WI bin Laden killed in the Battle of Jaji?

I'm rereading Mark Bowden's The Finish about the events leading up to the death of Osama bin Laden, and in the early chapters, Bowden mentions how bin Laden and his training camp in Afghanistan were attacked by Soviet troops in 1987 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Jaji). What if during the battle, one of the Russians happens to puts a bullet through bin Laden's head instead of his foot? Who, if anybody, fills the void in a world without al Qaeda? What happens in Afghanistan if the Taliban remain in power? How long can Taliban rule persist without US invasion? etc etc

What do you, the viewers at home, think?
 
Though i dont like to subscribe to the idea of great man history, I think bin laden is possibly a point where the course of events did hang upon a very narrow focus. There would no doubt have been an increasing level of anti western radical islamic terror groups following the first gulf war, and due to continued American support of Isreal. But without Bin Laden it perhaps might not have been directed and used in such an offensive manner. It is possible that a lot of the 'big ticket' attacks dont occur without his funding and 'vision', with most groups remaining quite low level.

This would likely mean no invasion of Afganistan, the decades long civil war will continue without much outside interference, the Taliban may hold power for long while, or the Northern Alliance may prevail against them. The result ultimately will not weigh much upon world events.

I think the lack of 9/11 and similar attacks will probably lead to no invasion of Iraq as well. Though prevailing US policy was trending to some kind of confrontation with Saddam, the will to toplle him and go nation building just wont be there, especially without UN support.
It is more likely that the weapons inspection crisis leads at worst to some Iraqi military units being bombed, and at most perhaps covert funding of anti saddam factions. I think Saddam will probably hang on for another decade.

However eventually the middle east region is still going to be in for a prolonged period of instability and conflict, due to two factors. Firstly the simmering Saudi-Iranian cold war will still be ongoing, and both groups will find ways to indirectly strike at each other. Secondly I think a wave of anti-authoritarian uprisings such as we saw in the Arab spring will still occur, as those populations's exposure to western media grows, and they get access to social media networking via which protests can be rapidly coordinated.
Saddam is likely to fall in this wave and Iraq will be a key battleground between saudi and iranian intrests, just as Syria is otl.

Western involvement may be initially lower, but once the oil supply begins to be threatened, there will be intervention. Likely with a pro-saudi bent.
 
The big question is: How would an Al Qaeda organization look without Osama Bin Laden at the helm?

I have two conflicting ideas:
First: In the 90's and early 2000's, there definitely was a void waiting for a new Islamist-Jihadist terror organization to form in. So there would be some kind of Al Qaida even without Bin Laden. It would just be led by another charismatic figure, possibly coming out of the Afghanistan Mujahedeen, possibly out of Palestina, Algeria or Lebanon. It would endorse the same kind of anti-USA stance and try the same kind of foreign-soil suicide attacks against high-profile symbolic targets. It might even be successful from time to time.

However, with his background in international business, Osama Bin Laden was uniquely qualified to run his terror organization like a well-oiled modern multinational corporation: Powerful like a banking imperium yet nimble like a high-tech startup. Many charismatic people could start a terrorist group, but only someone like Bin Laden could turn Al Qaida into a 'terror brand'. So if Al Qeida could have pulled of something as big as the 9-11 attacks without his leadership, it could only do so because between 1990 and 2000 he developed the structure that gave Al Qaida the capabilities. Without him, would there be another leader that could build up his terror organization likewise?
 
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