WI: Bill Clinton advocated raising the tobacco age to 21 in 1996

Whether he encourages towns and/or states to raise their ages or expresses a desire to raise the federal age, would this help him, hurt him, or not make a difference? Would the media or voters care?
 
Whether he encourages towns and/or states to raise their ages or expresses a desire to raise the federal age, would this help him, hurt him, or not make a difference? Would the media or voters care?

Hurt him slightly among 18-20 year olds. Small portion of the electorate that isn't all that active, so the results stay the same.

Might swing Louisiana to Woody Jenkins as that race was decided by only 6000 votes.
 
Whether he encourages towns and/or states to raise their ages or expresses a desire to raise the federal age, would this help him, hurt him, or not make a difference? Would the media or voters care?
Why would he?

There were Mad Mothers against Drunk Driving, because that directly killed other people in very quick and messy ways

There were no anti-smoking groups with such support. Most they were able to do was to make most Fast food chains Smoke Free a few3 years before.

Why would he burn political capital doing this? The big Tobacco lawsuit was still in the future, only a settlements with a handful of States at this time, as Bills to against Big Tobacco had crashed and burned in Congress
 
Wait you can smoke at 18 but not drink?Wut

I think Reagan raising the drinking-age was somehow connected to reducing drunk-driving? At least, that's what I've always assumed, given that he tied the issue to highway funding.

Apart from second-hand smoke(which is easier to regulate without age restrictions), smoking is much more of a victimless vice than alcohol.
 

Marc

Donor
Or would thousands more die due to the black market tobacco trade to the under 21s? I don't drink, smoke or do drugs but I still think drug prohibitions don't really work.
Short answer: No. The black market in cigarettes has been and still is really trivial - even with extremely high taxation, it never has become anything of note. The younger people start smoking, the higher the eventual death rate.
Raising the minimum age isn't prohibition, it's just reducing the number of people who will die from said drug, whether it's tobacco, or teenagers getting loaded on beer and driving, etc.
A short quote from the CDC:

Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than 41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure. This is about one in five deaths annually, or 1,300 deaths every day. On average, smokers die 10 years earlier than nonsmokers.
 

Marc

Donor
with tens of thousands of people going to jail.

I support if you're old enough to vote old enough to join the Army you're old enough to drink and smoke

Come on, no one goes to jail, they just can't get addicted earlier.
As my father used to say, "Being an adult doesn't give you the right to be stupid."
 
Come on, no one goes to jail, they just can't get addicted earlier.
As my father used to say, "Being an adult doesn't give you the right to be stupid."
Death of Eric Garner there are a lot of people that have gone to jail for selling cigarettes you fail to see the stupidity in the US justice system in the 90s they like throwing people in jail.
and sorry dude Freedom of Choice trumps anything your father said prohibition for the most part always leads to more crime.

i will tell you this i don't smoke or drink because i believe it is detrimental to my health but I will never Force someone to make the same Life Choices I have made against their will.

and I'll be leaving it at that we clearly cannot agree on this so let's agree to disagree.

 
timing does matter,

in that I think you need the public outrage at the Joe Camel tobacco ads

and especially at the company playing dumb, Oh, these ads appeal to kids, who would have thunk it?
 
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Short answer: No. The black market in cigarettes has been and still is really trivial - even with extremely high taxation, it never has become anything of note. The younger people start smoking, the higher the eventual death rate.
Raising the minimum age isn't prohibition, it's just reducing the number of people who will die from said drug, whether it's tobacco, or teenagers getting loaded on beer and driving, etc.
A short quote from the CDC:

Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than 41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure. This is about one in five deaths annually, or 1,300 deaths every day. On average, smokers die 10 years earlier than nonsmokers.


The black market in cigarettes doesn't include a population where the smoking age is 21. This could well change things.
 
Death of Eric Garner there are a lot of people that have gone to jail for selling cigarettes you fail to see the stupidity in the US justice system in the 90s they like throwing people in jail.
and sorry dude Freedom of Choice trumps anything your father said prohibition for the most part always leads to more crime.

They were throwing him in jail for selling cigarettes without a tax stamp. IOW, it was tax evasion. Why would anyone pay taxes if they don't go to jail for evading them? The man was arrested over 50 times in his lifetime. What was he doing out of jail in the first place? Long before then you have proven yourself irredeemable and should probably be in for life. It is only a matter of time before you are thrown in again. Save the cost of the crime and the cost of the arrest and court costs.
 
That really wasn't on the political radar at that time. Somewhere between 25% and 30% of the population were smokers, many restaurants and workplaces still allowed smoking, and it was still much more acceptable by the general population. Some states, like Louisiana and New Mexico, had just introduced a minimum age for smoking less than 5 years earlier. It was an idea that only started gaining any political traction in the mid-2010s, and I think it was first implemented in 2016 (Hawaii and California).

Bill Clinton wouldn't support it unless it was already a broadly popular policy, so you'd need a much earlier POD to make smoking less acceptable to the general population.

That said, I personally would vote against anyone (including my current governor and representative in the House of Delegates) who implements that. If we as a society say that 18 is the age of adulthood, then they should enjoy the same personal autonomy as any other adult, including sexual autonomy, gun ownership, drinking, gambling, smoking, voting, serving in the military, signing their own contracts, etc. If we as a society want to make 21 the age of adulthood, then we should repeal the 26th Amendment.
 

Marc

Donor
The black market in cigarettes doesn't include a population where the smoking age is 21. This could well change things.

Possible, but when the legal age to buy tobacco has been raised, there is little evidence of a growing black market. An increase in the minimum age for buy alcohol, and little growth in illegal sales (outside of adults buying for minors) is indicative of the lack of interest in creating a serious black market - harder drugs are far more profitable.
And even factoring the potential costs of a black market, they are far less than the economic and social consequences of dealing with addiction.
Meanwhile thousands don't die - and does matter, for all of us.
 
That really wasn't on the political radar at that time. Somewhere between 25% and 30% of the population were smokers, many restaurants and workplaces still allowed smoking, and it was still much more acceptable by the general population. Some states, like Louisiana and New Mexico, had just introduced a minimum age for smoking less than 5 years earlier. It was an idea that only started gaining any political traction in the mid-2010s, and I think it was first implemented in 2016 (Hawaii and California).

Bill Clinton wouldn't support it unless it was already a broadly popular policy, so you'd need a much earlier POD to make smoking less acceptable to the general population.

That said, I personally would vote against anyone (including my current governor and representative in the House of Delegates) who implements that. If we as a society say that 18 is the age of adulthood, then they should enjoy the same personal autonomy as any other adult, including sexual autonomy, gun ownership, drinking, gambling, smoking, voting, serving in the military, signing their own contracts, etc. If we as a society want to make 21 the age of adulthood, then we should repeal the 26th Amendment.

I tend to agree, if we say someone 18 is an adult then they are an adult all the way.
 
Some thousands don't die.
Isn't that worth it?

I'm not so sure about that, I didn't start smoking till around 25, now it's a habit I'm struggling to break.

I think if people are going to smoke they will, they'll find someone to buy them, the black market always finds a way.
 
I guess it could create a black market, but would politicians or voters have cared?

While 30% of Americans might have been smokers, how old were they, and would they care about the freedoms of younger smokers?
 
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