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As I'm certain many here know, in 1999 US B-2 Spirit stealth bombers taking part in NATO airstrikes against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia mistakenly bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, killing three Chinese reporters. Over the next few days, violent anti-American protests raged across China, with protesters throwing Molotov cocktails at US diplomatic installations and at times threatening to overrun them. Paul Blackburn, a Public Affairs Officer for the State Department in Beijing at the time, had this to say:

During the first day and a half of the crisis, many of our colleagues, especially those in the Chancery and at some of the Consulates, were in significant danger. Though U.S. Marines protected the Chancery from direct assault, officers on the spot engaged in a full-scale destruction of classified materials that might fall into the hands of demonstrators should the Embassy be overrun. In hindsight, it appears the danger was never that close, but several Chinese did jump the compound wall and had to be confronted by Marines in full battle gear before they were persuaded to jump back over the wall.

Except for Shanghai, with its own Marine guard contingent, the other Consulates were protected only by Chinese security guards. In Chengdu those guards were of virtually no help. Demonstrators climbed the compound wall, set fire to the Consul’s residence, and smashed their way through the outer door of the Consulate. They were using a bike rack to try to crash into the interior – while screaming that they were going to exact vengeance – when city security forces finally arrived and routed them....

During this most dangerous period I talked with Min Bookbinder, the wife of the BPAO [Branch Public Affairs Officer], who was then standing on the roof of the Consulate staff apartment building. She ... described for me the pervasive fear that the apartments were soon to come under direct attack. Chengdu staffers and their families were traumatized during that period, but fortunately the situation soon stabilized…

So, the scenario is this: Chinese protesters storm the American consulate in Chengdu and slaughter the diplomatic personnel still inside. Chinese security forces, for one reason or another, are unable to respond in time to prevent the attack.

What happens? Obviously an attack on an American consulate that kills US citizens, while not quite as serious as a whole-sale assault on the embassy itself, will have a major impact on Sino-American relations. While I doubt that either side will go to war - most likely China arrests a lot of people and sends frantic apologies to Washington - this is going to whip the US populace into a fury not seen since the Iran hostage crisis.

How would the US respond? Evacuating US personnel from China? Sanctioning China? Recognizing Taiwan?
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