WI: Blair's New Labour causes a second "Gang of Four" in the mid-2000s

For those not in the know, in the 1970s the British Labour Party moved further and further to the left, to the point where a "Gang of Four", four senior moderate Labour politicians split off from Labour to create the centrist Social Democratic Party, which then proceeded to form an electoral alliance and eventually merge with the already existing, and on life support, centrist Liberal Party to form the modern Liberal Democrats, who up until the rise of the Scottish National Party in 2015 were the third biggest political party in the UK.

What if Tony Blair's New Labour ends up shifting Labour so much to the Centre (not being helped by his pro-Iraq War attitude and soft austerity policies) that four very Left-wing MPs, Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Dianne Abbot and, most prominently, Dennis Skinner decide to become the new "Gang of Four" and split off from Labour to create a new, genuinely Left-wing political party?

What are the likeliest scenarios to follow such a move? Does the new Left-wing party merge with the Greens to create a stronger and more viable party that does just as well if not better than the LibDems (and possibly siphon some of the Left-wing vote that Blair absolutely ignored)? Do they peter out and Labour remains perpetually in the Centre without Corbyn to pull it back to the Left? Do they end up forcing Blair to turn Labour back towards the left in an attempt to stop the exodus of centre-left and left-wing voters to the new party? Or does something else happen instead?
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
I'm pretty far from an expert on this, but I don't think Skinner is a possibility. He would seem to push all right buttons as a rebel but he doesn't seem to be the type to leave the Labour Party. The others, maybe, but not Skinner.
As to how a breakaway group would fare, I think they wouldn't be feted like the SDP were in the early 80s. The media would be against them from the start and while they might thrive fighting back, voters wouldn't flock to them in the face of that.
Just my humble opinions!
 
Firstly, the members of the Socialist Campaign Group were pretty strong Labour loyalists, despite their many disagreements with the party line.

Secondly, generally speaking people don't break away from a party that is in power or doing well. The original Gang of Four has to be understood as taking place in a time when Labour was in the political wilderness and the anti-Trade Union right-wing of the party blaming the Labour left for putting Labour in that situation.

Thirdly, the original Gang of Four failed, and badly, which kind of puts a damper on others who would try and do what they did.

Barring major changes, such as Britain embracing proportional representation, I don't see this happening.
 
I agree that Skinner would be unlikely too defect. Not only was he too loyal to Labour, but he was actually not on bad terms with the leadership either. He was one of the people Blair used to get the left on side, along with Chris Mullin, and he would actually go on to endorse David Miliband in 2010.

A more interesting defector would be Ken Livingstone. He has a record of independence as well as a considerable public profile. He is the sort of guy you could build a populist insurgency off of. There are also probably other MPs who held similar profiles as the other MPs you suggest at the time who were more likely to defect.

To be honest, I don't think a left wing breakaway would meet with the same success as the right wing one in the 1980s. There were over thirty MPs that defected to the SDP, the Gang of Four were such a big deal because they were fairly popular household names (except from Rodgers). If Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell left Labour, the reaction of the average voter would be 'who?'

That said, they could probably make some inroads and force Labour to tack to the left if they play their cards right. A merger with the Greens wouldn't happen, but an alliance would be beneficial to both sides, though it might be jeaopardised If they go down the route of Respect and try to ally themselves with SWP types though, which doesn't bring much electoral gain,if any.

With a charismatic leader and good organisation I could see them winning a few seats (probably less than ten) in inner cities, particularly in those places where the MP defected to them. They might also push the Greens over the line in Brighton Pavilion too. There would also be scope for them to expand in the next few elections as well, following the financial crisis.

I think there is certainly room for a new left wing party to build themselves up into a credible third or fourth party in the UK from the beginning of the Iraq War till now. I considered exploring this idea with a stronger Respect Party, but I found that the main difficulties are keeping the radical left united and free from association with those who might potentially discredit their cause, such as some Muslims who hold some pretty socially conservative values.
 
If you want a 00s Labour split, the POD would by Blair losing the Iraq War vote or having so many defections that he needs to go to the Tories for support. That would have pretty large butterflies extending beyond UK politics. In UK politics, it would be re-aligning.

And a POD for that would be Brown coming out against the war, though I don't think Brown was ever close to doing so.

Another way to get a Labour split would be no second Gulf War. The POD could be Gore winning the US presidential election. Instead you get a personality clash between Blair and Brown similar to the one that had just occurred in Canada between Chretien and Martin. The Canadian clash seriously damaged the Canadian Liberal Party, so you could do something with translating that into the UK.
 
What if Tony Blair's New Labour ends up shifting Labour so much to the Centre (not being helped by his pro-Iraq War attitude and soft austerity policies) that four very Left-wing MPs, Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Dianne Abbot and, most prominently, Dennis Skinner decide to become the new "Gang of Four" and split off from Labour to create a new, genuinely Left-wing political party?
This isn't happening, all of those people are Labour till they die, no matter how often they rebelled. However, a Livingstone-Galloway party is plausible.
Does the new Left-wing party merge with the Greens to create a stronger and more viable party that does just as well if not better than the LibDems (and possibly siphon some of the Left-wing vote that Blair absolutely ignored)?
This isn't happening either. The Greens are interested in grassroots democracy, social justice and the environment. In 2004, none of the Labour leftists we're talking about were interested in these things. They were more interested in nationalising various things and building railways across the countryside. This new left-wing party is going to align much more closely with various Trot parties or even the Kennedy-led Lib Dems. However, there would of course be Gang/Green swing voters, e.g. George Monbiot.

And then there's the even bigger question of how the hell to beat the Lib Dems. Even if Charlie Kennedy dies in 2001 or whatever, and even if they back the Iraq War to the hilt, they still have a much stronger organisational base, whereas the left-wing Gang have a few thousand oddballs and malcontents. We're talking about a slightly more successful Socialist Labour Party, unless Galloway forms the alliances he did IOTL. Maybe, at the absolute outside, they win one of Leicester South, Brent East or Hodge Hill.
Do they peter out and Labour remains perpetually in the Centre without Corbyn to pull it back to the Left?
They peter out.

However, there are always new people, and the idea that a left-wing Gang means that there will be no lefties in Labour for a decade seems slightly spurious when Tony Blair was first elected two years after the SDP split off.
 
This isn't happening either. The Greens are interested in grassroots democracy, social justice and the environment. In 2004, none of the Labour leftists we're talking about were interested in these things. They were more interested in nationalising various things and building railways across the countryside. This new left-wing party is going to align much more closely with various Trot parties or even the Kennedy-led Lib Dems. However, there would of course be Gang/Green swing voters, e.g. George Monbiot.

Meacher could appeal to them perhaps? When I was planning a Respect wank timeline I had him instead of Galloway become the leading figure (before being replaced by Salma Yaqoob) which lead to a strong alliance with the Greens.
 
Meacher could appeal to them perhaps? When I was planning a Respect wank timeline I had him instead of Galloway become the leading figure (before being replaced by Salma Yaqoob) which lead to a strong alliance with the Greens.
I really strongly doubt that Yaqoob would join a Meacher-led Respect.
 
This isn't happening, all of those people are Labour till they die, no matter how often they rebelled. However, a Livingstone-Galloway party is plausible.

This isn't happening either. The Greens are interested in grassroots democracy, social justice and the environment. In 2004, none of the Labour leftists we're talking about were interested in these things. They were more interested in nationalising various things and building railways across the countryside. This new left-wing party is going to align much more closely with various Trot parties or even the Kennedy-led Lib Dems. However, there would of course be Gang/Green swing voters, e.g. George Monbiot.
That's possible, but Respect did want an alliance with the Greens in OTL. If this new party performs well enough in the polls, it would be very difficult for the Greens to pass up. Public ownership isn't something they would have too much of a problem with, particularly if it included more worker control, which the Labour left didn't have too much trouble with either. So long as this new party is vaguely environmental, and doesnt toy with ideas like reopening the coal mines, there is certainly enough common ground for an alliance.
 
What if Tony Blair's New Labour ends up shifting Labour so much to the Centre (not being helped by his pro-Iraq War attitude and soft austerity policies) that four very Left-wing MPs, Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Dianne Abbot and, most prominently, Dennis Skinner decide to become the new "Gang of Four" and split off from Labour to create a new, genuinely Left-wing political party?

Corbyn ain't going nowhere - he recounts his discussions with Tony Benn on how New Labour was bullshit but he obviously couldn't quit the party, and Benn said "You know what, comrade, we're just in it, aren't we?". Not a chance he's jumping ship. He was on the fringes of the party from his election til 2015 (arguably til 2016 really) and he didn't consider going anywhere.

Also I doubt he'd have kept his seat in Islington North. He would now, but at the time he was just some bloke who was always rebelling.
 
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