the Duchy of Milan. The transfer of territories occurs otherwise as in OTL with the exception of Poland. Prussia and Austria agree to cease their support of the Szlachta and Augustus II, and in exchange Prussia gains control of Pomerella and Poznan, connecting Prussia to its territories in Brandenburg. Austria gains Krakow and Ruthenia.
After the Treaty of Utrecht is signed, Franciszek turns to deal with his rebellious nobility. With most of the rebellious Szlachta fleeing to the new possessions of Austria and Prussia, Franciszek is able to remove the liberum veto, allowing for majority rule to be established for the Sejm. Efforts to remove religious toleration however, are quickly halted to placate Prussia. Franciszek also begins to implement reforms in the civil service, with the creation of intendenci which draws from the middle classes. As the War of the Quadruple Alliance breaks out, Franciszek does not attempt to attempt another war which could threaten the delicate gains he has made in extending his authority.
He couldn't be crowned in Gdansk, it was possible only in Cracow. And this is too late for POD, the struggle between two parties begun straight in Election Sejm (after 25 June it split in two) and was decided by sheer power. BTW all officials to be present in elections supported him, so at least legally he was elected, not August.
I personally can't see the Prince of Conti capable of enacting such sweeping changes in Polish society in such a short span of time. Maybe across the whole of his reign, but not within ten years or twenty. The loss of those territories to Austria and Prussia respectively also seem to gut Poland even more when it has entered it's decline. Ruled by a foreign King who has lost core territories of the crown, what are the chances of a Confederation being called against the king to support his dethronement?
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The best what he could to do would be to stay away from any alliance or war, but I'm not sure he could. Then maybe he would make some minor changes. One problem with those unlucky reformers in OTL and various TL is that they prefers brute force and want very quick results.
Well, with Franciszek I's death, a War of Succession will be triggered, as the Szlachta will attempt to reverse the attempted increases in centralization of the state.
Thank you for correcting me, I must admit my knowledge on the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth is limited. What could be a more realistic POD? Perhaps Louis-François becomes king after Augustus III if having François become king is ASB.
He doesn't even have to die for them to contest his reforms, they can do it while he is alive. The Szlachta have the legal right to form a Confederation. In the 17th and 18th century these were often brought up against the King, and in an effect were a legal rebellion against the authority of the king. Many of these so-called Confederations often forced the Polish Kings to back down from whatever enterprises they wished to undertake.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederation_(Poland)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rokosz
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederation_(Poland)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rokosz
The War of the Lublin Confederation
Franciszek's reign has been a tumultuous one after the embarrassment of the War of Spanish Succession. In April of 1727, after Franciszek's proposal of formally introducing civil servants drawn from the middle classes outrages members of the Szlachta, who see such a move as an attempt of the King to conspire with the middle class to remove all of their Golden liberty. Franciszek's attempts of reassurance fail, and members of the Szlachta congregate at Lublin to form a confederacy against him. Franciszek asks for assistance from France in restoring order. Austria also is ready to join in to remove the struggling Bourbon from their Eastern border as a reversal of Bourbon hegemony.
Franciszek's reign has been a tumultuous one after the embarrassment of the War of Spanish Succession. In April of 1727, after Franciszek's proposal of formally introducing civil servants drawn from the middle classes outrages members of the Szlachta, who see such a move as an attempt of the King to conspire with the middle class to remove all of their Golden liberty. Franciszek's attempts of reassurance fail, and members of the Szlachta congregate at Lublin to form a confederacy against him. Franciszek asks for assistance from France in restoring order. Austria also is ready to join in to remove the struggling Bourbon from their Eastern border as a reversal of Bourbon hegemony.
The War widens as France and Spain agree to assist their cousin along with Sardinia, while Austria, Saxony, and Russia intervene on behalf of the confederation to once again place the Saxon elector on the throne. Augustus II travels to the Austrian occupied Krakow, where he is proclaimed as the new King of Poland. While France sends an army to assist Franciszek in Poland, most of the fighting would be centered in Italy and the Rhineland, showing that Louis XV is only minimally committed to preserving his cousin's position.
The French army in Poland, led by the Duc de Biron, manages to repel Saxon attacks, but as Russia invades the Franco-Polish forces struggle to keep them from crossing the Vistula. Franciszek flees from Warsaw, and takes refuge in Kalisz. The Duc de Biron in the winter of 1727 begins to raise armies on the behalf of Franciszek, promising that a successful defense of his throne will mean success in reforms in the commonwealth.
The Bourbons success in Italy and the Rhineland frustrate Austria's attempts to finish off the Polish defenders, and leaves Russia as the major force in the alliance. Lorraine would be overrun by the French in November, and the Austrians would lose ground in Italy as well.
The Bourbons success in Italy and the Rhineland frustrate Austria's attempts to finish off the Polish defenders, and leaves Russia as the major force in the alliance. Lorraine would be overrun by the French in November, and the Austrians would lose ground in Italy as well.
I didn't say, that it is ASB. To put simple he was too late and August had a strong army behind.
This depend how you define the middle class. In the Commonwealth the middle class (or equivalent) was gentry, i.e. the part of szlachta.
Ok, so a War of Polish Succession is likely to occur prior to having Francois made King?
The War of the Lublin Confederation & The Polish interregnum
1730 would bring disaster for Austria. In Italy, the Spanish would be successful in the siege of Gaeta in April, and would decisively defeat them in the battle of Bitonto a month later. In the north, the Franco-Sardinian forces would conquer Parma, and were ready to invade Tuscany. The Duc de Berwick had driven the Austrians back to Mainz, and had besieged the fortress.
For Austria, their endeavor in Poland was no longer important after being dealt with such losses, especially with being unable to secure more allies. Also, with the death of Augustus II in June, and Franciszek dying in February after slipping down the steps while leaving Mass and breaking his neck (which was heavily satirized by the Szlachta and Austrians, immortalized with the epithet Głupi Francizek or Franciszek the Stupid), both sides were without a king. Austria had announced Augustus III as the true King, while France had dubiously announced that Francizek's grandson was the true heir as Ludwik II. Austria would decide to sue for a separate peace, leaving Russia as the sole supporter of the Saxon pretender.
The War of the Lublin Confederation & The Polish interregnum
1730 would bring disaster for Austria. In Italy, the Spanish would be successful in the siege of Gaeta in April, and would decisively defeat them in the battle of Bitonto a month later. In the north, the Franco-Sardinian forces would conquer Parma, and were ready to invade Tuscany. The Duc de Berwick had driven the Austrians back to Mainz, and had besieged the fortress.
For Austria, their endeavor in Poland was no longer important after being dealt with such losses, especially with being unable to secure more allies. Also, with the death of Augustus II in June, and Franciszek dying in February after slipping down the steps while leaving Mass and breaking his neck (which was heavily satirized by the Szlachta and Austrians, immortalized with the epithet Głupi Francizek or Franciszek the Stupid), both sides were without a king. Austria had announced Augustus III as the true King, while France had dubiously announced that Francizek's grandson was the true heir as Ludwik II. Austria would decide to sue for a separate peace, leaving Russia as the sole supporter of the Saxon pretender.
Maybe not. Initially would suffice to get the first to Cracow and be able to fend off Saxon invasion. There still would be the allays in the Holly League, he would need to deal with later.