What if Mary Tudor, Queen of England, gave birth to a living daughter before passing away? How would this affect European politics, English government, English religion, and who would she be most likely to marry?
In practice, she might be ignored by people who want "their Elizabeth" over the spawn of Spain.
Is that daughter the Tudor heiress, or is Elizabeth said heiress (in law)?
In practice, she might be ignored by people who want "their Elizabeth" over the spawn of Spain.
This is an interesting concept. I've seen several TLs (I even thought of making one myself) of what would happen if Mary had a son. However, I never thought how a daughter born to her can impact history. So good job on the start.
totally agree with this. The English people would definitely want Protestant adult Elizabeth over a Catholic infant daughter of a queen they hated and a rival foreign king. The most plausible scenario is the daughter (let's call her Catherine after Mary's mother) does not get the throne after her mother dies which goes to Elizabeth instead. Catherine goes to Spain to live with her father who brainwashes her to hate Elizabethian England and for her to believe she is the rightful heir. When Catherine comes of age (meaning early 20s) she greatly assisted by her father launch an attack on England to get the throne for her (knowing Philip this probably starts with an ultimatum which Elizabeth rejects). The attack most likely fails with Elizabeth still being queen and Philip signing a treaty to respect this fact. Now in TTL, Elizabeth most likely marries and at least tries to have children because she doesn't want her sisters descendants to take her English throne. If Elizabeth still dies without an heir, then Catherine gets the throne. In this scenario, it will be likely for her to marry James VI so there will still be a union with Scotland and the Stuarts. This is just one of the many possible outcomes of this scenario.
The law is on Catherine's side. (I would think Mary would name her daughter after her beloved mother.) The third Act of Succession said that it would Prince Edward and his heirs of the body, then any children that Henry VIII had by Catherine Parr, then Lady Mary and her heirs of the body, then Lady Elizabeth and her heirs of the body, then the decendents of Mary Tudor, Queen of France and Duchess of Suffolk. (Margaret Tudor, Queen of Scots and her decendents were exluded from the succession)
I think Isabella (or Elizabeth) might be the first choice for the Princess-Infanta. As the name of his mother it would be the obvious choice for King Philip's eldest daughter. It also further honored and recalled the memory of two beloved fore-bearers - Elizabeth of York, the matriarch of the Tudors, whose marriage reunited the Red and White Roses, and Isabella the Catholic, the crusading warrior queen of Castille of illustrious memory. Philip was presented as an "Englishman come home" when he and Mary married, with official pageants and publish family trees making much of his superior Lancastrian lineage...the Infanta-Princess would be the embodiment of this dynastic reunion, one even greater to that of York-Lancaster in Tudor. That said, Mary was almost hysterical in her faith, so a daughter named Mary for both her mother and for the Virgini would also be fitting.
Let's consider two scenarios:
1) It was determined that Queen Mary was pregnant (or "pregnant", as we know) in September 1554. Say then the Princess-Infanta is born in c.March 1555. (If she's born later we might get a princess named Joanna for the dead Queen of Castille, who died that April). Philip would probably spend even more time in England, attempting desperately to father a son. The Princess would be 3 1/2 years old at the time of her ascension. Her bastard aunt, the Lady Elizabeth, would be tucked away deep in the English countryside under guard while plenty of Flemish and Spanish nobles milled around London and the Privy Council on King Philip's behalf. I would imagine King Philip would be amenable to a Regency Council ruling in her name, perhaps admitting some of his representatives, while he (or de facto his representatives) supervised her person, education and household. Her marriage would no doubt be central to the negotiations at Cateau-Cambrensis, and no doubt offer England the best chance to hold on to something on the continent (besides the promised inheritance of the Low Countries). François-Hercule, the youngest French prince, was born in March 1555, but I think his older brother the Duc d'Orléans would be the preferable match. Orléans could proceed to England to be educated in English ways; the English retaining Calais but foregoing all other titles and pretensions in France, including all the debts the French crown had toward the English crown. Mary of Scots would have no right or pretense to the English arms. The Lady Elizabeth would most likely fade back into the background, though Philip was well disposed towards her and might allow her a position in her niece's household, as well as the moneys and lands rightly hers. She would most likely be hassled until she consented to marry (perhaps Alessandro Farnese?) assuring a pro-Habsburg succession.
2) The Queen gives birth in 1558 and dies shortly thereafter. Popular revolt and sentiment lend itself to Elizabeth becoming Queen. Elizabeth comes to London and becomes Queen "by the will of the people", citing election or divine ordination or something. The Princess is in her power. What happens next I can't divine - does she hand the girl over to Philip? does she hold onto her as a possible heir? Do the French and Spanish even treat with her as Queen, or do they unite to topple her off the throne?
Why would he spend more time in England? As far as we know, him agreeing to marry Mary was merely doing his "dynastic" duty. He definitely wasn't attracted to her and there were reports that he privately despised her and tried to spend as little time with her as possible. Mary, on the other hand, was enamored with him, at one point in 1558 bewailing rumors that he had a mistress. Once she has a daughter, he'll definitely remain in England a bit longer, but you have to remember he also has his own domains, and his own father's abdication would necessitate his return to Spain anyways. I could see him being adamant to have a son by Mary if he had no son at all, but at this point Don Carlos is alive. The birth of the little Princess-Infanta secures the succession in England for the Habsburg. Later on she could be married to one of her Austrian cousins to continue the line there. It wouldn't be the direct Philippine line, of course, but she would still carry her father and mother's blood and thus still represent that Lancastrian lineage.
As for Elizabeth, she can be tucked back at Hatfield. I am not sure how the English would feel about their queen being protected by foreigners, so Philip might have to compromise by mixing the guards with Englishmen. As far as Regency Council, it's something, unfortunately, he's going to have to swallow. There is no way the English will accept him as such. But he could serve in a titular capacity with a council headed fully with Englishmen to handle day to day business, perhaps with Norfolk as President. I like the idea of the Cateau-Cambrésis and the match with the future Alençon. It'd be enough to calm fears of Spain dominating England and can aways be problem Elizabeth, however, would probably be kept at a safe distance from the young queen. If she's bullied into marrying, perhaps it's Emmanuel Philibert, the Duke of Savoy? He was a popular atch for her in the 1550s but Mary was very staunchly against it. The Duchess of Lorraine even came over to visit with Queen Mary to see the match set up, but it never happened. If she's dead, it'd be much easier to arrange. In her mid-20s, she'd be a better match than Marguerite, the Duchess of Berry and Savoy's OTL wife. They married at Cateau-Cambrésis and she was 38!
The 1555 birth is the much better option. By 1558 Mary was clearly dying. Even though she did suffer another phantom pregnancy, Philip marked privately that he hadn't slept with her in months, so it was absolutely impossible. The fact there was some credence to her first phantom pregnancy means that Philip preformed his marriage duties, at least initially.
I think the birth of a Princess-Infanta would give him hope that Mary really is fertile, and thus there's a possibility of scoring a son from her. Don Carlos was constantly sick, feverish, perhaps epileptic, and later on Philip held off from marrying another Portuguese infanta because of the madness present in that family; another son would definitely be welcome, especially one that would undisputed inherit England and the Netherlands. A daughter is as much a pawn as she is a liability, as Henry VIII well knew. There's no ideal candidate for her to marry, for one. So I think he'd hang in there until it became clear she wasn't going to give him another one.
I agree, and I also think he wouldn't want to. With the succession guaranteed, there's no need for him to stay in England - he's needed on the continent far more desperately. I like the Alençon idea too, basically neutralizing Scotland and relegating it and it's politics to the backburner. Naturally all hell would break loose once his elder brothers died and he became the heir and then King of France. France, England and the Netherlands united with Alsace-Lorraine and Scotland as satellites
I wonder if Philip would take steps to prevent that from ever happening, although I have no idea how (besides marrying the Princess elsewhere). I guess a natural interval for breaking off the Princess' betrothal would be Don Carlos' death, leaving her as the heiress to Spain and the Spanish empire...no way are they accepting a French king-consort.
I think the Savoy match was out by this time. Elizabeth was adamantly against it, as was Mary, and (I believe) Savoy, who Philip wanted to resign his remaining possessions in return for the marriage. Marrying Margaret restored Savoy to his duchy (reality) while marrying the bastard Elizabeth brought him nothing save a place in the line of succession (possibility). I think the Duchess of Lorraine's visit was intended as a cover for a plan to semi-kidnap Elizabeth and force her to marry, but Elizabeth was warned and Mary's upset at her being made heir (as part of the marriage negotiations) put an end to the project. Talk about lucky escape!
And yes. She had womanly troubles her whole life, complicated periods and womb pains and such.