WI: Bill Clinton does poorly (e.g. in NH)?

What would have happened, and who would have become the democratic nominee if Bill Clinton's campaign could either not take off due to the affair allegations coming true/being more serious (Flowersgate?) or fails/gets nipped in the bud due to a poor show in New Hampshire?

Would we more likely see a nominee called Paul Tsongas or Jerry Brown? Would we see Tsongas or Brown as POTUS and if yes, what are their Veeps and policies?

Or would this invariably lead to a two-term president George H. W. Bush (sen.)?
 
If either one of those scenarios happen and it stays down to Brown and Tsongas, it'll be a close fought primary with multiple outcomes:

  1. Brown wins the nomination, wins over some of Perot's voters (if Perot still runs) and beats Bush easily.
  2. Brown gets the nomination, alienates voters with his more eccentric stances and policies, Perot does better (again if he still runs) and Bush gets a second term
  3. Tsongas gets the nomination, runs a boring, but effective campaign and beats Bush by a margin slightly smaller or equivalent to Clinton.
 
Rather than Brown or Tsongas, I'd think Bob Kerrey (of Land of Flatwater fame around here) would probably be more viable. Tsongas was running on a deficit scolding austerity program and Brown was widely perceived as somewhat off the (moon) beam. Kerrey is the only one I can see picking up the moderate, let's pick someone who can win vote Clinton got. Kerrey was a Medal of Honor winner, a Senator and a Governor in addition to not being your stereotypical liberal Democrat.
 
Clinton did do badly in New Hampshire. The whole "comeback kid" thing was a narrative fueled by media and the Clinton money. It allowed Clinton to be the only presidential candidate in history to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and win the nomination.

I lived through that, and this was not the 1970s era of anything goes Presidential primaries, it was the modern era when Democratic Party officials and big donors put a big thumb on the scale. If for some reason they couldn't get Clinton, there was absolutely no way they were going to let Jerry Brown to be the nominee. They would have instead shifted to Tsongas or Kerrey, depending on whether insiders were scared off more by Tsongas' health or by Kerrey's war crimes. They probably would have gone for Tsongas. If absolutely necessary, someone would have come out of nowhere at the last minute, won a bunch of primaries, candidates would have dropped out, and the delegates would have materialized. But it wouldn't have been Brown.
 
The Democratic Party is not the Republican Party. Look at the success rate for both parties with grass-roots activists being able to de-select elected pols that they don't like.
 
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