WI: Bolsheviks take power in the Baltics in 1918-20?

As most here probably know, during the years 1918-20 there was fighting in the Baltics between the Bolsheviks and anti-Bolshevik forces. There's a pamphlet that describes this period from a pro-Soviet POV: https://archive.org/details/SovietRussiaAndTheBalticRepublics

My question is, assuming the Bolsheviks did manage to succeed and Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia become constituent republics of the Soviet Union, what long term consequences is this likely to have on the USSR itself and politics/economics in the region?

I ask since I'm doing a simulation of the world of 1919 and the Bolshevik players have managed to establish soviet governments in the region.
 
It would not change basic dynamics in Europe at the time as the Soviet Union was feared and hated in our time line even though they failed to reconquer the Baltics, Poland and Finland. It would just be slightly scarier and perhaps Germany is allowed to have a bigger army, navy and air force but they would secretly rearm and cheat those limitations anyway especially after the Nazis come to power which might happen earlier in this timeline however I don't think so.
 
The Bolsheviks had some initial popularity in Latvia and Estonia (less so in Lithuania) in 1918, but their attempts to actually govern those regions throughout 1918-1919 produced...less than stellar results. They could buy some additional popularity to the extent they're able to present themselves as destroying the Baltic German hegemony and ending the Freikorps encroachment into the Baltics, but it's only a matter of time before they alienate a large chunk of the population.

Tensions between the USSR and the Western states might seriously rise. Not because of the Sovietization of the Baltic states themselves, but because this scenario puts the USSR right next to the Klapeida Mandate, occupied and administered by the French. And dangerously close to Germany, too.
 
As most here probably know, during the years 1918-20 there was fighting in the Baltics between the Bolsheviks and anti-Bolshevik forces. There's a pamphlet that describes this period from a pro-Soviet POV: https://archive.org/details/SovietRussiaAndTheBalticRepublics

My question is, assuming the Bolsheviks did manage to succeed and Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia become constituent republics of the Soviet Union, what long term consequences is this likely to have on the USSR itself and politics/economics in the region?

I ask since I'm doing a simulation of the world of 1919 and the Bolshevik players have managed to establish soviet governments in the region.

You can expect the Poles "liberating" all of Lithuania from the Soviets post ATL "Battle of Warsaw" and annexing it to Poland with the blessing of a big part of lithuanian society.
 
The problem with the Soviets taking the Baltic states in 1918-1920 is that this would require the Bolsheviks to dedicate significantly more forces than they could realistically spare. In 1919, when their advance into the Baltics was the farthest, the Bolsheviks were also arguably the closest to defeat, being pressured from north, south and east at once by White forces. The Baltics were a peripheral front from start to finish, Lenin and his followers generally seemed to believe that the Baltics can be mostly ignored until they get rid of Poland and Ukraine first, at which point they would fall quickly.

Poland not falling is what ultimately prevented that from taking place.

During 1918-1919, it might be possible for Latvia to fall completely, but that's just going to mean that Lithuania and Lithuanian-allied German soldiers will likely take over the south of the country up to the Daugava (they had the ability to do just that, but actively avoided incursions into Latvian territory during the Wars of Independence), much like the Estonians swept into Latvia from north.
 

yourworstnightmare

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The Lativan reds were a part of the red army that were actively trying to bring the revolution to Latvia, right? And I think I heard somewhere that at one point there was a three way civil war in Latvia between Germans, the new Latvian republic (backed by Lithuania and Estonia) and Reds (both Latvians and Russians).
 
The Lativan reds were a part of the red army that were actively trying to bring the revolution to Latvia, right? And I think I heard somewhere that at one point there was a three way civil war in Latvia between Germans, the new Latvian republic (backed by Lithuania and Estonia) and Reds (both Latvians and Russians).

Yeah, Latvia was one of the hearts of the Bolshevik revolution. Though it was actually the Latvian refugees in Petrograd and Moscow who were the strongest supporters among the Latvians.

If the Reds can secure Latvia and Estonia without back-and-forth fighting demolishing the regions, I think both of the northern Baltic states could have interesting effects on the overall trajectory of the Soviet Union, since we could end up with more Latvians and Estonians in the Party. Of course, the ordinary people would get the same raw deal as the rest of the Soviet peoples, in all likelihood. Lithuania's Bolsheviks were especially good at alienating the population, so Lithuania likely ends up a restive border region if the Soviets hold it. That could have interesting effects in and of itself.

fasquardon
 
You can expect the Poles "liberating" all of Lithuania from the Soviets post ATL "Battle of Warsaw" and annexing it to Poland with the blessing of a big part of lithuanian society.
Besides affecting Poland, I'd also wonder how Soviet control over the Baltics would affect Finland.
 
Besides affecting Poland, I'd also wonder how Soviet control over the Baltics would affect Finland.

I think a good way to start would be to sketch out how, exactly, the Soviets managed to take the Baltics ITTL, how the events in the area differed from the OTL. Like @Augenis comments above, this would require a significant input from the Bolsheviks at a time when they were facing several other challenges as well.

IOTL, the Finnish Whites assisted the Estonians significantly by sending volunteers and weapons. ITTL, this would be the first thing that changes in Finland: either those volunteers are not sent, or then they are not victorious but many of them are lost as dead, injured or captured. This already creates butterflies for the developments in Finland c. 1920.

For another thing, Estonia especially going red (and Latvia and Lithuania as well) would mean that Finland will receive more refugees from south of the Gulf of Finland, and the Finnish government (and people) would feel themselves more threatened. This all might throw the Finnish political developments out of whack: the transition to a republican constitution might be delayed, and if Mannerheim manages to convince the parties for his intervention against Petrograd that was stillborn IOTL, things might take a turn for the worse. This intervention would require Allied support as well, but here the Bolshevik success in the Baltics might well go a long way to convince British and French politicians about the need for an intervention, too. The rehabilitation of the moderate left in Finland might well be delayed, too, if there is a stronger than OTL red scare in Finland in 1919-20. Trying to keep down the moderate left would then probably give comparative boost for the underground far left in Finland. At this moment, though, the far left was broken and inside Finland they would not be able to be anything more than a nuisance for several years. The Finnish refugee far left in Petrograd, the leadership of the civil war Finnish Reds, would be a more significant faction.

1920 was when Finland finally signed its peace treaty with the Soviet state IOTL. What happens ITTL? What does the red success in the Baltics mean for the Finno-Soviet negotiations in 1920? Even if Mannerheim can't have his intervention, creating a peace deal between Helsinki and Petrograd would be thornier than IOTL. It would most likely not be negotiated in Tartu, Estonia like in our history, due to Estonia going red. Maybe Stockholm would be the venue, Sweden acting as neutral ground? Quite likely the Soviet side would feel itself stronger and thus be ready to be more insistent with its demands. Finland is not necessarily getting even the OTL borders, which as it was were a disappointment to many nationalists. If a peace treaty is agreed upon in 1920, will Finland even be left without Petsamo ITTL? If the Finland that comes out of this is smaller than IOTL, many nationalist-minded people will be angry and this would breed revanchism and anti-Communist feelings over and above what happened IOTL.

Then of course there is the possibility that in their hubris the Bolsheviks do not agree to ending the state of war with Finland but go as far as to plan another campaign against Finland. I don't know how realistic a Bolshevik attack against Finland in 1919-1920 would be (Finland would not be a top priority, anyway) but if it does happen, it would be a big reset for Finnish domestic matters. Such an attack, even if unsuccessful for the Soviet side, might well derail Finnish internal developments entirely. It might even be that the fledgling Finnish democracy would not support such a shock: the Finland that comes out of it might be a nationalistic, right-wing authoritarian nation that only pays lip service to democratic forms of government.
 
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