WI Berlinguer wins a government?

What if the Italian Communist Party, under Enrico Bwelinguer, win the election in 1976 (where, OTL, they came in a decent second)? (Specifically, I'm thinking probably a plurality, where a coalition with the socialists form a majority, but barring that a majority...)

How would Berlinguer, as PM, govern? What would be the effects on Italy's foreign relations? What are the other implications?
 
What if the Italian Communist Party, under Enrico Bwelinguer, win the election in 1976 (where, OTL, they came in a decent second)? (Specifically, I'm thinking probably a plurality, where a coalition with the socialists form a majority, but barring that a majority...)

How would Berlinguer, as PM, govern? What would be the effects on Italy's foreign relations? What are the other implications?

I'm afraid it's quite improbable. Such an idea implies that the Christian Democrats would lose big time in their Southern strongholds, and that the PSI and PDSI would forge an alliance with the Communists. Even with a PCI plurality, I think the PM wouldn't be communist. I'm pretty sure that the rightist elements, the military secret services -probably backed by the CIA- would attempt a coup, or at least increase the tension (we are in the middle of the Years of Lead here). Expect lots of terrorists bombings and assassinations from the far-right AND the far-left (the Red Brigades would be fiercely opposed to a PCI-led government, it would be labelled as "counter-revolutionary". Expect also commercial measures against Italy. At any rate, the government wouldn't last.
 
I totally agree with Captain Poplar.

While Berlinguer would've probably been the right man to stop the second part of the Italian First Republic (from the aftermath of the economic boom to the Mani Pulite process) he had no real possibility to get the role of Prime Minister via elections, and I don't think he really wanted that position: after all the PCI could have an ENORMOUS weight on the Christian Democrat governments saving them from votes of no-confidence in turn of the passing of many legislative proposals born from the left-wing minority, and even having two Communists elected as Heads of both Chambers during one of the frequent reshuffles.

Approaching to the subject less pragmatically, left-wing ideology is simply alien to the absolute majority of Italians, "It just isn't in our DNA" as my father (who lived the period of a Communist Party with 30% of the electoral vote) always says.
 
I totally agree with Captain Poplar.

While Berlinguer would've probably been the right man to stop the second part of the Italian First Republic (from the aftermath of the economic boom to the Mani Pulite process) he had no real possibility to get the role of Prime Minister via elections, and I don't think he really wanted that position: after all the PCI could have an ENORMOUS weight on the Christian Democrat governments saving them from votes of no-confidence in turn of the passing of many legislative proposals born from the left-wing minority, and even having two Communists elected as Heads of both Chambers during one of the frequent reshuffles.

Approaching to the subject less pragmatically, left-wing ideology is simply alien to the absolute majority of Italians, "It just isn't in our DNA" as my father (who lived the period of a Communist Party with 30% of the electoral vote) always says.

I agree, the PCI was very strong locally and real important with the administration of city large and small, but the only time where a revolution to form a people republic in Italy was possible was in the immediate aftermath of WWII with Togliatti (but not even him almost killed caused it, almost yes but not happened), after none want it really (not even the PCI dirigent), except some really vocal fringe.
 
I'm afraid it's quite improbable. Such an idea implies that the Christian Democrats would lose big time in their Southern strongholds, and that the PSI and PDSI would forge an alliance with the Communists. Even with a PCI plurality, I think the PM wouldn't be communist. I'm pretty sure that the rightist elements, the military secret services -probably backed by the CIA- would attempt a coup, or at least increase the tension (we are in the middle of the Years of Lead here). Expect lots of terrorists bombings and assassinations from the far-right AND the far-left (the Red Brigades would be fiercely opposed to a PCI-led government, it would be labelled as "counter-revolutionary". Expect also commercial measures against Italy. At any rate, the government wouldn't last.

So if the PCI won a plurality in 1976, that could be enough to lead to the collapse of the Republic, possibly even leading to a military coup?
 
A real coup might be out of question ; I wouldn't guarantee that the SID (the military secret service) wouldn't try something, as it was deeply involved in stay-behind NATO activities and firmly anti-communist (and not very democratic, anyway ; it was replaced by two separate agencies in 1977 for that reson, among others). The Army won't be loyal to the new Government. But on the other hand, the Colonels in Greece had been overthrown two years ago, as well as the Salazarist regime in Portugal, Spain was beginning to leave Francoism out... not a very good context for a coup.

I think it would have been more subtle : massive demonstrations for freedom organized by the DC and the Right, with massive support from the Church ; increased political violence, probably backed by the secret services. "Deep concern" from the US, France, the UK and Germany, maybe financial and commercial counter-measures from the US and the EEC to put the PCI at odds, then a rigged parliamentary vote by bribing some social-democrats and socialists, and Berlinguer is out.
 
Ah. I can see why TheBerlinguer says his namesake then wouldn't want to be PM... Would a PCI plurality then mean the DC seek a coalition with the socialist parties?

What would that look like? Maybe an earlier Bettino Craxi premiership?
 
The DC had already made coalitions with the Socialists and Social-Democrats in the 1960's, first with Fanfani (but only the Social-Democrats were involved), then with the Socialists, with Moro as Premier from 1963 to 1969). I suppose a DC-PSI-PDSI (and maybe PRI) coalition against a PCI plurality would work, but the DC would have to make serious concessions. Andreotti may back down, specifically, and have a low-profile role within the DC, Moro being the winner. This said, the PDSI, the PRI and the PSI didn't do very well in 1976, and I can't see a PSI-PDSI-PRI-DC-PLI work properly at that time, esepcially because the PCI would scream at "robbed elections" (and the unions would be in turmoil). The Left of the PSI may also oppose a great coalition with the center-right.

This said, Berlinguer had made many efforts to appease Italy's allies in case of PCI victory (he specifically mentioned that he wouldn't make Italy leave NATO, for instance), and Carter stated that a PCI victory would not be catastrophic...But Carter, you know...
 
At the time, the Socialist line was a left wing government: however, the very first leftist parties which would have refused such a line was Berlinguer's Communist Party. He was firmly opposed to the perspective of a left-only government, backing the perspective of a National Solidarity alliance with Socialists and Christian-Democrats as he feared a Chilean scenario and wanted a strong alliance against the Red Brigades.

I know he's sort of a national myth for leftists here in Italy, but considering what has happened in OTL and which social forces supported his Austerity program, I think that in such a scenario we would see:

-Massive capital flights due to Red Scare

- Berlinguer agreeing to the birth of a somewhat leftish inclined Christian Democratic government with members from the Independent Left parliamentary group (noncommunists elected within Communist ranks), maybe the Presidency of a House for his men.

- Tough enforcement of antiterrorism laws, leading to a bloodier end of the Anni di Piombo due to the PCI staunch fight against left-wing terrorism in fear of being associated with them

- A pre-monetarist economic policy, leading to a possibly balanced budget in later yearsì, maybe even some privatisations.

-a break up of the Christian Democracy might happen, with the birth of a non-fascist but very conservative National Right. This might lead to further dissatisfaction within Communist ranks, and with Soviet invasion of Afghanistan we might well see the socialdemocratisation of the Party and the birth of a pro-Soviet splinter Party. However, it would be a very conservative party, when speaking of social issues (civil rights, drugs and so on), so we will quite surely see huge success for the Radical Party, similar to german Greens. The Italian Socialist Party might survive or not, it depends on the balance of forces: Craxi, a forerunner of Tony Blair, might end up leading a Die Linke analogue with Lombardi and "Alternative Left" guys, especially if War on Terrorism gets really heavy.
Commercial television will develop much more slowly, and our participation to the European unification process will also be less committed, as Berlinguer wasn't much keen on it.

I don't think there will be any military coup. However, the Christian Democrats will probably rule for a good part of the 80s, maybe in alliance with former Fascists.

Today, we would probably be a somewhat poorer country, but with better macro-fundamentals.
 
My understanding is that the Italian Communist party was part of the Eurocommunism family and was not Stallinist, believed in the Democratic process to the core and supported Italian membership of NATO. A lot of lessons were learned by Normal communists during the Spanish Civil War when they were turned on by psychotic Stallinists! The main being keep away from them and be democratic at all times!
I have been told that when italy was occupied by the allies, the Americans in particular turned a blind eye to the mafia and activities but actively let communist partizans exposed to the NAZIS in an effort to get rid of as many of them as possible. Hence the mess Italy became after the war!
 

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I'm afraid it's quite improbable. Such an idea implies that the Christian Democrats would lose big time in their Southern strongholds, and that the PSI and PDSI would forge an alliance with the Communists. Even with a PCI plurality, I think the PM wouldn't be communist. I'm pretty sure that the rightist elements, the military secret services -probably backed by the CIA- would attempt a coup, or at least increase the tension (we are in the middle of the Years of Lead here). Expect lots of terrorists bombings and assassinations from the far-right AND the far-left (the Red Brigades would be fiercely opposed to a PCI-led government, it would be labelled as "counter-revolutionary". Expect also commercial measures against Italy. At any rate, the government wouldn't last.

I agree fully.;)
 
My understanding is that the Italian Communist party was part of the Eurocommunism family and was not Stallinist, believed in the Democratic process to the core and supported Italian membership of NATO. A lot of lessons were learned by Normal communists during the Spanish Civil War when they were turned on by psychotic Stallinists! The main being keep away from them and be democratic at all times!
I have been told that when italy was occupied by the allies, the Americans in particular turned a blind eye to the mafia and activities but actively let communist partizans exposed to the NAZIS in an effort to get rid of as many of them as possible. Hence the mess Italy became after the war!

Well Italy was a literal mess after the 43 and during the immediate postwar. The americans and the british maybe were not too quick to aide the communist partisan (trust issue), but nevertheless helped them. The problem it's that even the communist were not very keen to help the allies except the yugoslavs (still faithfull communist at the times) and many times they ehm...eliminate the partisan rivals of different politcal view.
But from the Praga Spring and the soviet invasions the PCI were more and more aligned to western value (NATO, democracy, private propriety) and more distant to Moscow (even if the tie will never totally broke), Berlinguer basically officilize that saying what the great part of the party base thinked. Frankly after a little red scare and general preocupation, people in Italy and NATO countries will ease up when nothing here really changed.
 
Let's be extremely clear, there is no chance that Berlinguer might try to create a People's Democracy.

He was still deep rooted in Communist ideals, but he was at huge distance from Moscow.

Probably, after Afghanistan, if he survived, he would take a stance similar to that of the Socialist People's Party in Denmark, left-wing non socialdemocratic radicalism.

It then depends on who gets the upper hand in the Party after the inevitable split with Soviets die hards, and what happens between the socialists at the same time.

If the Amendolian right wins, they will move towards socialdemocracy, but with friendly relations with the Eastern Bloc, ala Brandt.

Berlinguerians will grow more and more anti-Soviet, to buy legitimacy, maybe increasing cooperation with Yugoslavia and Deng China before Tien An Men. Then, it depends again: if the Ingrao radical wing prevails, they will become Linke-esque after the fall of the Berlin Wall. If the Berlinguerian centre prevails again, they will move towards socialdemocracy, and probably embrace neoliberalism even more enthusiastically than in OTL.

The Socialists, now: if De Martino goes on prevailing, he will eventually lead his Party towards unification with the Commies. Craxi and Lombardi, who at the time were close even though distinct, could create a Eurosocialist party, but with greater Keynesianism and a greater attention towards the extreme left. Paradoxically, they might become the Socialist People's Party of the country, whereas the Communist + leftwing socialists take a Scandinavian path, welfare state and social moderation.

If they defeat De Martino, they will have a similar position to OTL, eventually merge with socialdemocrats and we will have quite similar 80s with regards to leftist struggles for hegemony, but with no Pentapartito coalitions. In the end, centrist Commies and socialdemocrats will eventually merge, as the bad blood of the 80s with no Socialist coalitions with Andreotti will probably decrease after 1989.
 
Manfr, assuming that Aldo Moro lives, do you think that the PCI (probably excluding the pro-Soviet left) would join an enlarged center-left solution in late 1976 or 1977 ? (La Malfa-like Republicans would probably join in, don't you think ?) As for the socialists, would the ideological aggiornamento led by the Monde Operaio group produce earlier effects ? Would the Andreotti group within the DC favor a split and an alliance with the PLI and the MSI ? As for the Radicals, they always semmed to me that they were a very Italian answer to Catholic-Communist consensus about social conservatism, especially on family issues ...
 
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