Though i dont like to subscribe to the idea of great man history, I think bin laden is possibly a point where the course of events did hang upon a very narrow focus. There would no doubt have been an increasing level of anti western radical islamic terror groups following the first gulf war, and due to continued American support of Isreal. But without Bin Laden it perhaps might not have been directed and used in such an offensive manner. It is possible that a lot of the 'big ticket' attacks dont occur without his funding and 'vision', with most groups remaining quite low level.
This would likely mean no invasion of Afganistan, the decades long civil war will continue without much outside interference, the Taliban may hold power for long while, or the Northern Alliance may prevail against them. The result ultimately will not weigh much upon world events.
I think the lack of 9/11 and similar attacks will probably lead to no invasion of Iraq as well. Though prevailing US policy was trending to some kind of confrontation with Saddam, the will to toplle him and go nation building just wont be there, especially without UN support.
It is more likely that the weapons inspection crisis leads at worst to some Iraqi military units being bombed, and at most perhaps covert funding of anti saddam factions. I think Saddam will probably hang on for another decade.
However eventually the middle east region is still going to be in for a prolonged period of instability and conflict, due to two factors. Firstly the simmering Saudi-Iranian cold war will still be ongoing, and both groups will find ways to indirectly strike at each other. Secondly I think a wave of anti-authoritarian uprisings such as we saw in the Arab spring will still occur, as those populations's exposure to western media grows, and they get access to social media networking via which protests can be rapidly coordinated.
Saddam is likely to fall in this wave and Iraq will be a key battleground between saudi and iranian intrests, just as Syria is otl.
Western involvement may be initially lower, but once the oil supply begins to be threatened, there will be intervention. Likely with a pro-saudi bent.