WI "both" Charles II die in 1685?

Inspired by the recent threads about the Spanish Succession War: WI Charles II of Spain had died in February of 1685, almost at the same time that Charles II of England? More than the coincidence, I was wondering how England under James II would behave in the very likely war that would happen over the inheritance of the Spanish Empire.

In 1685 the Habsburg heir to the Spanish throne would be Maria Antonia, the 14 years old daughter of the Emperor Leopold I. She only married Maximilian II, Elector of Bavaria on July 1685, so if Charles II dies in February maybe some other arrangement could be done. Also, while she would certainly be recognised in Castile, I'm not sure if the same would happen in Aragon (IIRC the Aragonese laws at the time didn't allow a regnant female).

In the French side, Philip of Anjou - the grandson of Louis XIV who would be the Bourbon claimant in 1700 - was by then only a one year baby. His eldest brother wasn't even 3 years old yet. Their mother - Duchess Maria Anna of Bavaria - was still alive, and she was the sister of Maximilian (who was engaged to Maria Antonia, the Habsburg candidate).

So, what could happen from this mess?
 
No Bourbon or patrilineal Habsburg on the Spanish throne, but the start of the Spanish Wittelsbach line.

But would the French accept that? They were under Louis XIV, he would at least demand something (Netherlands? Milan? Naples?) in exchange for accepting Maria Antonia as queen. The Habsburgs at the time were busy fighting the Ottomans (the siege of Vienna happened just two years earlier) and France had just defeated the Spanish in the War of the Reunions. England was under a Francophile king, and even if James II had decided to go against Louis XIV he had other problems to solve first (the rebellion of Monmouth). The situation would be very favourable to the French.
 
But would the French accept that? They were under Louis XIV, he would at least demand something (Netherlands? Milan? Naples?) in exchange for accepting Maria Antonia as queen. The Habsburgs at the time were busy fighting the Ottomans (the siege of Vienna happened just two years earlier) and France had just defeated the Spanish in the War of the Reunions. England was under a Francophile king, and even if James II had decided to go against Louis XIV he had other problems to solve first (the rebellion of Monmouth). The situation would be very favourable to the French.

Quite probable. The Wittelsbachs are, and for the rest of their history, are only in control of a second-tier power at this point; I think it likely that they'd allow at least the Spanish Netherlands to go to France.

Of course it all depends on things developing - an heir being born to James II could change French fortunes after a while. Also, the biggest factor here is the Austrian Habsburgs - though being tied up with the Ottomans will weaken their position.
 
In February 1685, the order of the Succession to Charles II of Spain was the following one :

1.Louis le Grand Dauphin, Dauphin of France (Born 1661, aged 24) - The eldest son of Maria Theresa of Spain and Louis XIV. Technically, he was first in line since he Maria Theresa was the eldest sister of Charles II. Yet, since his coronation would have led to a de facto Personnal Union of France and Spain, I don't think he would take the crown for himself.

2.Louis le Petit Dauphin, Duke of Burgundy (Born 1682, aged 3) - Eldest son of Louis le Grand Dauphin. Having him succeed the throne woudn't be easy as he is a baby. Plus, it would still pose the same problem of the Franco-Spanish Personnal Union as he is second in line for the French throne.

3.Philippe, Duke of Anjou (Born 1683, aged 2) - Second son of Louis le Grand Dauphin and the one who became OTL Philip V of Spain. Like his brother, he is too young. However, he is the first Bourbon who can claim the crown without leading to a Personnal Union of France and Spain (at least at the time).

4. Maria Antonia of Austria (Born 1669, aged 16) - Daughter of Margarita Theresa of Austria and Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I. She married Maximilian II of Bavaria in July 1685. In my opinion, she would be the most suited candidate : she is a Hapsburg, but married to a Wittlesbach who were generally pro-French : an agreement could thus be reached with both parties. Problem is that she died on December 24, 1692 and her only surviving son, Joseph Ferdinand, was born on October 28, 1692 and died on February 6, 1699. This would thus lead to problems later if the butterflies are not strong enough to have Joseph Ferdinand survive or for Maria to live long enough to give birth to other children.

5. Louis XIV "the Sun King" of France (Born 1638, aged 47) - Since Louis XIV's mother is Anna of Austria, the eldest sister of Philip IV (and thus Charles II's aunt), Louis XIV finds himself in the Spanish order of Succession. There's no point debating his candidacy : this would lead to a Franco-Spanish Personnal Union and besides, he has relatives that are in a better position than himself.

6. Monsieur Philip, Duke of Orléans (Born 1640, aged 45) - Louis XIV's younger brother. However, Louis wasn't very fond of his brother so I'm not sure he would do. Yet again, after Philip of Anjou, he is the second Bourbon that could get the French throne without leading to a personnal union between France and Spain.

7. Philip of Orléans (Born 1674, aged 11) - The Duke of Orléans' only surviving son.

8. Marie Louise of Orléans, Queen of Spain (Born 1662, aged 23) - The Duke of Orléans' eldest daughter and Charles II's wife. Quite Ironic if she were to find herself on the throne...

9. Anne Marie of Orléans (Born 1669, aged 16) - The Duke of Orléans' second daughter. Married to Victor Amadeus II of Savoy. Her first child wasn't born before December 1685.

10.Elisabeth Charlotte of Orléans (Born 1676, aged 9) - The Duke of Orléans' youngest daughter.

11. Leopold I, Holy Roman Emperor (Born 1640, aged 45) - The first male Hapsburg candidate, son of Maria Anna of Hapsburg (Another aunt of Charles II) and Holy Roman Emperor Ferdinand III. Like Louis XIV, his candidacy is out of the question as you would end up with a reunified Charles V Empire. Like Louis XIV, he has the peculiar particularity of being in the order of succession after one of his children (in this case, Maria Antonia of Austria)

12. Joseph, Archduke of Austria (Born 1678, aged 7) - First son of Leopold I and his heir. Probably won't be a candidate as he is young and the current heir to the Imperial throne (although he isn't yet King of the Romans, he has great chances of becoming it as it was de facto hereditary).

Archduke Charles, the OTL candidate to the Spanish throne for the Hapsburg, wasn't born before October 1685, but he should be placed after Joseph.

13. Maria Elisabeth of Hapsburg (Born 1680, aged 5) - Second daughter of Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I.

14. Maria Anna of Hapsburg (Born 1683, aged 2) - Third daughter of Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I.

15. Maria Theresa of Hapsburg (Born 1684, aged 1) - Fourth daughter of Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I.

16. Marianna of Austria, Queen Mother of Spain (Born 1634, aged 61) - Sister of Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I, wife of her uncle Philip IV of Spain and thus mother of Charles II of Spain.

Aside from telling you I find this family tree the messiest I have ever seen, I'll tell you that the death of Charles II in 1685 would lead to a problem...

There probably would be a consensus of giving the throne to Maria Antonia of Austria to avoid conflicts. Problem is that she would rule for seven years before leaving a two-months old baby who would rule for another seven years as Joseph I of Spain before dying in infancy if things go OTL... After that, we would probably end up with an ATL War of Spanish Succession in 1699.

Even if James II is King of Britain and friendly to his cousin Louis XIV, he won't wish for a situation of a Franco-Spanish Bourbon Empire that could be a nuisance to Britain. Parliament is sure to go against him if he allows this.
European powers are going to look at the matter carefully : given the order of succession, no one will want a Franco-Spanish Union, but they will also wish that Charles V's Empire isn't resurrected. However, avoiding one or the other scenario isn't easy...

And even with a favorable Maria Antonia scenario (meaning no OTL deaths for her or her son), you would have to give compensations to Louis the Grand Dauphin and France since they are technically the first in line. In one of the partitions, he (or his cadet son Philip, I'm not sure) was supposed to get Milan and Naples : that would probably do in this scenario.
 
A detailed and accurate summary and I agree with your conclusions, especially about the problem, also the Bavarian succession. Maria Antonia had three sons, of whom only Joseph Ferdinand, the youngest, survived birth, subsequently dying aged six. Not sure what either he or his mother died from, but presumably succession to Spain would have altered circumstances such that, say, particular infections might not have been caught as they were elsewhere at the time. Or there might have been more children, or children born at a different time with a different outcome. So I wouldn't say the long-term reign of the Spanish Wittelsbachs could be ruled out.

One thing I disagree over is that nos. 5 and 6 were at odds. There were strains from time to time, caused by Louis XIV's flirting (which may have gone further) with Philippe's first wife and also by the King's envy of his younger brother's popularity and military successes, but I had always understood that in essence they were close, and Louis was devastated by Philippe's death. Had Louis ever wanted to move against him the means were ready to hand, as Philippe never made the slightest effort to conceal his homosexual affairs, but his brother always shielded him rather than using this to destroy him.
 
What If Louis XIV went "for all" and made a personal union with himself as king or his son? ( maybe send his young son to Madrid to "prepare him" ) after all James II of England was probably the only king who could accepted such thing, maybe with some concessions?. Sure, that could mean another civil war in England if he does not fight the French, but they had "some" problems in Scotland so ...

Of course the Hapsburg will cry "Havok" and let loose the dogs of war, but IMHO Leopold had much less legitimacy to be accepted even in Aragon ...

ITTL the Spanish Succesion war could be very different ...
 
Domenic said:
One thing I disagree over is that nos. 5 and 6 were at odds. There were strains from time to time, caused by Louis XIV's flirting (which may have gone further) with Philippe's first wife and also by the King's envy of his younger brother's popularity and military successes, but I had always understood that in essence they were close, and Louis was devastated by Philippe's death. Had Louis ever wanted to move against him the means were ready to hand, as Philippe never made the slightest effort to conceal his homosexual affairs, but his brother always shielded him rather than using this to destroy him.

For my part, I had read that Louis XIV was jealous of his brother Philip.
In a campaign, Louis XIV had Philip removed from his army command because Philip was so skilled Louis felt he was going to be overshadowed by his brother.
Philip also had a magnificient cascade-like fontaine built in one of his castles that Louis XIV tried to copy at Versailles but was never able to.

I probably assumed too much taking only these facts into account. After all, I have limited knowledge on the relationship between Louis XIV and Philip.
 
1685 is before this long comedy of errors starring Charles II's 2nd wife Mariana of Neuburg (who would marry him in 1689) basically destroyed any sympathy for the Austrian candidate(s) in the Crown of Castile. So any French candidate would have a lot less support.
 
Tocomocho said:
1685 is before this long comedy of errors starring Charles II's 2nd wife Mariana of Neuburg (who would marry him in 1689) basically destroyed any sympathy for the Austrian candidate(s) in the Crown of Castile. So any French candidate would have a lot less support.

True. However, if you look at the order of succession, the ten first candidates who could claim the throne are French except for Maria Antonia of Hapsburg (who is number 4). Thus, avoiding a French candidate on the Spanish throne will be hard as they can claim to have more legitimacy than any other candidate.

You can't really satisfy everyone with this succession : sure no one wants a Bourbon Empire (Franco-Spanish Union) except the French but no one also wants a resurrected Charles V Empire (Austro-Spanish Union) except the Habsburg.

The best compromise is with Maria Antonia since she is a Hapsburg married to a Bavarian Wittelsbach (who were generally pro-French). After that, you can have a partition of the lands of the Spanish Empire like they had planned OTL, with Milan and Naples going to the French and the Spanish Netherlands to the Hapsburg for example.
 
True. However, if you look at the order of succession, the ten first candidates who could claim the throne are French except for Maria Antonia of Hapsburg (who is number 4). Thus, avoiding a French candidate on the Spanish throne will be hard as they can claim to have more legitimacy than any other candidate.

Not in the point of view of the Spanish. According to them, when the mother of the Grand Dauphin married Louis XIV it was included in the marriage contract an article stating that the would be renouncing all her claims and her descendents claims to the throne. What happened in 1700 is that Charles II decided that he wouldn't care about this, and so he gave all the Spanish Empire in his last will to Philip of Anjou.
 
As I understand it the renunciation was conditional on her dowry being paid. Which, Spain being broke, it wasn't.
 
Gonzaga said:
Not in the point of view of the Spanish. According to them, when the mother of the Grand Dauphin married Louis XIV it was included in the marriage contract an article stating that the would be renouncing all her claims and her descendents claims to the throne. What happened in 1700 is that Charles II decided that he wouldn't care about this, and so he gave all the Spanish Empire in his last will to Philip of Anjou.

Even if Maria Theresa did renounce her rights, that wouldn't change the order of succession much... Maria Antonia would become number 1 and the nine princes after her would be French, with Louis XIV being the first french candidate and then you would have the Grand Dauphin and his children.

The reason is simple : Margarita Theresa and Maria Theresa were the only children of Philip IV of Spain to leave issue.
Philip IV's brothers didn't left any issue. So the crown would pass to Philip IV's sisters' line and the eldest of them was Anna of Austria, wife of Louis XIII of France and mother to Louis XIV.

Thus, in a way, Charles II did take Maria Theresa's renounciation into account... Problem is that she was married to her double cousin [1] who hadn't renounced the Spanish throne officially.

[1] Louis XIV's father, Louis XIII, was the brother of Maria Theresa's mother, Elisabeth of Bourbon.
As for Louis XIV's mother, Anna of Austria, she was the sister of Maria Theresa's father, Philip IV of Spain.
 
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