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Suppose come 1931, China was in a better position to give the Japanese a real fight when the latter invade Manchuria -- could be a PoD as late as Zhang Xueliang just not being at Nanjing at the time (something like in this TL), or a result of a more effective reunification. Whatever the cause, say Japan still makes the conquest, but at a much greater cost.
How does this affect Japanese policy down the road? For that matter, how does this affect WWII?