I'm inclined to believe that he could, since popular incumbent two-term Presidents often have their VP lose the following election to a more charismatic opponent. See the 1960 and 2000 elections for examples on that.As the tin says, what if Bill Clinton ran for the Presidency in 1988? Assuming he became the Democratic candidate, would he be able to defeat GHWB? If he did manage to win, what would his first term look like? Think he'd manage a second term?
As the tin says, what if Bill Clinton ran for the Presidency in 1988? Assuming he became the Democratic candidate, would he be able to defeat GHWB? If he did manage to win, what would his first term look like? Think he'd manage a second term?
I'm inclined to believe that he could, since popular incumbent two-term Presidents often have their VP lose the following election to a more charismatic opponent. See the 1960 and 2000 elections for examples on that.
He'd be utterly and completely destroyed in the post-Monkey Business atmosphere. (And he only really started mulling it over after Hart was out of the race) The feverish tabloid atmos of that year would cripple Bubba given his baggage, not just as a contender for that year but as a future potential nominee. If he had announced in Summer 1987, his career would be over. No way is he riding out his baggage a la 1992 Gennifer Flowers in '87, not as a marginal second tier candidate a mere few weeks after Hart has proven unviable. Yeah, nah, not happening.
Not running for the 1988 nomination was probably the smartest thing Bubba ever did.
(God knows how this would actually affect that race in the wider scheme though; assuming Biden is also taken out later, then you would have had three contenders taken out in the pre-campaign under dubious circumstances; that's going to become a thing which someone like Simon will be able to profit from as a 'clean' outsider; God knows what this does to Gore's campaign, which will expedite him becoming a Southern Democrat as the race did IOTL - he's going to go to the right of Bubba earlier in order to destroy him as a factor in the South. Gore will really end up being totally and utterly off the map everywhere except the South ITTL, which will be deeply problematic for him in any 1990s nomination. Talk about a fuck-over for Dem moderates...)
He'd be utterly and completely destroyed in the post-Monkey Business atmosphere. (And he only really started mulling it over after Hart was out of the race) The feverish tabloid atmos of that year would cripple Bubba given his baggage, not just as a contender for that year but as a future potential nominee. If he had announced in Summer 1987, his career would be over. No way is he riding out his baggage a la 1992 Gennifer Flowers in '87, not as a marginal second tier candidate a mere few weeks after Hart has proven unviable. Yeah, nah, not happening.
Not running for the 1988 nomination was probably the smartest thing Bubba ever did.
(God knows how this would actually affect that race in the wider scheme though; assuming Biden is also taken out later, then you would have had three contenders taken out in the pre-campaign under dubious circumstances; that's going to become a thing which someone like Simon will be able to profit from as a 'clean' outsider; God knows what this does to Gore's campaign, which will expedite him becoming a Southern Democrat as the race did IOTL - he's going to go to the right of Bubba earlier in order to destroy him as a factor in the South. Gore will really end up being totally and utterly off the map everywhere except the South ITTL, which will be deeply problematic for him in any 1990s nomination. Talk about a fuck-over for Dem moderates...)