Title says it all. Either Stanley doesn't throw his weight behind Tudor, or Richard III survives the battle and escapes. Point being, Richard isn't dead and Tudor isn't king. What happens next?
WI: Bosworth Wasn't Decisive
- Thread starter Kellan Sullivan
- Start date
There's probably another battle to settle it within a few days
I do have a current fascination with Tudor England... May as well drop my unknowledgeable two-cents in. Most obviously the war would continue, no?
The outcome of the next battle might actually be in Henry's considering the loss Richard has just suffered. This might bring Stanley over to the Tudors beforehand.
Do we know where Richard would go and what resources he can expect?
Do we know where Richard would go and what resources he can expect?
Yeah, definitely subsequent battles. When/where/what depends in part on details about what did/did not happen that need clarifying. Does Norfolk still go down? Does Northumberland still remain on the ridge? The longer they remain, on paper, the better for Richard as his northern affrays would have time, but then he didn't seem to want to wait for them, so maybe he felt that more time meant more people turning coat.
Either way, it's hard to imagine an indecisive Bosworth once he committed to that charge, so I'm thinking we need to have that unhappen. Could be as simple as scouts not noticing Tudor's group spectating, or could be unnecessary if Northumberland comes unstuck or Norfolk doesn't go down...but then it's hard to figure out how Henry makes out deep in enemy territory with a largely foreign/mercenary army that was already outnumbered at Bosworth. He was moving away from what support he had the further in he got, so without the Stanley's coming over I'm not sure where he gets numbers to compensate for incoming royals forces.
Also, how does Stanley indefinitely suspend the issue, and why? If he's going to turn, there's no better moment than he chose in otl. If he forgoes that I'd have to assume he's not going to, unless maybe Tudor offers some seriously hefty compensation.
In large part the difficulty is Richard's temperament, which seems pretty significantly geared towards decision on the day. Maybe he's injured? Because by all accounts he was insisting upon immediacy even when some advisors were pointing out that his largest supporters were not at hand. (Even after Norfolk's fall the numbers were still close and he had many options, and though always aggressive he had in Scotland et al shown a pretty measured command.)
Most still felt confident in their numbers and leadership, but it could have been played safer to turn advantage into overwhelming advantage. I debate whether he forced the issue because he'd been trying to come to grips with Tudor so long he worried he'd disappear again, or whether as mentioned earlier he suspected significant changes in loyalty with more time. Again the Stanley's loom large, and unless you count Northumberland among them, even in our TL there weren't any major defections otherwise among his supporters. People bent to reality, but we don't even here of people claiming to have been itching to switch, just fait accomplis and/or Blore Heath.
Either way, it's hard to imagine an indecisive Bosworth once he committed to that charge, so I'm thinking we need to have that unhappen. Could be as simple as scouts not noticing Tudor's group spectating, or could be unnecessary if Northumberland comes unstuck or Norfolk doesn't go down...but then it's hard to figure out how Henry makes out deep in enemy territory with a largely foreign/mercenary army that was already outnumbered at Bosworth. He was moving away from what support he had the further in he got, so without the Stanley's coming over I'm not sure where he gets numbers to compensate for incoming royals forces.
Also, how does Stanley indefinitely suspend the issue, and why? If he's going to turn, there's no better moment than he chose in otl. If he forgoes that I'd have to assume he's not going to, unless maybe Tudor offers some seriously hefty compensation.
In large part the difficulty is Richard's temperament, which seems pretty significantly geared towards decision on the day. Maybe he's injured? Because by all accounts he was insisting upon immediacy even when some advisors were pointing out that his largest supporters were not at hand. (Even after Norfolk's fall the numbers were still close and he had many options, and though always aggressive he had in Scotland et al shown a pretty measured command.)
Most still felt confident in their numbers and leadership, but it could have been played safer to turn advantage into overwhelming advantage. I debate whether he forced the issue because he'd been trying to come to grips with Tudor so long he worried he'd disappear again, or whether as mentioned earlier he suspected significant changes in loyalty with more time. Again the Stanley's loom large, and unless you count Northumberland among them, even in our TL there weren't any major defections otherwise among his supporters. People bent to reality, but we don't even here of people claiming to have been itching to switch, just fait accomplis and/or Blore Heath.
ISTR that Tudor needed a decisive victory and he needed it quickly, so, if Bosworth isn't decisive, what effect might that have on his army size. Richard's is possibly getting bigger once his Northerners get there? And if Stanley doesn't jump in on Tudor's side (he only did so when he saw that the battle was swinging in his stepson's favour; however Richard held his [Stanley] own son "hostage" to ensure loyalty, so it could go either way), might he do what one of the captains says of the Spanish in Hornblower "with all luck they'll sit out the war and sail forth to congratulate the winners". So, if he still jumps in on Tudor's side and Richard lives, he's screwed, because then he took up arms against his anointed king.
I'm picking up on four possible key points here:
As to where Richard goes, he's still king. Albeit a king with a challenger, but a king all the same. After the battle, he's going to know that he needs to beat Tudor. He might be slightly paranoid about people turning coat, might not. The question is more what does Tudor do? He was banking on a decisive victory, and in a time of religious fervour/attributing things to God's will, might there not be some that start thinking, "okay, maybe Dickon is the rightful king? Why else would God have withheld victory from us?"
I'm picking up on four possible key points here:
- Norfolk doesn't fall (it was Howard and not de Mowbray by this point, right?)
- Stanley doesn't jump in on the Tudor side
- Northumberland (I'm assuming a Percy, which is weird since they were pro-Lancastrians weren't they?) not getting bogged down
- Richard not sounding that final charge
As to where Richard goes, he's still king. Albeit a king with a challenger, but a king all the same. After the battle, he's going to know that he needs to beat Tudor. He might be slightly paranoid about people turning coat, might not. The question is more what does Tudor do? He was banking on a decisive victory, and in a time of religious fervour/attributing things to God's will, might there not be some that start thinking, "okay, maybe Dickon is the rightful king? Why else would God have withheld victory from us?"
Aye, the Mowbrays went extinct with the death of Richard of Shrewsbury's child bride Anne in 1481 (her father, the 4th Duke, had died in 1476). Howard (a grandson of the first Mowbray duke) was given the title by Richard.
They had been Lancastrian- the 2nd and 3rd Earls died fighting as Lancastrians at First Saint Albans and Towton respectively (and some of the 3rd Earl's younger brothers died in other engagements). They'd been attainted somewhere along the line and Edward IV gave the Earldom to Warwick's brother John Neville, but eventually deprived Neville of the title and restored it to the Percies in the form of the 4th Earl (John Neville subsequently died fighting with his brother against Edward IV at Barnet).
As a result of his ancestry the 4th Earl was accused of holding Lancastrian sympathies and deliberately refraining from committing to the battle at Bosworth (though I think terrain or his position made it hard for him to engage), and his murder whilst collecting taxes in the North 1489 was possibly motivated by the perception that he'd betrayed Richard.
Northumberland was also considered to have resented Richard - as Richard in the north had taken patronage, power and influence that would normally have fallen to the Percy family - perhaps another reason for him to not commit - he certainly reaped some rewards from Henry VII for his inaction.
Richard (during his reign as king) was also manoeuvring to set up his nephew Lincoln in the north, which would have increased any discontent held by Percy (who may have thought that with Richard in the south as king he'd be able to retake the Percy family's pre-eminent place in the north).
Though of course this begs the question of whether Richard was losing due to Norfolk's death, or whether Norfolk got killed because his army was losing.
Had he a lot of choice? Richard had already taken his son as a hostage, so clearly didn't trust him. So Stanley's future would be very uncertain if Richard won.
People swapped sides quite a bit in the WotRs. Frex, the Stanleys had always been pretty consistent Yorkists until 1485, and indeed the House of York would probably never have gained the Crown in the first place had not Lord Grey of Ruthin switched sides at the Battle of Northampton.
Percy's father had been killed fighting for Lancaster, and Percy himself (then a teenager) spent some years in the Tower before being restored to his Earldom by Edward IV. He remained carefully neutral in 1470/1. It's anybody's guess whether he abstained at Bosworth deliberately or just hesitated too long due to inexperience. Bosworth was his first battle.
Again, depends on whether it was a matter of choice. With Norfolk dead and his army clearly losing, he may have seen it as his only hope. Bosworth is so poorly documented that all can be done is make educated guesses.
When it comes to Stanley's you hit the nail on the head later on, we simply don't have the sources to know for sure. The whole story about Richard III threatening Lord Strange (aka Stanley's son) and him being a hostage may well have been an ex post facto justification to excuse the fact that Strange was on the "wrong" side at Bosworth.
It's somewhat hard to see an indecisive Bosworth; battles in the WotRs tended to be fairly decisive for one side or the other in general. The closest that could be imagined is Richard withdrawing in good order after failing to defeat Henry, but withdrawing in good order from a battle without routing was really hard, and beyond most medieval armies. Such a result probably counts as a "win" for Henry, but may prolong the campaign. More plausible is something along the lines of "Richard loses but gets away," which would count a a pretty clear "win" for Tudor.
The only way I see the Stanleys not joining in is if they are delayed (or possibly "delayed"); they're unlikely to side with Richard (they had a previous history of legal disputes with him from his days as Gloucester). If Henry manages to keep his army intact through its first engagement with Richard, they certainly come over to Henry.
Northumberland is a bit complicated; his family was Lancastrian, but his Lancastrian dad died when he was still a kid, so it's not like he had a long history of personal Lancastrianism behind him. Edward IV had restored many of his old family titles as part of his policy of reconciliation to shore up his regime, so he had personal reasons to be loyal to York (certainly Henry seems to have imprisoned him briefly after Bosworth, along with the rest of Richard's supporters, and restored him mainly as part of Henry's policy of reconciliation to shore up his regime). It remains unclear whether his failure to participate was due to betrayal or incompetence.
It's also worth viewing Bosworth as less a York vs. Lancaster thing and more as a Yorkist civil war where one of the Yorkist factions had chosen to side with a Lancastrian candidate for legitimacy. The Lancastrian cause had been effectively destroyed in 1471 with the death of the remaining male line descendants of John of Gaunt; a few diehards (mostly old supporters of Warwick who had nowhere else to go) had continued fighting, but essentially the Yorkists had won. Henry had an opening only really because the Richard III's usurpation had alienated quite a few old-school Yorkists (notably the Woodvilles), who (once the Princes in the Tower vanished) only really supported Henry Tudor as the least implausible figurehead to oppose Richard. It's a key reason why Henry had previously declared his intention to marry Elizabeth of York, so as to reassure those Yorkists that he was explicitly targeting Richard, and not Yorkists in general. If Henry can fight Richard successfully, that makes him an even more plausible candidate for people opposed to Richard III (of whom there were plenty; Richard wasn't very good at the PR side of things).
So Henry Tudor still wins, but if Richard III is still alive, that changes up the early part of his reign significantly. A genuine Richard III makes a much more plausible pretender than imposters like Perkin Warbeck or Lambert Simnel, and would certainly have a much easier time attracting meaningful support, both in England and abroad.
The only way I see the Stanleys not joining in is if they are delayed (or possibly "delayed"); they're unlikely to side with Richard (they had a previous history of legal disputes with him from his days as Gloucester). If Henry manages to keep his army intact through its first engagement with Richard, they certainly come over to Henry.
Northumberland is a bit complicated; his family was Lancastrian, but his Lancastrian dad died when he was still a kid, so it's not like he had a long history of personal Lancastrianism behind him. Edward IV had restored many of his old family titles as part of his policy of reconciliation to shore up his regime, so he had personal reasons to be loyal to York (certainly Henry seems to have imprisoned him briefly after Bosworth, along with the rest of Richard's supporters, and restored him mainly as part of Henry's policy of reconciliation to shore up his regime). It remains unclear whether his failure to participate was due to betrayal or incompetence.
It's also worth viewing Bosworth as less a York vs. Lancaster thing and more as a Yorkist civil war where one of the Yorkist factions had chosen to side with a Lancastrian candidate for legitimacy. The Lancastrian cause had been effectively destroyed in 1471 with the death of the remaining male line descendants of John of Gaunt; a few diehards (mostly old supporters of Warwick who had nowhere else to go) had continued fighting, but essentially the Yorkists had won. Henry had an opening only really because the Richard III's usurpation had alienated quite a few old-school Yorkists (notably the Woodvilles), who (once the Princes in the Tower vanished) only really supported Henry Tudor as the least implausible figurehead to oppose Richard. It's a key reason why Henry had previously declared his intention to marry Elizabeth of York, so as to reassure those Yorkists that he was explicitly targeting Richard, and not Yorkists in general. If Henry can fight Richard successfully, that makes him an even more plausible candidate for people opposed to Richard III (of whom there were plenty; Richard wasn't very good at the PR side of things).
So Henry Tudor still wins, but if Richard III is still alive, that changes up the early part of his reign significantly. A genuine Richard III makes a much more plausible pretender than imposters like Perkin Warbeck or Lambert Simnel, and would certainly have a much easier time attracting meaningful support, both in England and abroad.
I see three possibilities.
* Stanley commits sooner. Richard does not make his final charge. Facing greater numbers, Richard withdraws eastward and sends out messengers to seek reinforcements. The next battle probably decides the war.
* Richard is not unhorsed and cuts his way free with Brackenbury and some of his other closest followers. Richard probably flees abroad, likely to Burgundy. Henry declares himself king, but his throne remains at risk.
* Stanley delays committing. After seeing Richard personally kill his standard bearer, William Brandon and unhorse John Cheney, Henry Tudor flees. Stanley rushes to the aid of the victors and tells his troops to support Richard. Henry flees and unless Pembroke and/or Oxford also escape, he probably passes into obscurity. If Henry still has an experienced commander, he continues to plot a return. Either way, Richard goes through with his planned marriage to Joanna of Portugal, while Elizabeth of York marries the Duke of Beja.
Out of curiosity, Richard in exile is clearly a greater threat than Warbeck ever was, but how likely is Richard to have support from any other monarchs (besides Burgundy) whilst in exile proper? And can Henry try to dislodge him? Or is this a wasted effort?
Burgundy, Scotland, and France all gave at least some support to Simnel and/or Warbeck at some point (though obviously not at the same time), they would be likely to consider doing similar for Richard if the situation called for it. The Habsburg/Trastamara/Valois feud is picking up steam, and Henry is going to have to pick a side at some point, as OTL, and as OTL, that's going to tempt the one he sides against to try something. After all, exiled princes returning from the continent to successfully claim the throne had happened repeatedly in the last century, so it's not too much of a stretch to see it as a potentially worthwhile investment.
Whether they'll actually go so far as to fund an expedition (rather than offer him shelter and use him as a bargaining chip) is an open question, but he's certainly a more potent threat than Simnel and Warbeck, both of whom gave Henry diplomatic headaches OTL.
Henry will certainly try to use diplomatic/economic leverage to keep Richard from getting any support (isolating Warbeck was a major focus of his early diplomatic efforts, which played a major role in why Warbeck kept drifting from court to court as Henry managed to convince previous sponsors that supporting the pretender was unwise).
Assuming Richard III loses but survives he's got a fairly good chance of return. Considering the fractious nature of the 15th century English nobility Henry VII can't help pissing off some magnates if only by giving them less attaindered land then they feel they deserve. So all Richard III needs to have a chance is a ship though some mercenaries would be nice. That's not to say it would succeed but he was an able commander with a deep well of self belief that would be battered by defeat at Bosworth but not destroyed.
Not an unfamiliar pattern for the Yorkists. Get to Burgundy; wait for the Lancastrian(-ish) candidate to cock up; land in the North; take London; execute the Lancastrian. Remember, Ireland was Yorkist, Scotland trusted Richard more than they did Henry ap Meredith Tidder, the North was Richard's almost to a man, and Harri ap Maredudd was very resentful of the fact he hadn't half the Welsh support he'd counted on.
Lewis 11th was dead and damned (and much of this was all his doing), and Anne as regent for Charles had a civil war of her own to deal with at home.
Lewis 11th was dead and damned (and much of this was all his doing), and Anne as regent for Charles had a civil war of her own to deal with at home.
Could said foreign court decide what better way to piss Henry off than to marry Richard off to one of their own (say he winds up in Vienna as Perkin Warbeck did and ends up married either to Archduchess Kunigunde or maybe somebody else related to the Emperor Maximilian; or in Spain and ends up married to Isabel of Aragon)? Especially if there are half Trastamara or half Habsburg Yorkies running around? Or might a king with no crown be considered a poor man's bargain?
Archduchess Kunigunde would have been too important to marry off to an exile from a minor kingdom, even if that exile was a former king. Richard's exile probably quashes any chance of the Joanna of Portugal match. The daughter or sister of a Yorkist noble would be the most likely match for Richard while in exile.