What if Wilhelm II had allowed Otto Von Bismark to keep his job? How would the rest of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries play out?
Assuming he dies at the same time, quite possibly not so much. Kaiser
Wilhelm II seems to me at his worst just after his grandmother
died (Queen Victoria), as he was brought back around to undo some of
his more outrageous statements/actions before 1901.
Besides, just because Bismarck is kept on in post does not mean he would
be more than a figurehead. Wikipedia states Otto was totally loyal to
his king, which might mean any of the three. More adult supervision
for a tantrum prone baby? Kaiser Wilhelm II wanted it all and there
were apparently always officers who were eager to get pushed up the
ladder of success by helping him get it. The figurehead option looms
large.
On the other hand, Bismarck was a rare mix of a Junker father and
educated bureaucrat family mother. Perhaps he could have said
something at the right time that might have made the difference
later on, but I do doubt. Wilhelm had his mind set, it seems, and
niether his liberal Empress mother (Q. Victoria's daughter) or anyone
else was going to deviate him from his manly gown or whatever
was going on in his head. IIRC, there was great mental persistence.
However, there were political causes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_von_Bismarck#Last_years
Maybe if there were some sort of keystone catalyst that prevents
the distance of the two men, a great change would have been
possible. In that circumstance, big Mothra sized butterfly moths.
Clearly, Bismarck had his hand on the pulse of a lot of things till
the very end of his life. He was also an opinionated bully of sorts.
Otto Von Bismarck (removed 1890, died in OTL 1898).
There are others far better read than myself on the subject, and
listening to those comments would be useful to make a fuller picture.
Dropping of the Pilot, Punch Magazine 1890
"
Jena came twenty years after the death of
Frederick the Great; the crash will come twenty years after my departure if things go on like this" ― a prophecy fulfilled almost to the month.
[53]
"One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans".
[54]
Bismarck's predictions were true almost to the month of the outbreak of
WWII.