WI: Bin Laden Killed at Tora Bora

Although Osama bin Laden managed to survive for almost 10 years after 9/11, he was almost killed at the Tora Bora cave complex in December of 2001. How would a successful killing of bin Laden so soon after 9/11 have affected the US' futher involvement in Afghanistan and Al Qaeda's ability to mount further attacks?
 
Not at all. The genie was out of the bottle at that point and he was little more than a figurehead, he was not really active in planning further operation.

Now, if you want a real POD if you go back to the 1980's and he had the misfortune to encounter a SPETSNAZ unit would anyone have staged the attacks on the World Trade Center.
 
Not at all. The genie was out of the bottle at that point and he was little more than a figurehead, he was not really active in planning further operation.

Now, if you want a real POD if you go back to the 1980's and he had the misfortune to encounter a SPETSNAZ unit would anyone have staged the attacks on the World Trade Center.

But would losing the figure head demoralize Al Qaeda?
 
Osama was the one pushing for huge showpiece attacks vs random bombings and general terrorist acts. Most of Al Queda was certain something like 9-11 was just not possible (and rightfully afraid of the response it would bring). If Osama is removed early enough, it's questionable that the attacks happen.
 
I wonder if it might be enough to butterfly away the idea of staying in Afghanistan for 20 years... we go in, kill all the guys who did it, put someone tolerable in charge, and then leave. Maybe?
 
@thekingsguard : Nice idea, won't work. The Taliban remnants fade in to the woodwork and then re-emerge after the USA leaves. They did not need Osama to do what they did/do. Had the Taliban turned OBL over to the USA and decided to eject foreign "fighters" and concentrate on running their own version of paradise the USA probably would have left them alone. Rightly or wrongly it was the perception that an Afghanistan run by the Taliban would be a perpetual safe zone and training area for jihadists who would them go elsewhere to do their dirty work that made taking out the Taliban a strategy.
 
@sloreck just reinstate the King and set up a democracy-lite, then leave. The King was popular enough that he could hold the nation together during the formative years of the new government.
 
Tora Bora was a shit show on the part of the US Military, which was woefully underprepared and underequipped for the operation.
Bin Laden was always going to escape.
 
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