WI:Bern '54: no "Wunder von Bern" - The Mighty Magyars win!

4 July 1954, Berne, Wankdorf Stadium, the sun is shining* and the in 32 games unbeaten Hungarian team wins the FIFA World Cup Final against the German underdogs, as everybody has expected.

What would it mean for the young Federal Republic to lose one of the founding myths and what could a win mean for Hungary?

*no Fritz Walter weather.
 
If you just run and go crazy with it, you can come up with a scenario where this leads to the West losing the Cold War.

Hungary wins World Cup leads propably to
No hungarian Revolution in 1956 leads propably to
Adenauers defeat in the german election of 1957 leads propably to
West Germany leaving NATO
 
I can't see, what it would have meant for Hungary,if they don't have suffered this unexpected defeat (I know not enough about it).


But Germany, without this big boost of self-esteem?

More bitterness over the past may be left, maybe even increase.
Lower economic growth.
Less self-esteem...and down it goes, bye, bye wirtschaftswunder.

If Adenauers westintegration will succeed without the rise in economy and confidence, but it will definitely look different (Franco-German Friendship, European Integration...).

Germany lost the war, but won the peace and Berne was a grate victory.
 
Oh my God, Germany not winning? That would be apocalyptical!

On the other hand...

I think you greatly over-estimate the influence of such a sporting event. Even coming second would be seen as a great success for the German newcomers (they didn't compete in 1950).

I really doubt that losing the finale could stop the "Wirtschaftswunder". There are so many factors which attribute to it. Also, it is well underway by 1954.

Also, I doubt that Adenauer would desastrously lose the 1957 election without the Hungarian uprising. Even if he loses 10% in comparison to OTL, the CDU/CSU would still remain biggest party but would need a coalition partner. The "Westbindung" was too deep at this point of time that this would lead to leaving NATO.

Concerning the Hungarian uprising, I imagine even more fervent Hungarian actions due a greater self-awareness. Why should a nation which managed to become the world's football champion like to be under Moscow's heel more?
 
You could have PODs of either the rain holding off, denying the Germans the advantage their boots and their wet-weather training had given them, or have Puskas' 89th minute goal ruled onside, or a penalty awarded for Sandor Kocsis in the final minute, with the penalty being scored and the game going in to extra-time. If extra-time was drawn, with no penalties to decide the match, there would be a replay two days later - which Hungary should win.

As for the aftermath:
- Adidas boots take longer to take off, and perhaps are less able to initially outstrip Puma and other boot manufacturers.
- Hungarian Revolution doesn't occur in 1956 as the Communist Party is able to draw upon the satisfaction created by World Cup victory.
- Germany follow their defeat in 1954 with fourth place in 1958 and (let's say) second in 1962 (to Brazil) - by the time 1966 comes around Germany are either more determined than ever, and triumph 3-1 over England in the final, or 'recognise' themselves as perennial nearly-men, losing to the Soviet Union in the semi-finals 1-0, setting up an England - Soviet Union final (which England probably lose). By 1974, despite having one of the best German teams ever, demoralisation plus a recognition that communist countries are best at football causes Germany to lose in the semi-finals to Poland - the Dutch winning the final with their Total Football.
- This defeat, coupled with an economic decline in Poland leads to a Polish uprising in 1976, crushed by Soviet military intervention, with assistance from East Germany and Czechoslovakia. The Archbishop of Krakow, a Karol Wojtyla is shot, causing an international incident between the Soviet Union and the Vatican City. Tensions within Hungary finally bubble over. The combination of these events in Europe prevent Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, which falls in to a state of anarchy, with fighting between a stubborn communist government and Islamic mujahideen.
- In 1978 Giovanni Benelli is elected Pope, becoming Pope John Paul II in honour of his predecessor, until his death in 1982.
- Italy win the 1978 World Cup, beating Argentina in the final, causing rioting, bringing down the military junta.

:eek:

Or maybe not!
 
Oh my God, Germany not winning? That would be apocalyptical!

On the other hand...

I think you greatly over-estimate the influence of such a sporting event. Even coming second would be seen as a great success for the German newcomers (they didn't compete in 1950).

I really doubt that losing the finale could stop the "Wirtschaftswunder". There are so many factors which attribute to it. Also, it is well underway by 1954.

Also, I doubt that Adenauer would desastrously lose the 1957 election without the Hungarian uprising. Even if he loses 10% in comparison to OTL, the CDU/CSU would still remain biggest party but would need a coalition partner. The "Westbindung" was too deep at this point of time that this would lead to leaving NATO.

Concerning the Hungarian uprising, I imagine even more fervent Hungarian actions due a greater self-awareness. Why should a nation which managed to become the world's football champion like to be under Moscow's heel more?

Rudolf Augstein (owner of the Spiegel) said later, that in 1956 everyone was sure that Adenauer would lose the next election and only the Rentenreform and Hungarian uprising changend that. Okay, Augstein got a lot things wrong in his life, but the truth is, that the CDU/CSU was a bit isolated in 1956. FDP and BHE (Refuge-party) had left Adenauers coalition and made a turn to nationalist/neutralist positions. In NRW the CDU-Goverment was replaced by a SPD/FDP-coalition and everyone saw this as an example for Bonn. The "Westbindung" were far from generaly accepted. Still in 1958 SPD and FDP fiercly attaked the Westbindung and the SPD proclaimed in 1959 her socalled "Deutschlandplan" http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutschlandplan.

If Adenauer hadn´t won a absolut majority (at least with ´the help of the small German Party) then a SPD/FDP/BHE-coalition would have taken over.

Actually if the CDU/CSU would be 5-6% weaker and the BHE would reach about 5% it would be enough for such a coalition.
 
Rudolf Augstein (owner of the Spiegel) said later, that in 1956 everyone was sure that Adenauer would lose the next election and only the Rentenreform and Hungarian uprising changend that.

Besides, Helmut Kohl also was said to lose in 1987, 1990 and 1994. He still won.

But the Rentenreform still would've happened, and it's not completely sure whether the Hungarians wouldn't have risen. Hungary had softened after Stalin's death already.

Anyway, football and communism are two different things. I don't see an influence. Maybe it's like this:
Hungary OTL: "We were so close and still lost! This sucks! Everything sucks! Like communism! Let's get rid of it!"
Hungary ATL: "We are world champion! We are the best! We deserve a better treatment! - Let's get rid of Communism!"

And even becoming "only" vice champion would be quite a success, in fact it would've been the greatest success of Germany at a world championship. Maybe they decide to try better the next time and win in 1958, or at the Euro championship in 1956.

Also note one thing about sport shoes: Puma was run by the brother of adidas' founder. Family troubles.
 
Besides, Helmut Kohl also was said to lose in 1987, 1990 and 1994. He still won.

But the Rentenreform still would've happened, and it's not completely sure whether the Hungarians wouldn't have risen. Hungary had softened after Stalin's death already.

.

Like I said, its a bit running wild and crazy with the POD, but its not unplausible. After all the defeat and the rumor that the hungarian goverment sold the game out, had lead to the first major public unrest in Hungary since the commies had taken over. And throwing yourself against soviet tanks demand lot of desparation. Maybe with the knowledge, that you have the world best, still undefeated soccer-team, live is so much brighter, that you don´t fell the need to die under tank-chains.
Actually the changes in West-Germany are in the begining not so big. Wirtschaftswunderland don´t go kaputt. I just want to say, that just in the hinsight Adenauer looks unbeatable in 1957. I don´t say this would all lead to an Anti-Adenauer-lanslide, I just say that CDU/CSU/DP had to win the absolut majority alone, because they had no other partner anymore. If you keep this in mind, then the election was much closer as it seems.
 
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