WI: Bobby Kennedy doesn't run in '68

Here's a tantalizing WI that I don't believe has really been addressed at the board...But What If RFK decides to stick with his January 1968 promise of not running for President. Does Eugene McCarthy blaze ahead during the primaries and recieve enough delegate votes to clinch the nomination? Or does Humphrey run harder and is still able to get the nod? How does the GOP race shape up? And how would a more Senate focused Bobby act during the election year and the following? please discuss:D
 
Here's a tantalizing WI that I don't believe has really been addressed at the board...But What If RFK decides to stick with his January 1968 promise of not running for President. Does Eugene McCarthy blaze ahead during the primaries and recieve enough delegate votes to clinch the nomination? Or does Humphrey run harder and is still able to get the nod? How does the GOP race shape up? And how would a more Senate focused Bobby act during the election year and the following? please discuss:D

the Democrats would never ever let Eugene run, Humphrey is most likely to run (and lose) if Bobby lives, he's a shoe-in in 76, and i think EMK would not be as much of a mess, and could become President in the 90's
 
Well, I know Eugene had a pretty large following especially with the Anti-War faction of the Party and without Bobby entering the race, his support would undoubtibly grow more support to be the party favorite once LBJ decides not to accept his party's nomination in '68
 
So how would President Kennedy handle the Iranian hostage crisis and would he be able to beat Reagan in 1980?
 
McCarthy does marginally better than he did IOTL.

Cronkite goes on the air, and LBJ finally makes up his mind and withdraws.

HHH wins at the convention.

HHH loses to Nixon.


I mean you can change them a little if you want, but the political calculus alters in a meaningful way if RFK wins the nomination as oft discussed or if Reagan's mostly overlooked these days '68 run succeeds (as it might well have).

Actually if RFK wins, that increases Reagan's chances for winning the nomination.

But still no RFK run does not meaningfully change the final outcome of Nixon becoming President.

The interesting part is the in-between. No RFK run probably means no RFK MLK speech (assuming MLK is still killed). No RFK run means he lives to fight another day, but badly damaged because he missed his moment. No RFK run means if he wants the nomination in '72 he'll have it.
 
Is it possible without a Kennedy run in '68 that McCarthy is able to pick up some commanding delegate leads in California,Nebraska and maybe Indiana? Eugene also had the lead in Popular vote in the primaries so could Hubert Humphrey actually step on his own feet and mess up big time to wear the old Party Bosses conside endorsing McCarthy instead.?
 

Ibn Warraq

Banned
Humphrey still wins and then loses to Nixon.

The two question that follow would be "would Bobby run in 1972" and "if he runs in 72, can he win".
 
Is it possible without a Kennedy run in '68 that McCarthy is able to pick up some commanding delegate leads in California,Nebraska and maybe Indiana? Eugene also had the lead in Popular vote in the primaries so could Hubert Humphrey actually step on his own feet and mess up big time to wear the old Party Bosses conside endorsing McCarthy instead.?

McCarthy was unacceptable to the party leadership (and quite unsuitable to be President, in all honesty). If they moved against Humphrey they would draft somebody instead of supporting McCarthy.

No RFK means McCarthy (assuming he doesn't implode) wins California and New York but not Indiana, and does a little better overall. It's not enough.

Now if you want to talk party leaders, IOTL Mayor Daley pushed LBJ and the others pushed Teddy Kennedy which Daley agreed with once realizing no one would back his LBJ push. EMK turned them down, and Humphrey won. If EMK had accepted it's probable he would have received the nomination.


In the ATL if Humphrey comes into the convention without the magic number (around 1300, if I recall correctly) because McCarthy did well himself and in keeping unpledged delegates unpledged than the party leaders will confer.

It's almost certain that Daley will push LBJ, but back down and accept his close friend RFK if the others push him. Would they? They went for EMK IOTL faced with McCarthy & Humphrey, I see no reason they'd discount RFK.

Would RFK agree to a draft? I'd wager probably not, but at least in these circumstances McCarthy would be willing to throw his delegates to RFK if it looked clear that RFK could win and McCarthy could not (IOTL McCarthy grew to hate RFK with insane passion).

So, amusingly, by not running RFK could become President :). (Odds are Humphrey wins and than loses to Nixon though.)

The two question that follow would be "would Bobby run in 1972" and "if he runs in 72, can he win".

If he thought he could win. If he runs, he thinks he can win so… yes.
 
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