WI: Bill Clinton Runs for POTUS in 1988?

As the tin says, what if Bill Clinton ran for the Presidency in 1988? Assuming he became the Democratic candidate, would he be able to defeat GHWB? If he did manage to win, what would his first term look like? Think he'd manage a second term?
 
As the tin says, what if Bill Clinton ran for the Presidency in 1988? Assuming he became the Democratic candidate, would he be able to defeat GHWB? If he did manage to win, what would his first term look like? Think he'd manage a second term?
I'm inclined to believe that he could, since popular incumbent two-term Presidents often have their VP lose the following election to a more charismatic opponent. See the 1960 and 2000 elections for examples on that.
 
As the tin says, what if Bill Clinton ran for the Presidency in 1988? Assuming he became the Democratic candidate, would he be able to defeat GHWB? If he did manage to win, what would his first term look like? Think he'd manage a second term?

I'd feel George H.W. Bush would win election in 1988, but perhaps Mario Cuomo wins the 1992 nomination for the Democrats considering the lack of Dukakis which muddied up the image of the 'northeastern' liberal from what I understand in reading through it?
 
Didn't Clinton choose not to run largely due to scandals? Also I feel like Atwater would've shut down Clinton if he gets any scent of his affairs, though it would be interesting if Clinton ran as a 'Tough on Crime' Democrat versus Dukakis,wouldn't in that case Gore and Jackson take votes from him though and vice versa?
 
I'm inclined to believe that he could, since popular incumbent two-term Presidents often have their VP lose the following election to a more charismatic opponent. See the 1960 and 2000 elections for examples on that.

Nixon would almost certainly have won in 1960 had there been no recession that year. 1988 was a year of peace and prosperity, and IMO the election was Bush's to lose. Moreover, Clinton (in the unlikely event he would be nominated) would face both personal attacks (on extramarital affairs, etc.) and the perception he was too young and inexperienced, especially in foreign policy. (In 1992, with the USSR gone, Clinton's lack of foreign policy experience was less of a handicap; and if some still saw him as too young, he was in any event four years older than he had been in 1988...)

I think it's very unlikely he would get nominated anyway. As Gore's failure to get the nomination showed, the Democrats were not yet ready to nominate a southern "New Democrat"--it was only the defeat of Dukakis coming after that of Mondale that made them open to it in 1992. (And of course if Gore still runs for the nomination in 1988, there is no room for Clinton.)
 
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He'd be utterly and completely destroyed in the post-Monkey Business atmosphere. (And he only really started mulling it over after Hart was out of the race) The feverish tabloid atmos of that year would cripple Bubba given his baggage, not just as a contender for that year but as a future potential nominee. If he had announced in Summer 1987, his career would be over. No way is he riding out his baggage a la 1992 Gennifer Flowers in '87, not as a marginal second tier candidate a mere few weeks after Hart has proven unviable. Yeah, nah, not happening.

Not running for the 1988 nomination was probably the smartest thing Bubba ever did.

(God knows how this would actually affect that race in the wider scheme though; assuming Biden is also taken out later, then you would have had three contenders taken out in the pre-campaign under dubious circumstances; that's going to become a thing which someone like Simon will be able to profit from as a 'clean' outsider; God knows what this does to Gore's campaign, which will expedite him becoming a Southern Democrat as the race did IOTL - he's going to go to the right of Bubba earlier in order to destroy him as a factor in the South. Gore will really end up being totally and utterly off the map everywhere except the South ITTL, which will be deeply problematic for him in any 1990s nomination. Talk about a fuck-over for Dem moderates...)
 
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I could also see the GOP making parallels to Carter in the event that Bill ran in '88, and America was not going to elect Jimmy Carter 2.0 just 8 years after Jimmy lost in a landslide.
 
He'd be utterly and completely destroyed in the post-Monkey Business atmosphere. (And he only really started mulling it over after Hart was out of the race) The feverish tabloid atmos of that year would cripple Bubba given his baggage, not just as a contender for that year but as a future potential nominee. If he had announced in Summer 1987, his career would be over. No way is he riding out his baggage a la 1992 Gennifer Flowers in '87, not as a marginal second tier candidate a mere few weeks after Hart has proven unviable. Yeah, nah, not happening.

Not running for the 1988 nomination was probably the smartest thing Bubba ever did.

(God knows how this would actually affect that race in the wider scheme though; assuming Biden is also taken out later, then you would have had three contenders taken out in the pre-campaign under dubious circumstances; that's going to become a thing which someone like Simon will be able to profit from as a 'clean' outsider; God knows what this does to Gore's campaign, which will expedite him becoming a Southern Democrat as the race did IOTL - he's going to go to the right of Bubba earlier in order to destroy him as a factor in the South. Gore will really end up being totally and utterly off the map everywhere except the South ITTL, which will be deeply problematic for him in any 1990s nomination. Talk about a fuck-over for Dem moderates...)

What if there were a two part POD: (1) Bill doesn't have an affair with Gennifer Flowers in 77 and (2) Reagan and Bush can't escape from Iran-Contra?
 
He'd be utterly and completely destroyed in the post-Monkey Business atmosphere. (And he only really started mulling it over after Hart was out of the race) The feverish tabloid atmos of that year would cripple Bubba given his baggage, not just as a contender for that year but as a future potential nominee. If he had announced in Summer 1987, his career would be over. No way is he riding out his baggage a la 1992 Gennifer Flowers in '87, not as a marginal second tier candidate a mere few weeks after Hart has proven unviable. Yeah, nah, not happening.

Not running for the 1988 nomination was probably the smartest thing Bubba ever did.

(God knows how this would actually affect that race in the wider scheme though; assuming Biden is also taken out later, then you would have had three contenders taken out in the pre-campaign under dubious circumstances; that's going to become a thing which someone like Simon will be able to profit from as a 'clean' outsider; God knows what this does to Gore's campaign, which will expedite him becoming a Southern Democrat as the race did IOTL - he's going to go to the right of Bubba earlier in order to destroy him as a factor in the South. Gore will really end up being totally and utterly off the map everywhere except the South ITTL, which will be deeply problematic for him in any 1990s nomination. Talk about a fuck-over for Dem moderates...)

Yeah, pretty much this. The Richard Ben Cramer book "What It Takes" on the 1988 election refers to the role of the press as "Karacter Kops" (the spelling is Cramer's) with respect to the coverage of character issues in 1988. Hart and Biden were both undone by these kinds of issues and I have little doubt that Clinton, with his habitual shading of the truth, would have had a giant bullseye painted on his back. Between the draft, the rumors of infidelity, the press would have massacred him and what they left alone, Atwater and crew would have picked up. It was the wrong cycle for Clinton; he likely would have lost and lost badly. The utter absurdity of what was done to Hart prompted some introspection regarding the coverage of character issues between 1988 and 1992 and Clinton capitalized on that in 1992. But in 1988 was different and the atmosphere for Clinton then would have been deadly.
 
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