WI Bismarck sided with Russia over San Stefano?

raharris1973

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What if Bismarck decided, consistent with past reciprocal good relations with St. Petersburg, to endorse Russia over the controversial San Stefano peace treaty (resulting in the "Big Bulgaria", playing the role of "honest partner" rather than "honest broker"?

----assuming a Big Bulgaria, what is the future fate of Serbia and Habsburg-Serbian relaions?---

With German diplomatic endorsement, does San Stefano simply become a fait accompli?

Or, do the British and Austrians war with Russia to revise the settlement?

Who does France side with?

If this escalates into a neo-Crimean war (with Britain and France and Austria in an anti-Russian coalition), do those powers also take a punitive approach to Bismarckian Germany as well?

What other alternatives are available besides conflict?

If San Stefano creates a pro-Russian fait accompli in Europe, might other powers take additional Ottoman territory in Europe, Africa or Asia as "compensation" (like Cyprus and Bosnia in OTL, only more) justified by balance of power?
 
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I don't believe Britain would declare war on Russia. They will be extremely displeased at the outcome and will pressure for any and every concession in the final settlement to get the Ottomans back on their feet, but a war against German-backed Russia...doesn't sound well. Andrassy is slippery as always and Britain wouldn't even be able to count Austria as an ally - or at least not rely on it in any real way.

So I imagine Britain will still try to secure a revision through diplomatic means, and I imagine they will succeed at enforcing some minor concessions, but the end result will still look like San Stefano more than anything else.

Additional land-grabs against the Ottoman Empire will definitely become more likely. The Ottoman Empire will be much weaker than in OTL, and there's the balance of power to look after, too.

The future of Serbian politics and Habsburg-Serbian relations depends on whether or not Austria had compensated itself with occupation of Bosnia-Herzegovina (which according to San Stefano they're not supposed to do, but it's not like Russia will strongly object).

If the answer is "no", then an Austrophile shift in Serbia's foreign policy seems like a natural outcome, this time backed by a not so small % of the electorate instead of basically just one man. This means Serbia could potentially become a long-term Austrian partner, even after the Serbian monarch gives way to the internal pressure for democratization.

If yes, then things get a little more complicated. The population becomes slightly pro-Austrian, but Russia remains unquestionably more popular. So even if the Prince's pro-Austrian orientation isn't quite as intensely disliked by the Serbs, it's more than cancelled out by Russia's increased closeness in Bulgaria. The pro-democratic/pro-Russian opposition planned an armed revolt against Prince Milan several times in OTL, but they were thrown off by a lack of Russian support. This time, Russia (and Montenegro) will be in a perfect position to help them seize power and install the Karadjordjevic dynasty on the Serbian throne 10-15 years ahead of schedule.
 
I don't think there would be any likelihood of Austria being involved in any unpleasantness between Britain and Russia. I think if Germany backs Russia - as has been said - the San Stefano Treaty will largely come into effect. Austria would be quite happy to go along with the San Stefano shenanigans if it means she can bag annexation of Bosnia. I could see this leading to some kind of Balkans agreement with spheres of influence (you get Bulgaria, we get Serbia).

Panslavism was not set in stone as an immovable component of Russian foreign policy. It was not Austro - Russian competition in the balkans with regard to Serbia that imploded relations between the two countries. As I have mentioned elsewhere, it was Count Aerenthal's duplicity in the backroom deal that he and Izolvsky came up with in 1908 otl (Austria got to annex Bosnia and Russia would support it, in exchange for Austria supporting Russia as they forced the Turks to open the straights to Russian ships).

Perhaps we could even see a revival of the Three Emperors' League?
 
Paradoxically, this might prove beneficial to the Ottoman Empire in the long term. With Bulgaria's national aspirations almost entirely fulfilled, it won't be in Bulgaria's interest to allow the remaining Ottoman territories to be divided between Greece and Serbia, since this would only strengthen potential claimants to Bulgarain territory. So no Balkan league would be possible in this scenario.
Also likely is that Albania (with Kosovo) would soon become de-facto independent since it would practically lose communication with the rest of the Empire. It would probably become an area where Austria and Italy vie for influence.
 

LordKalvert

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If Bismark backed Russia at the Congress of Berlin, there is little chance that Britain would fight. Britain's style was always to push someone else to the forefront when confronting a continental power. Against Russia, she used Austria (and through her Germany) in the Balkans and Japan in the Pacific. In the Crimea, she let France and Turkey do most of the fighting

Without a strong continental power to help, Britain would likely take it in stride, let the Russians have San Stefano and take Egypt as "compensation". Besides, with the Russians already in Bulgaria, it would be rather hard to keep them out of Constantinople for very long

Austria would never face Russia without German support. Britain could do little to keep Russia out of Vienna and the Austrian army even less.

There is no way that France is joining Britain in a new Crimean War when still recovering from the Franco-Prussian War. Having learned her lesson that she was now the weaker power and broke from the indemnity, a war for rather small gains (if any) is quite unlikely.
 
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How would this impact the balance of power on the continent? Would this change lead to greater stability or greater instability between the great powers.
 
France likely loses the chance to ally with Russia which is going to make their revenge plans against Germany a lot harder then it was in OTL.
 
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