WI Bill Rowling Wins 1981 NZ Election

We already had carless days but I guess no wage/price freeze so a very different early 80s experience.

Would Lange have rolled Rowling to claim power in 1984? If so then the rest of the 80s plays out much the same. But if not? No Rogernomics and New Zealand remains a command economy into the 90s.

I guess we'd still be feeling the impact of that today.
 
We already had carless days but I guess no wage/price freeze so a very different early 80s experience.

Would Lange have rolled Rowling to claim power in 1984? If so then the rest of the 80s plays out much the same. But if not? No Rogernomics and New Zealand remains a command economy into the 90s.

I guess we'd still be feeling the impact of that today.

I was thinking National might beat Rowling in 1984 and McLay or Bolger might carry out a combination of Rogernomics and Ruthanasia.
 
I was thinking National might beat Rowling in 1984 and McLay or Bolger might carry out a combination of Rogernomics and Ruthanasia.

Like a parallel to the USA presidency in OTL with Rowling as Jimmy Carter ( nice guy, but doomed to one term) and McLay as the economic neoliberal poster-boy ala Reagan?
 
Like a parallel to the USA presidency in OTL with Rowling as Jimmy Carter ( nice guy, but doomed to one term) and McLay as the economic neoliberal poster-boy ala Reagan?

That's one way of thinking about it, but I'm not sure if McLay would win a second term, given the opposition is probably less divided than national 1984-1987 IOTL, there is no nuclear free policy passed by McLay. Do you think he'd be re-elected? I think it's about 50-50.
 
That's one way of thinking about it, but I'm not sure if McLay would win a second term, given the opposition is probably less divided than national 1984-1987 IOTL, there is no nuclear free policy passed by McLay. Do you think he'd be re-elected? I think it's about 50-50.

I think a lot depends on whether McLay can marginalise Robert Muldoon - if there's still a number of Muldoon loyalist MPs in a McLay Government, then they won't be able to roll out a coherent agenda, let alone focus on winning reelection.

Key to this would be bringing Bill Birch, Jim Bolger & George Gair onside with McLay's economic & social liberalisation agenda - which might be a good thing if it softens the policy a little compared to OTL's Rogernomics.
 
Say what you will about the man but Douglas was a pretty good writer. Not an honest one, but a good one: his books are great reading.

IOTL of course Rogernomics, as with all monetarist policies, was a huge failure. Some of the policies were certainly needed, but most was not. Ironically his best idea, universal basic income, suffered the exact same fate as Nixon's proposal. However Roger Douglas was considering stepping down in 1981, if Rowling wins Lange and Douglas will be marginalized as much as possible which may mean Douglas is out. Likewise avoiding the last government of Muldoon should leave NZ's books in better order, weakening the case for insanity.

That said Rawling had pissed off too many people, and a narrow '81 victory would do little to shut them up. I can't see how Lange doesn't topple him, myself, but Douglas is potentially long gone. However we can go deeper. Douglas himself only went hard-right in the early 1980s, and the only reason he pushed it through was because 1983-4 was a time of crisis in NZ. In this alternate timeline they probably follow a more Australian Hawke style plan regardless of Douglas being there.

So. Rowling wins 1981, scrapping into government with a narrow majority. This means several years to develop plans, no Douglas, no adoption of Douglas's plans (1982 IOTL), etc... which means they have time and potential solutions to their problems. If Rowling holds onto power, will he go much beyond 1986 or so? Even so Lange will now have Hawke's example in Australia, and can ignore the radical untested Douglas ideas (if he remains around).

Say Labour holds on in 1983-4, re-elected with Rowling or Lange, follows Hawke-like approach instead of crazy approach, the Nationals are pulled left instead of being able to double down with Ruth, etc... Economic success will likely lead to Labour returning in 1990, probably still under Lange without OTL's disasters under him and Douglas.

1993-4 however is more than a decade in power, I imagine the Nationals will take it back but Ruth won't get to nuke the rest of the economy. Pretty good for NZ all told.
 
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