WI: Bob Casey '96

In 1995, outgoing Democratic Pennsylvania Governor Bob Casey, Sr., considered challenging President Bill Clinton in the Democratic presidential primaries in 1996. However, he decided against it, because of bad health. But what if his health got better, and he ran for president? I'm sure that he would have been trounced in the primaries by President Clinton, though he would have been a serious challenger and would probably have won a few of the smaller, more moderate primaries. What effect, if any, would this primary challenge have on the presidential election of 1996, and politics afterward?
 
Casey had cancer, so you'd need an earlier POD. He has no chance of defeating Clinton in a primary with the possible exception of Pennsylvania, and it would just be an embarrassment to himself and the Democratic Party. Casey wanted to challenge Clinton not on ideology, but on abortion. This tiff dates back to when Casey refused to endorse Clinton in '92 due to his abortion stance, and was denied a chance to speak at the DNC. Clinton says in his memoirs that he wanted to allow Casey a slot anyways but was persuaded by DNCC Ron Brown not to do it due to the lack of endorsement. We all know that Clinton could've just ordered Brown to give Casey the slot nonetheless, but he didn't. Nonetheless, it would reopen a gaping ideological chasm in the party on abortion- not a challenge to Clinton's renomination and probably not a challenge to his re-election. If the GOP nominates someone with a pulse such as Gov. Carroll Campbell (R-SC), Phil Gramm, or anyone besides Dole, then the GOP can pry this open and wreak mayhem on family values questions.
 
Here's a question: What if Casey runs to Clinton's right on abortion, but to his left on NAFTA? There was a discernible rough patch on Clinton's left because of his choice to push NAFTA and not to pursue economic stimulus, resulting in labor sitting out of the '94 elections and undercutting the Democratic vote further.

Casey was fairly pro-labor IIRC (One has to be if they're a Pennsylvania Democrat) so what are the chances he shores up the union vote against Clinton in the primary?
 
That's not going to work out- the DLC had/have won the ideological battles pretty conclusively, if electoral results are anything to go by. Casey was not going to get union votes- Big Labor is not going to oppose an incumbent President in a primary challenge even if they like the challenger. There is precedent for that.
 

pnyckqx

Banned
Casey had cancer, so you'd need an earlier POD. He has no chance of defeating Clinton in a primary with the possible exception of Pennsylvania, and it would just be an embarrassment to himself and the Democratic Party. Casey wanted to challenge Clinton not on ideology, but on abortion. This tiff dates back to when Casey refused to endorse Clinton in '92 due to his abortion stance, and was denied a chance to speak at the DNC. Clinton says in his memoirs that he wanted to allow Casey a slot anyways but was persuaded by DNCC Ron Brown not to do it due to the lack of endorsement. We all know that Clinton could've just ordered Brown to give Casey the slot nonetheless, but he didn't. Nonetheless, it would reopen a gaping ideological chasm in the party on abortion- not a challenge to Clinton's renomination and probably not a challenge to his re-election. If the GOP nominates someone with a pulse such as Gov. Carroll Campbell (R-SC), Phil Gramm, or anyone besides Dole, then the GOP can pry this open and wreak mayhem on family values questions.
Bob Casey had a genetic disease called Amyloidosis, which appears to affect those of Greek ancestry.

He had exactly zero chance against Clinton for the simple reason that the economy was good. Although Casey was for the most part a social conservative, he was considered to be a fiscal Socialist. The economic record of Pennsylvania was dismal under his two terms.

There were just too many areas where Casey was vulnerable in a campaign against Clinton. Although Casey was just as ruthless as Clinton, maybe moreso, he didn't have the 'teflon' personna that the Clintons managed to cultivate.


 

pnyckqx

Banned
Oops... I made a mistake on his disease but was unaware that he was such a leftist economically.
Not too many people were aware of that. The only reason that I am is because Pennsylvania is my home state.

Casey was a good social conservative, and a conservative Roman Catholic. It is my contention that he paid too much attention to the marxist-based drivel put out by the American Bishops, to the point where it affected his economic thinking. He certainly tried to destroy the insurance industry here.

His campaign for reelection was interesting. The Republicans ran Barbara Hafer, but she had a challenge from an unknown Johnstown housewife named Peg Luksik. Luksik spent only about $40,000 in her campaign, and almost beat Hafer. Had it not been for the endorsement and money of Elsie Hillman, Hafer would have dropped out of the race. The only reason that Hillman kept Hafer in the race was because Hafer is pro-choice. Luksik, like Casey, is a conservative Roman Catholic. Their difference was in economic views. She's quite a bit like Sarah Palin in her appeal.

Hafer later became a Democrat, and Luksik went on to run as a member of the Constitution Party against Tom Ridge. She managed 13% of the vote. Not bad for a third party run.


 
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