WI: Bill's Benghazi (Chinese Embassy Crisis '99)

As I'm certain many here know, in 1999 US B-2 Spirit stealth bombers taking part in NATO airstrikes against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia mistakenly bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, killing three Chinese reporters. Over the next few days, violent anti-American protests raged across China, with protesters throwing Molotov cocktails at US diplomatic installations and at times threatening to overrun them. Paul Blackburn, a Public Affairs Officer for the State Department in Beijing at the time, had this to say:

During the first day and a half of the crisis, many of our colleagues, especially those in the Chancery and at some of the Consulates, were in significant danger. Though U.S. Marines protected the Chancery from direct assault, officers on the spot engaged in a full-scale destruction of classified materials that might fall into the hands of demonstrators should the Embassy be overrun. In hindsight, it appears the danger was never that close, but several Chinese did jump the compound wall and had to be confronted by Marines in full battle gear before they were persuaded to jump back over the wall.

Except for Shanghai, with its own Marine guard contingent, the other Consulates were protected only by Chinese security guards. In Chengdu those guards were of virtually no help. Demonstrators climbed the compound wall, set fire to the Consul’s residence, and smashed their way through the outer door of the Consulate. They were using a bike rack to try to crash into the interior – while screaming that they were going to exact vengeance – when city security forces finally arrived and routed them....

During this most dangerous period I talked with Min Bookbinder, the wife of the BPAO [Branch Public Affairs Officer], who was then standing on the roof of the Consulate staff apartment building. She ... described for me the pervasive fear that the apartments were soon to come under direct attack. Chengdu staffers and their families were traumatized during that period, but fortunately the situation soon stabilized…

So, the scenario is this: Chinese protesters storm the American consulate in Chengdu and slaughter the diplomatic personnel still inside. Chinese security forces, for one reason or another, are unable to respond in time to prevent the attack.

What happens? Obviously an attack on an American consulate that kills US citizens, while not quite as serious as a whole-sale assault on the embassy itself, will have a major impact on Sino-American relations. While I doubt that either side will go to war - most likely China arrests a lot of people and sends frantic apologies to Washington - this is going to whip the US populace into a fury not seen since the Iran hostage crisis.

How would the US respond? Evacuating US personnel from China? Sanctioning China? Recognizing Taiwan?
 
this is going to whip the US populace into a fury not seen since the Iran hostage crisis.

American journalists were murdered by Somoza's soldiers in Nicaragua 1979, and while that probably contributed to a weakening of US support for his doomed regime, I don't recall that it led to a wave of violent anti-Nicaraugan sentiment among the US population. A lot of people were probably just "Oh well, sucks man, but that's the risk when you go to a war zone", and I'd bet more than a few right-winers were privatley smirking that a couple of liberal pansies who were presenting a "distorted view" of "our allies" got their heads blown off.

So, the OP scenario basically combines the journalists' murders, with the hostage crisis. With one major difference as to the latter parallel: It doesn't last anywhere as long, since as the OP states, China quickly puts the kibosh on the consulate attack.

So from the American public...

Muted response to the death of Americans at the consulate, followed by truncated anger about the seizure itself, since the festivites are not going to go on long enough for the same kind of "Most powerful nation in the world humiliated by third-world upstart" narrative that fueled the hostage crisis. And since no one in government who isn't a deranged Manhattan real-estate tycoon would seriously consider recognizing Taiwan under such underwhelming circumstances, there's no incentive to whip up "Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran" type sentiments among the population.

One possible factor impacting public opinion toward the more hysterical might be if the dead Americans are middle-class tourists(bonus points if children), rather than Georgetown graduates doing a working holiday as embassy employees.

TL/DR: Limited impact, because the deaths won't be that big a deal, and the embassy seizue won't last long.
 
The storming of an American Embassy, along with deaths of Americans, will probably derail China's entry into the WTO due to domestic reaction within the United States. A review of what transpired since that occurred in 2001 would suggest this will deal a serious blow to China's economy.
 
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