WI Bill Clinton didn't go on Carson?

[csa945]

In the wake of Johnny Carson's passing, Bill Clinton stated that it was going on the Tonight Show and playing his saxophone that allowed him to get the nomination for president in the '92 election, after his ill-received speech at the '88 DNC.
So what would have happened had Clinton not played his sax on late night? Would he have lost the primary? If so, who would have won it? Would he (or she ) have been able to oust GHWBush?

 

[Mako-Chan]

In the wake of Johnny Carson's passing, Bill Clinton stated that it was going on the Tonight Show and playing his saxophone that allowed him to get the nomination for president in the '92 election, after his ill-received speech at the '88 DNC.
So what would have happened had Clinton not played his sax on late night? Would he have lost the primary? If so, who would have won it? Would he (or she ) have been able to oust GHWBush?

Actually, Clinton was on the Arsenio Hall Show when he played the saxophone, not the Tonight Show. Or is this a double blind what if?

 

[robertp6165]

Actually, Clinton was on the Arsenio Hall Show when he played the saxophone, not the Tonight Show. Or is this a double blind what if?

The following quote is from the obituary of Johnny Carson from AP...

He made presidential history again in July 1988 when he had then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton (news - web sites) on his show a few days after Clinton came under widespread ridicule for a boring speech at the Democratic National Convention. Clinton traded quips with Carson and played "Summertime" on the saxophone in what was hailed as a stunning comeback.

 

[csa945]

Actually, Clinton was on the Arsenio Hall Show when he played the saxophone, not the Tonight Show. Or is this a double blind what if?

Oops. I was mistaken -- or saw a faulty report on MSNBC.

In any case, what if Clinton hadn't done whatever it was he did (Carson or Arsenio) to bounce back from the bad DNC speech?

 

[Xen]

In the wake of Johnny Carson's passing, Bill Clinton stated that it was going on the Tonight Show and playing his saxophone that allowed him to get the nomination for president in the '92 election, after his ill-received speech at the '88 DNC.
So what would have happened had Clinton not played his sax on late night? Would he have lost the primary? If so, who would have won it? Would he (or she ) have been able to oust GHWBush?

The Dems would probably give the nod to Paul Tsongas. Tsongas, I believe would have won in 1992, the shape of the economy was not very good for George H.W. Bush and would have crippled him unless Tsongas did something very stupid. It would also be remembered as the single most boring election in history, two men made out of wood trying to become the first post-cold war president of the United States.

Now who Tsongas would have nominated as his Vice President, I dont know. It would be important to know, knowing now that Tsongas' health wasnt very good, it is likely the job would have killed him before the next election, even if it didnt he would look weak and frail. Had he had lived throughout his first term its doubtful the Democrats would have re-nominated him, and likely he would have bowed down due to his health. If for some reason he would have run again and won the Dems nomination, Bob Dole would probably have become the 43d President of the United States.

 

[csa945]

The Dems would probably give the nod to Paul Tsongas.

I just Googled Paul Tsongas to find out some more about him (I was only 8 during the '92 election so I didn't follow politics much in depth then), and I saw that he was from Massachusetts. I don't know, but considering that the major catch phrase from the '88 election was "Massachusetts Liberal" in reference to Michael Dukakis.
Do you think that Democrats would have run another "Massachusetts Liberal" so soon after the '88 landslide? I still don't know much about him -- he may have been a straight-down-the-middle-moderate for all I know, but that wouldn't necessarily prevent the GOP from branding him with the same label as the '88 presidential candidate, especially considering he was from the same state.

 

[Xen]

I just Googled Paul Tsongas to find out some more about him (I was only 8 during the '92 election so I didn't follow politics much in depth then), and I saw that he was from Massachusetts. I don't know, but considering that the major catch phrase from the '88 election was "Massachusetts Liberal" in reference to Michael Dukakis.
Do you think that Democrats would have run another "Massachusetts Liberal" so soon after the '88 landslide? I still don't know much about him -- he may have been a straight-down-the-middle-moderate for all I know, but that wouldn't necessarily prevent the GOP from branding him with the same label as the '88 presidential candidate, especially considering he was from the same state.

Tsongas was the early favorite to win, he was a rather Conservative Democrat, a centerist. So branding him a Massachusetts Liberal would be difficult, and he was a wall street candidate, it would be difficult for Bush to call him on that. The best the Republicans can do is call him on his health and hope that works, other than that the Republicans (who have held power for 12 years, alot in American politics) are in trouble. I can even see him probably having Douglas Wilder, the governor of Virginia (and a Conservative black Democrat) as his running mate which again will hurt the Republicans in 1992, though it may help them in the south. If Tsongas dies in his first term with Wilder as his Veep, the United States gets its first black President, he could be re-elected in 1996, and possibly in 2000.

 

[AMBOMB]

In the wake of Johnny Carson's passing, Bill Clinton stated that it was going on the Tonight Show and playing his saxophone that allowed him to get the nomination for president in the '92 election, after his ill-received speech at the '88 DNC.
So what would have happened had Clinton not played his sax on late night? Would he have lost the primary? If so, who would have won it? Would he (or she ) have been able to oust GHWBush?

Bush would've lost the 1992 election no matter who his Democratic opponent was because of the 6% rule, which states that the incumbent wins when the economy grows more than 6% from the third quarter of the year before the year before the election through the third quarter of the year of the election. The economy grew only 3.35% from the third quarter of 1990 through the third quarter of 1992.

 

[csa945]

Bush would've lost the 1992 election no matter who his Democratic opponent was because of the 6% rule, which states that the incumbent wins when the economy grows more than 6% from the third quarter of the year before the year before the election through the third quarter of the year of the election. The economy grew only 3.35% from the third quarter of 1990 through the third quarter of 1992.

There are plenty more rules than that, which are completely unrelated, and in 2004 they contradicted each other. We ran through several on the Wes Clark wins DNC nomination in 2004 thread.

 

[Yossarian]

If this happened, I doubt that Clinton would end his presidential ambitions. He could easily become the democratic candidate of 2000, going against Bush.

 

[csa945]

If this happened, I doubt that Clinton would end his presidential ambitions. He could easily become the democratic candidate of 2000, going against Bush.

If Xen is right, that Tsongas would win in '92, but, due to health reasons, would be defeated by the Republican primary in '96, then Clinton would be running against whoever won then. I'm not so sure it would be Dole, though. The '96 Republican campaign was kind of devoid of serious candidates, because everyone just assumed that Clinton would win. If more Republicans thought they could have won, maybe some more serious candidates would have run. It would have been too early after his father's defeat for W to run in '96. So maybe John McCain? Colin Powell?

As a side note, this is somethong I've heard, but I'm not sure if it's true or not. I know that Powell didn't run in '96 because his wife didn't want him to, but I heard that the reason for this is because she thinks that the first black president will be assassinated. Can anyone confirm or refute this for me?

 

[AMBOMB]

There are plenty more rules than that, which are completely unrelated, and in 2004 they contradicted each other. We ran through several on the Wes Clark wins DNC nomination in 2004 thread.

But the 6% rule held up.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Don't forget Ross Perot in 1992. If both major parties nominate "wooden" candidates, he might have a chance.

CSA, you were 8 during the 1992 election? So was I. I remember the SNL debates from that time (Ross Perot turning into a Wizard of Oz munchkin, among other things). When my second grade class did a "mock election," I voted for Ross Perot.

 

[csa945]

When my second grade class did a "mock election," I voted for Ross Perot.

Yeah, I was for Perot, too, back then. I think it was because I liked those colorful charts and graphs he would whip out during interviews.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Yeah, I was for Perot, too, back then. I think it was because I liked those colorful charts and graphs he would whip out during interviews.

I did it b/c he was "a good businessman" (an impression I got from a campaign commercial of him sitting at a desk with papers--I remember the commercial at least). In hindsight, he was too anti-free-trade, though shaking up the two party system is always a plus.

What an endorsement--liked by 8-year-olds everywhere.