WI: Blair resigns in 2002 - 2005

So I have been reading Jonathan Powell's memoir/political analysis "The New Machiavelli" essentially a modern version of "The Prince" which uses accounts from the Blair's time as Prime Minister, when Powell was chief of staff.

In the book, he said that as early as June 2002, Blair said he was nearing "the begging of the end", and was considering resigning at some point before the 2005 election.

Obviously he stayed on (mostly due to Iraq) but what if he had resigned some time before 2005, maybe even before Iraq started hotting up. Would there be a leadership election (rather then Brown's coronation)? What would happen with Iraq and the Special Relationship?

How would they fair without "The Man" in the 2005 General Election?

Could Howard choose to stay on due to strong seat gains?

Could the Lib Dems become even more of a political presence?
 
I don't see why Blair would have left that early anyway, because he was (still) a very young politician with a lot more to gain. Anyway, I would expect Brown to take over from Blair, though see his majority seriously cut to around 40 given his inherent unpopularity compared to Blair.

In the long run, 2010 would be a majority for the Conservatives.
 
Brown would probs have been crowned as PM and Labour Leader, would have left long before the worst of the damage was done to new Labour and to the relationship between Brown and Blair.

Labour would be united under brown and would probs gain a bigger majority under Brown in 05
 

Thande

Donor
I once did a brief TL about Blair resigning in 2004 after his heart attack scare. Maybe I should resurrect it.
 

Thande

Donor
I will make a few changes. On reflection, Brown retaining Alan Milburn was both implausible and actually counterproductive for how I saw the immediate future of the TL going. Also I'm not sure if would take that long for Ohio to recount its votes--I was thinking of the weeks of struggle over Florida in 2000, but that might have been more "legally challenging whether to have a recount" than actually having a recount...can anyone clarify matters?
 
There was a lot of speculation that Blair might have resigned if Labour had lost the 2004 Hartlepool by-election to the Lib Dems. .
 
There was a lot of speculation that Blair might have resigned if Labour had lost the 2004 Hartlepool by-election to the Lib Dems. .
Why did Blair go in the end? I'd always thought it was as per agreement with Brown, but my new Politics teacher claimed the party forced him out because of his support for Israel in the 2006 Lebanon war.
 
Apparently he just got sick of the job. He felt that just over ten years in office was enough for him. He was under immense pressure from certain factions of the Party to leave before the next general election on the promise he gave that he wouldn't complete a full third term.

2007 seemed a good year, I guess. That, or he magically foresaw the impeding economic doom facing Brown and left on the first chopper out of Saigon.
 
Interesting topic. I wonder how Blair would be seen today, if he'd gone say... in 2004/5? I think that's the most likely time for any departure to take place.

I do believe we still get a Coronation Brown, given how dificult it is to gain traction within Labour for any leadership bid. Iraq isn't as bigger issue at the time as well, so that probably helps Brown.

The 05 election depends very much on when exactly Brown takes over. If it's just before the 2005 election, then he'd probably do just as well or better than Blair. If he's been in place for a year though, then his majority post 05 election will be smaller than Blair's OTL one.

The UK and US will still cooperate on Iraq, Brown's relationship with Bush will probably be about the same as it was in OTL-eg he'll keep his distance. That's assuming that Blair resigning in 2004 doesn't cause enough butterflies to tip the election Kerry's way.

Not sure what Brown being in power will do to the Tories, though I think Howard probably still resigns after the election. Beyond that, their's a lot of guesswork-though if Brown's majority is small in 2010, the Tories get in with a majority and Brown can probably stick it out until then, as Labour will look very beatable. If however Brown can hold on to more seats in 2005 than Blair in OTL, then Labour could probably pull off a Majoresc win in 2010 under the right circumstances. Since Brown's been in office longer in this TL, he could become more unpopular in 2008/9 though. With a bigger majority (and more of an "awkward squad" in parliament), I could see a more organised "dump Brown" movement succeeding.
 
A quick run-through
2004: Blair quits and is succeeded unopposed by Gordon Brown
2005: General election - honeymoon Brown manages to win a majority of around 120, partly due to the Tories' mismanagement of the Blair departure
2008: Global economic crisis seen more as Brown's fault, as he was prime minister before and during the crisis, so would take slightly more flak.
2010: Brown manages to sneak away with a majority of around 10, with a deal with the Liberal Democrats as a 'buffer' given the anti-Brownites on the Labour backbenches.
2011: Brown quits and is succeeded by David Miliband
2015: Conservative majority government under... who knows.
 
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